Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1130 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2007

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT TO REFLECT
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THINKING FOR CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION LATER.
16Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR
THUNDER BAY TO KAEL TO FAR SERN SD. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE HAVING
NO TROUBLE REACHING THE 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT SEEING AN OCCASIONAL
SPRINKLE OUT OF THE VERY HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE CWA...SO HAVE
DROPPED POPS FOR THE REST OF MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE
ISOLATED CATEGORY. DECK OF THICK CI IS PUSHING SELY THROUGH THE
AREA...WITH BREAKS BEHIND IT ALREADY WORKING INTO THE NRN TIER
AHEAD FO THINNER CI. TEMPS TODAY ARE JUMPING UP FASTER THAN
FCST...AND WITH THINKING OF THINNER CLOUDS AND LESS PRECIP DURING
THE DAYTIME...HAVE INCREASED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. BELIEVE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WEST OF THE CWA IN NW/N CTRL IA...EVOLVING
INTO AN MCS THAT MOVES ACROSS THE BDRY INTO THE CWA IN THE LATER
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SHORTWAVE DIVING OUT OF THE DAKOTAS WILL
PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...AND INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER HIGH
IF CLOUDS BREAK UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST INTERMITTENT SUN. SPC
MODERATE RISK REMAINS OVER THE CWA MAINLY FOR WIND THREAT THIS
EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS...AS HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND
FAIRLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE MAY KEEP HAIL IN CHECK. HEAVY RAIN REMAINS
A THREAT...AND WITH MANY PARTS OF THE CWA SEEING 2-5 INCHES OF
RAIN SO FAR THIS WEEK...WILL NEED TO MONITOR FLOODING THREAT
CLOSELY AS MCS EVOLVES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-
     STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

MAYES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
852 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2007

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-191400-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
852 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS A
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN
CENTRAL AND WESTERN IOWA AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...AIDED
BY A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
INTO A COMPLEX THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS UP TO OR EXCEEDING 70-80 MPH...AND HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL
COMPOUND CURRENT FLOODING CONDITIONS. THE SATURATED GROUND WILL
MAKE THE AREA PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS
DAMAGE TO VEGETATION. A SECONDARY THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FROM HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
COULD ALSO OCCUR IF ANY ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP IN THE AREA NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MEMPHIS TO MACOMB. IN
ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE ONGOING ON THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ONE INCH AND
ANY FLOODING AS WELL AS SEVERE WEATHER.

A CONFERENCE CALL FOR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATORS WILL BE
CONDUCTED AT 1230 PM CDT.

MAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
628 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2007

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087-088-ILZ015-190200-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-CEDAR IA-CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DUBUQUE IA-
HENRY IA-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-
KEOKUK IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-MUSCATINE IA-ROCK ISLAND IL-SCOTT IA-
WASHINGTON IA-
628 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2007

...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 PM...

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WERE ENTERING THE REGION. THEY ARE
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 TO 50 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50
MPH. FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR RAPIDLY DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS. SEEK
SHELTER IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES. ALSO BE ON THE LOOKOUT
FOR FLOODED ROADS AND STREAMS. TURN AROUND...DO NOT DROWN.

JAZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
633 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0632 PM     TSTM WND GST     GARRISON                42.14N 92.14W
07/18/2007  E45 MPH          BENTON             IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

TERRYS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
640 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0638 PM     TSTM WND GST     VAN HORNE               42.01N 92.09W
07/18/2007  E50 MPH          BENTON             IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0638 PM     TSTM WND GST     VINTON                  42.16N 92.03W
07/18/2007  E50 MPH          BENTON             IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

TERRYS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
641 PM CDT WED JUL 18 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 PM     TSTM WND GST     S MOUNT AUBURN          42.26N 92.09W
07/18/2007  E80 MPH          BENTON             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

TERRYS