Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Kansas City, MO

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 072118
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
417 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

MOC047-177-072145-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-070607T2145Z/
CLAY MO-RAY MO-
417 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
RAY AND EASTERN CLAY COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 415 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING 
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT THE INTERSECTION OF 291 AND I-35.  QUARTER SIZE 
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM
AS IT RACES NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  EXCELSIOR SPRINGS BY 425 PM CDT.
  CRYSTAL LAKES...WOODS HEIGHTS...EXCELSIOR ESTATES AND LAWSON BY 430
  PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF HOMESTEAD...RAYVILLE AND KNOXVILLE ARE ALSO IN THE PATH
OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

LAT...LON 3930 9451 3918 9444 3938 9393 3954 9403

$$

MJ

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 072134
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
433 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

MOC047-072143-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-070607T2145Z/
CLAY MO-
433 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CLAY COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

AT 431 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA 
...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. 
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3942 9421 3927 9422 3938 9393 3951 9401

$$

MOC177-072145-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-070607T2145Z/
RAY MO-
433 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL RAY
COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 431 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WOODS HEIGHTS...OR 6 MILES EAST OF
EXCELSIOR SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL
RAY COUNTY...INCLUDING THE TOWN OF KNOXVILLE.

AT 415 PM QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED AT THE INTERSECTION  OF 
HIGHWAY 291 AND I-35. 

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF
SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL
INTERIOR ROOM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3942 9421 3927 9422 3938 9393 3951 9401

$$

MJ

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 072144
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
444 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

MOC177-072154-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0051.000000T0000Z-070607T2145Z/
RAY MO-
444 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN RAY COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 445 PM CDT...

AT 444 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.

LAT...LON 3942 9421 3927 9422 3938 9393 3951 9401

$$

MJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
332 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...

WARM SECTOR AIRMASS CONTINUES TO UNDERGO AMPLE HEATING AND
MOISTENING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AND
DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES ON THE ORDER
2000 J/KG. DRYLINE HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY ACTIVE OVER THE PAST HOUR
OR SO...WITH MOST DISCRETE STORMS NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL
STORMS AND FAST MOVING MINI-BOW SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND
ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY KEEP THREAT OF LARGE HAIL
MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH THIS CAN BE AUGMENTED BY DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.

FURTHER SOUTH...DRYLINE HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM KANSAS CITY
TO SOUTHWEST OF LAWRENCE KANSAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT
WITH A CLASSIC TRAINING SETUP UNFOLDING OVER A VERY NARROW (10 MILE
WIDE) CORRIDOR. SLOW MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY
PER KEAX WSR-88D SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED FOR NOW
WITH A VERY HEIGHTENED CONCERN OF FLASH FLOODING. POTENT MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THIS REGION
BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z...AND COULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY RAPID INCREASE IN
STORM MODE EVOLUTION AND AN INCREASED SEVERE THREAT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION AFTER 06Z WITH DRYLINE
PASSAGE. BULK OF CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A MARKEDLY CHANGED DAY
TOMORROW WITH TEMPS SOME 15 DEGREES COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.

BOOKBINDER

EXTENDED (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AS AN AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THIS QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN FLOP BACK
INTO A MORE ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER ON SUNDAY.  MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN DECENT LONG WAVE PATTERN AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...IN
DEVELOPING YET ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS.  THE LOCAL AFFECTS OF THIS PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS SW FLOW ALOFT LIFTS TONIGHTS COLD
FRONT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.  NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATE WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 305K-310K SFC BEGINNING IN THE WESTERN ZONES
BY 06Z SAT.  HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS NORTHWARD
LIFTING FRONT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SVR DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  IF THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NEAR THE MO/IA BORDER BY
SUN AFT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT TO WARM WELL INTO THE MID-UPR 80S. EVEN THOUGH THE BEST SHEAR
WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ABLE TO WORK WITH THE AVAILABLE 20-30 KTS 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX OVER THE
AREA.

LCL WEATHER BECOMES MORE MUDDLED BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MODEL
DISCREPANCIES BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS.  GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS
ENSEMBLES AND 00Z ECMWF FOR THE MONDAY TO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AS
OPERATIONAL GFS IS SEEMS A BIG OUT OF PLACE AND IS SUFFERING FROM
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.  REGARDLESS...AFOREMENTIONED
MODELS SUGGEST A CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...MAKING
FOR A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL US.  CLOSER TO
HOME...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SWLY FLOW ALOFT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID-WEEK TIMEFRAME. STORMS
WILL LIKELY NOT BE WIDESPREAD...AS A RESULT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED.  THE LOCATION OF THE UPR RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH WARM AIR ALOFT WILL EXIST TO PREVENT DAILY
CONVECTION.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...WITH RATHER BREEZY SWLY FLOW
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
80S FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.  THESE TEMPERATURES MAY BE CONSERVATIVE
AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EVALUATE FURTHER.

DUX

&&

.AVIATION...

STARK CONTRAST BETWEEN ST. JOSEPH AND THE KANSAS CITY TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DRYLINE PASSAGE HAVING OCCURRED EARLIER AT KSTJ.

FOR THE ST. JOSEPH TERMINAL...PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE ENDED AND
WILL DEAL WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING WEST AND SLOWLY DIMINISHING
THIS EVENING. CLEAR SKIES MAY GIVE WAY TO VFR CEILINGS LATER TONIGHT
AS EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WRAPPING AROUND LARGE UPPER LOW APPROACHES.

FOR THE KANSAS CITY TERMINALS...BULK OF ACTIVITY REMAINING JUST
SOUTH OF KCI AND JUST NORTH OF DOWNTOWN AS DRYLINE HAS BECOME
STATIONARY IN THIS REGION. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME WIDESPREAD
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...SO ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE DOWNTOWN
AIRPORT GETS INUNDATED. FOR KCI...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH AND WILL AMEND TO VICINITY THUNDER SHORTLY.

BOOKBINDER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM THURSDAY FOR
     MOZ008-MOZ017-MOZ024-MOZ025-MOZ032-MOZ033-MOZ039-
     MOZ040-MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046-MOZ053-MOZ054.

KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
104 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-081815-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
104 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH TODAY. A
NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED ALONG A DRY LINE
WHICH EXTENDS FROM DES MOINES TO NEAR BETHANY TO JUST EAST OF ST
JOSEPH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE FROM SURFACE HEATING. VERY STRONG WIND
FIELDS EXTENDING WELL UP INTO THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT
SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SINCE THE WIND FIELDS ARE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND THE
FREEZING LEVEL IS SO HIGH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE EXTREME WIND FIELDS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY.

ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION
EAST OF AN EASTON KANSAS TO BETHANY LINE THE GREATEST THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE BETHANY...PRINCETON...TRENTON AND GALLATIN
AREAS. AFTER 5 PM AND CONTINUING INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF A LUCERNE TO ODESSA LINE.
THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF A BUTLER TO
SEDALIA TO BOONVILLE LINE BY MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER TO CARROLLTON
TO KIRKSVILLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ST JOSEPH TO BETHANY.

MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
313 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

KSZ103>105-MOZ028-029-072045-
CLAY-JOHNSON-LEAVENWORTH-PLATTE-WYANDOTTE-
313 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHERN JOHNSON...SOUTHEASTERN
LEAVENWORTH...SOUTHEASTERN PLATTE...SOUTHWESTERN CLAY AND WYANDOTTE
COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 307 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR DE SOTO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LAKE QUIVIRA BY 320 PM CDT.
  PARKVILLE...KANSAS CITY KANSAS AND KANSAS CITY DOWNTOWN ARPT BY 330
  PM CDT.
  OAKVIEW...RIVERSIDE...NORTHMOOR AND HOUSTON LAKE BY 335 PM CDT.
  GLADSTONE BY 340 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF MONTICELLO...ZARAH...LAKE OF THE FOREST...HOLLIDAY...
MAYWOOD...MUNCIE...POMEROY...BEVERLY HILLS...OAKS AND OAKWOOD ARE
ALSO IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.

WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
401 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0337 PM     HAIL             5 SE HAMILTON           39.69N 93.94W
06/07/2007  E1.00 INCH       CALDWELL           MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            IN ADDITION TO HAIL...WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED AT 65 MPH

&&

SWATSON