Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
640 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...

WARM SECTOR AIRMASS CONTINUES TO UNDERGO AMPLE HEATING AND
MOISTENING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AND
DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 70F ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPES ON THE ORDER
2000 J/KG. DRYLINE HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY ACTIVE OVER THE PAST HOUR
OR SO...WITH MOST DISCRETE STORMS NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL
STORMS AND FAST MOVING MINI-BOW SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES THE PRIMARY THREATS. HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND
ONLY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY KEEP THREAT OF LARGE HAIL
MARGINAL...ALTHOUGH THIS CAN BE AUGMENTED BY DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.

FURTHER SOUTH...DRYLINE HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY FROM KANSAS CITY
TO SOUTHWEST OF LAWRENCE KANSAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTED
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT
WITH A CLASSIC TRAINING SETUP UNFOLDING OVER A VERY NARROW (10 MILE
WIDE) CORRIDOR. SLOW MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY
PER KEAX WSR-88D SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT MAY BE LIMITED FOR NOW
WITH A VERY HEIGHTENED CONCERN OF FLASH FLOODING. POTENT MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THIS REGION
BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z...AND COULD RESULT IN A FAIRLY RAPID INCREASE IN
STORM MODE EVOLUTION AND AN INCREASED SEVERE THREAT.

ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE REGION AFTER 06Z WITH DRYLINE
PASSAGE. BULK OF CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE THE REGION...ALLOWING FOR A MARKEDLY CHANGED DAY
TOMORROW WITH TEMPS SOME 15 DEGREES COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTING INTO THE REGION.

BOOKBINDER

EXTENDED (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AS AN AREA
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THIS QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER LOOKS TO ONCE AGAIN FLOP BACK
INTO A MORE ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER ON SUNDAY.  MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE IN DECENT LONG WAVE PATTERN AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...IN
DEVELOPING YET ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST OF THE
CONUS.  THE LOCAL AFFECTS OF THIS PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BE FELT ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS SW FLOW ALOFT LIFTS TONIGHTS COLD
FRONT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT.  NAM/GFS BOTH INDICATE WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 305K-310K SFC BEGINNING IN THE WESTERN ZONES
BY 06Z SAT.  HOWEVER...THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THIS NORTHWARD
LIFTING FRONT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SVR DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  IF THE WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NEAR THE MO/IA BORDER BY
SUN AFT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT TO WARM WELL INTO THE MID-UPR 80S. EVEN THOUGH THE BEST SHEAR
WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ABLE TO WORK WITH THE AVAILABLE 20-30 KTS 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES TO CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR WX OVER THE
AREA.

LCL WEATHER BECOMES MORE MUDDLED BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MODEL
DISCREPANCIES BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS.  GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS
ENSEMBLES AND 00Z ECMWF FOR THE MONDAY TO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AS
OPERATIONAL GFS IS SEEMS A BIG OUT OF PLACE AND IS SUFFERING FROM
QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK.  REGARDLESS...AFOREMENTIONED
MODELS SUGGEST A CONTINUED DEEPENING OF THE WESTERN TROUGH...MAKING
FOR A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL US.  CLOSER TO
HOME...WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SWLY FLOW ALOFT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR STORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE MID-WEEK TIMEFRAME. STORMS
WILL LIKELY NOT BE WIDESPREAD...AS A RESULT ONLY LOW CHANCE POPS ARE
WARRANTED.  THE LOCATION OF THE UPR RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH WARM AIR ALOFT WILL EXIST TO PREVENT DAILY
CONVECTION.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...WITH RATHER BREEZY SWLY FLOW
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE UPPER
80S FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.  THESE TEMPERATURES MAY BE CONSERVATIVE
AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO EVALUATE FURTHER.

DUX

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE ST. JOSEPH TERMINAL...PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE ENDED.
PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND A WIND SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. VISIBLE AND IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUE TO TRACK AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUD COVER WRAPPING
AROUND THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR THIS VFR CLOUD DECK TO REACH THE TERMINAL JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE FRIDAY.

FOR THE KANSAS CITY TERMINALS...LITTLE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED SINCE THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS AS THE DRYLINE HAS NEARLY HALTED ITS FORWARD PROGRESS. WHILE
THE BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF KCI THIS EVENING...
HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE VCTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE THE FRONT
EDGES A LITTLE FARTHER EAST BY 03Z.  OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MKC TERMINAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. CURRENT MESOSCALE MODEL OUTPUT TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SLOW SHIFT OF THIS CONVECTION TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.
THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE FEATURES A CONTINUATION OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
03Z...WITH VICINITY THUNDER FOR A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER IN CASE THE
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS ACTIVITY IS SLOWER THAN FIRST THOUGHT.

GAGAN

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM THURSDAY FOR
     MOZ008-MOZ017-MOZ024-MOZ025-MOZ032-MOZ033-MOZ039-
     MOZ040-MOZ044-MOZ045-MOZ046-MOZ053-MOZ054.

KS...NONE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
104 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-081815-
ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-
JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-
PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-
BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-
RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-
CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
104 PM CDT THU JUN 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL
AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH TODAY. A
NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED ALONG A DRY LINE
WHICH EXTENDS FROM DES MOINES TO NEAR BETHANY TO JUST EAST OF ST
JOSEPH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE FROM SURFACE HEATING. VERY STRONG WIND
FIELDS EXTENDING WELL UP INTO THE ATMOSPHERE WILL PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT
SHEAR WHICH WILL HELP SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SINCE THE WIND FIELDS ARE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND THE
FREEZING LEVEL IS SO HIGH THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE FROM
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE DUE TO THE EXTREME WIND FIELDS AND INCREASING INSTABILITY.

ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE REGION
EAST OF AN EASTON KANSAS TO BETHANY LINE THE GREATEST THREAT OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE BETHANY...PRINCETON...TRENTON AND GALLATIN
AREAS. AFTER 5 PM AND CONTINUING INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS THE BEST
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF A LUCERNE TO ODESSA LINE.
THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF A BUTLER TO
SEDALIA TO BOONVILLE LINE BY MIDNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF A LINE FROM BUTLER TO CARROLLTON
TO KIRKSVILLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ST JOSEPH TO BETHANY.

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
624 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 SW TRIPLETT           39.48N 93.22W
06/07/2007  E80 MPH          CHARITON           MO   STORM CHASER

            WINDS ESTIMATED TO BE GREATER THAN 80 MPH WITH LARGE TREE
            BRANCHES DOWN. IN ADDITION...2 INCH DIAMETER HAIL
            REPORTED DURING THE SAME EVENT.

&&

SWATSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
629 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     HAIL             W BOSWORTH              39.47N 93.34W
06/07/2007  E1.00 INCH       CARROLL            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY SPOTTER...ACCOMPANIED BY
            HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

SWATSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
638 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E BONNER SPRINGS      39.08N 94.86W
06/07/2007                   WYANDOTTE          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            KANSAS HIGHWAY 32 CLOSED BETWEEN BONNER SPRINGS AND
            EDWARDSVILLE DUE TO WATER OVER THE ROADWAY. IN
            ADDITION...FLOODING WAS REPORTED ON EAST MISSION CREEK

&&

SWATSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
644 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE EDWARDSVILLE       39.10N 94.79W
06/07/2007  M67.00 MPH       WYANDOTTE          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIND GUST MEASURED AT THE INTERSECTION OF KANSAS AVENUE
            AND INTERSTATE 435

&&

SWATSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
651 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 WNW CLAYCOMO          39.22N 94.56W
06/07/2007  E50 MPH          CLAY               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER OBSERVED 50 MPH WINDS...ALONG WITH PEA SIZED
            HAIL.

&&

SWATSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
653 PM CDT THU JUN 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             NORBORNE                39.30N 93.68W
06/07/2007  E1.75 INCH       CARROLL            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL REPORTED

&&

SWATSON