Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Kansas City, MO

000 
WWUS53 KEAX 072026
SVSEAX

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
325 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

MOC171-072035-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-070607T2030Z/
PUTNAM MO-
325 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN PUTNAM COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 330 PM CDT...

AT 322 PM CDT...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS PUTNAM COUNTY...SO 
STAY TUNED FOR ANY ADDITIONAL WARNINGS THAT MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN PLEASANT HILL.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.

LAT...LON 4049 9342 4038 9335 4058 9275 4057 9328

$$

PC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
300 AM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

.DISCUSSION...

FOCUS FOR DISCUSSION IS MAINLY IN THE NEAR TERM. FIRST CONCERN IS
THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS OVER EXTREME
NW MO ARE STILL NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA AS PROFILERS INDICATE A STG
70-80KT LLJ. DO NOT PLAN TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY AS THE NAM INDICATES
THAT THE LLJ WILL WEAKEN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE PRESSURE GRAD
ALSO RELAXING TOWARD DAYBREAK. REGARDLESS WILL STILL SEE WINDS GUSTS
TO AROUND 35 MPH THROUGHOUT THE NW CORNER.

AS FAR AS THE REST OF THE CWA IS CONCERNED...A STRATOCU/STRATUS DECK WAS
RACING NORTH OVER 50 KTS INTO OKLAHOMA. THIS LOW CLOUD DECK WILL
SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO MUCH OF THE CWA BY MID-MORNING...THUS INHIBITING
RAPID HEATING AND DEEP MIXING. THIS WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO
ACHIEVE ADVISORY WIND CRITERIA. CURRENT WIND ADVISORY OVER THE ERN
CWA FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE IN JEOPARDY. THE
PRESSURE GRAD CONTINUES TO RELAX THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH H8 WINDS
DROPPING TO 40 KTS. MIXING WILL BE RATHER DEEP...SO CANNOT RULE
OUT A SHORT PERIOD OF NR ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS. AS A RESULT...WILL
HOLD ADVISORY AND LET THE DAY SHIFT MONITOR.

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO THE CONVECTIVE THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. A STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL PULL INTO THE NRN PLAINS THIS
MORNING WITH A STRONG SURFACE LOW SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO MINNESOTA.
AS THESE FEATURES MOVE NORTHEAST...THE DRY LINE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
NORTHWEST MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION ALONG THE DRY LINE HAS
WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY THE PAST FEW HOURS...DUE TO DIURNAL COOLING AND
STG H7 CAP. MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NW CORNER
THIS MORNING...BUT AS THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TO A STJ TO
BETHANY LINE BY MID-AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY AS
THE CAP COOLS AND THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES SIGNIFICANTLY.

FCST MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CAPE VALUES AROUND 4000 J/KG NR THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT MODELS LOOK TOO BULLISH ON 72 TO 74
FCST DEWPOINTS. ADJUSTING MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR A MORE REALISTIC
DEWPOINT OF 68-70...CAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO A RANGE
BETWEEN 3000-3500 J/KG. STRONG INSTABILITY...STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL
SHEAR JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND FRONTAL FORCING NEAR THE SFC
BOUNDARY...SUGGEST THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF LINE SEGMENTS. THE
SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 50-70 KNOTS...SFC-1KM SHEAR AND VORTICITY
GENERATION PARAMETERS ARE ALSO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT. THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR ANY
SUPERCELL WOULD BE ON THE SWRN PORTION OF A LINE SEGMENT.
HOWEVER...THE RISK APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME AS THE SLIGHTLY VEERED LOW
LEVEL WIND PROFILES MAY PROVE UNFAVORABLE.

BY LATE EVENING THE TORNADIC THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS A COLD FRONT
RAPIDLY OVERTAKES THE DRY LINE WITH THE CONVECTIVE MODE LIKELY BEING
A STRONG SQUALL LINE.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THIS EVENT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY WITH SUCH A DRY AIR MASS ABOVE H8. LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOKING OK.

DB

.AVIATION...

FOR 06Z TAFS...WILL CONTINUE TREND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CARRYING
LLWS BETWEEN SURFACE AND 2K FEET...ESPECIALLY SINCE LLJ EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT. LLWS WILL DIMINISH BY MID-LATE
MORNING AS SURFACE MIXING INCREASES...HOWEVER LATER FORECAST MAY
HAVE TO EXTEND LLWS THREAT LONGER IF STRATUS ERODES LESS QUICKLY.
TIMING OF STRATUS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
FORECAST MODELS SEEM TO BE A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH RESPECT TO STRATUS
ADVECTION GIVEN CURRENT LATEST SATELLITE AND AVIATION OBSERVATIONS
DETECTING ONLY A SMALL AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. WILL DELAY ARRIVAL OF STRATUS INTO TAF SITES UNTIL AFTER 12
UTC WITH CEILINGS BETWEEN 2.5-3K FEET STILL LOOKING REASONABLE.

LATEST FORECAST MODELS FAR MORE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH 21 UTC...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CB DEVELOPMENT
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE TO ENHANCED CONVERGENCE. TO BE CONSISTENT
WITH GRIDS WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND OF PREVAILING
SCATTERED CB IN MAIN BODY OF TAF AND WILL ADD A VERY SHORT DURATION
PROB30 GROUP TO COVER TSRA DEVELOPMENT.

SF

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM THURSDAY FOR
     MOZ008-MOZ017-MOZ024-MOZ025-MOZ032-MOZ033-MOZ039-
     MOZ040-MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046-MOZ053-MOZ054.

KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
104 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-081815-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
104 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH TODAY. A
NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED ALONG A DRY LINE
WHICH EXTENDS FROM DES MOINES TO NEAR BETHANY TO JUST EAST OF ST
JOSEPH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE FROM SURFACE HEATING. VERY STRONG WIND
FIELDS EXTENDING WELL UP INTO THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT
SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SINCE THE WIND FIELDS ARE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND THE
FREEZING LEVEL IS SO HIGH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE EXTREME WIND FIELDS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY.

ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION
EAST OF AN EASTON KANSAS TO BETHANY LINE THE GREATEST THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE BETHANY...PRINCETON...TRENTON AND GALLATIN
AREAS. AFTER 5 PM AND CONTINUING INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF A LUCERNE TO ODESSA LINE.
THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF A BUTLER TO
SEDALIA TO BOONVILLE LINE BY MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER TO CARROLLTON
TO KIRKSVILLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ST JOSEPH TO BETHANY.

MJ