River Flood Warning 14, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
330 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2007

.DISCUSSION...
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 12Z THU...BUT REMOVE
BACK THE SOUTHERN 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES OR SO WITH BULK OF HEAVY RAIN
NOT OCCURRING IN THOSE AREAS TIL AROUND 12Z THU OR AFTER THAT.
OTHERWISE...ONGOING COMPLEX ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER ALL THE WAY INTO
EAST CENTRAL IL...FED AGAIN BY NICE LLVL WSW CONVERGING FLOW FULL
OF THTA-E RICH-HIGH PW AIRMASS...TO BE JUST THE PRECURSOR EVENT THIS
MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER MAJOR DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL POPS GOING THIS MORNING ACRS AT LEAST THE
NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE DVN CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS CONVERGENT FLOW
CONTINUING TO IMPINGE ON THE MAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THERMAL BOUNDARY
...AS WELL AS LINGERING OUTFLOW/COOL POOL LEFT OVER FROM THIS
MORNING/S CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. WATER TROUBLE/FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE MAIN THREAT THIS MORNING IN AN ALMOST TROPICAL PROFILE
LIMITING SVR POTENTIAL...AS STORMS FORM AND TRAIN ALONG AREAS FROM
NORTHEAST IA INTO NORTHWEST IL. LINGERING CONVECTION/DEBRIS SHOULD
KEEP TEMPS DOWN AGAIN ACRS THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE FCST AREA WELL
BELOW GUIDANCE...WITH LARGE CONTRAST DEVELOPING WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 90S ON EDGE OF HEAT
DOME.

W/V INDICATING A RATHER VIGOROUS VORT OVER EASTERN ID INTO MT...WHICH
WILL LOOK TO RIDGE RIDE DOWN ACRS SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHWEST IA BY
THIS EVENING. BACKING H925 AND H85 MB FLOW WILL AGAIN REFOCUS AND
CONVERGE ON THE SD/NEB/NORTHWEST IA TRI-STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MCS DEVELOPMENT IN THAT REGION AS WELL AS
POSSIBLY DOWN INTO CENTRAL IA DEPENDING ON MID LEVEL CAP
UNDULATIONS...WITH OPTIMUM VEERING OF LLVL FEED OF HIGH CAPE AND HIGH
PW/S OF OVER 1.8 INCHES AND THTA-E JUICED AIRMASS FEEDING RESULTANT
COMPLEX ACRS THE NORTH HALF TO 2/3S OF THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. EXTENT OF FORCING AND MOISTURE FEED WITH PW/S PROGGED
TO CLIMB OVER 2 INCHES TONIGHT SUGGEST VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IN
STORE AGAIN FOR MAINLY THE NORTH HALF ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80...WITH
A POSSIBLE 2-6 INCHES ADDITIONAL ON TOP OF WHAT IS OCCURRING THIS
MORNING. THIS COULD SET UP A VERY SERIOUS FLASH FLOODING/FLOODING
EVENT TONIGHT FOR THESE AREAS AND WILL STRESS POTENTIAL IN FFA
UPDATE. EXTRA FORCING AND SUPPORT FROM ALOFT AND HIGH CAPE COULD MEAN
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACRS CENTRAL IA INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHWEST
DVN CWA. FCST SOUNDINGS/THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST DAMAGING WINDS
OF OVER 70 MPH A REAL THREAT...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR EVEN AN
ISOLATED TORNADO ALONG ANY BOUNDARY OR DISCONTINUITY LINE. AGAIN
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THIS MAY BE JUST UPSTREAM ACRS CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST IA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. QUARTER SIZE HAIL A
SECONDARY THREAT.

HEAVY RAIN AXIS SHIFTS ACRS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA ON THU AS
SEASONABLY STRONG BACKDOOR CANADIAN HIGH SHUNTS WHOLE BAROCLINICITY
REGION SOUTHWARD. ECMWF SIGNALS OF EXTENT OF INCOMING LOWERING
THICKNESSES AND THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST AFTER LOWS DIPPING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 50S FRI MORNING/POSSIBLY EVEN SOME 40S IN THE
NORTH/HIGHS MAY HAVE TROUBLE GETTING OUT OF THE 70S FOR FRI
AFTERNOON HIGHS. MAINLY MINOR COOLING TRENDS ADJUSTED FOR INTO THE
WEEKEND...OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO EXTENDED FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH INTERVALS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS FROM HEAVY RAIN FOR
DBQ AND LESSER EXTENT CID/MLI TAF LOCATIONS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH 16Z.   THEN VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL MID
PM...OR AFTER 20Z WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS RE-FIRING ALONG/NORTH OF
I-80. INCREASING COVERAGE OF MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z
IN STRONGER TSRA/SHRA WITH CEILINGS 500-2000FT AND VISIBILITIES 1 TO
3 MILES.    ..NICHOLS..

&&

DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ALL
OF EASTERN IOWA EXCEPT VAN BUREN AND LEE COUNTIES.
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ALL
OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL IL EXCEPT HANCOCK AND MCDONOUGH
COUNTIES.
MO...NONE.

&&

12/NICHOLS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
852 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2007

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-191400-
BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
852 AM CDT WED JUL 18 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS A
CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN
CENTRAL AND WESTERN IOWA AS A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...AIDED
BY A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
INTO A COMPLEX THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS UP TO OR EXCEEDING 70-80 MPH...AND HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL
COMPOUND CURRENT FLOODING CONDITIONS. THE SATURATED GROUND WILL
MAKE THE AREA PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS
DAMAGE TO VEGETATION. A SECONDARY THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE FROM HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
COULD ALSO OCCUR IF ANY ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP IN THE AREA NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MEMPHIS TO MACOMB. IN
ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 AS STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE ONGOING ON THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THE MAIN THREATS WOULD BE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT HEAVY RAINFALL OVER ONE INCH AND
ANY FLOODING AS WELL AS SEVERE WEATHER.

A CONFERENCE CALL FOR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATORS WILL BE
CONDUCTED AT 1230 PM CDT.

MAYES

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