River Flood Advisory 6, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
243 PM CDT TUE JUL 17 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR REGION INTO THURSDAY WITH AT
LEAST SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MCSS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. UPPER TROF DEEPENS ERN U.S. SENDING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...ENDING THE RAIN. COOLER AND
MUCH LESS HUMID AIR EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK...THEN A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS BUILD AND CANADIAN
HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTRIBUTING TO BAND OF PERSISTENT TSTMS
ACROSS ERN IOWA AND WESTERN IL. RAIN COOLED AIR WITH TEMPS IN THE
60S VS 90S TO OUR WEST. THIS SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING
TSTMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH GOOD SHEAR...PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 2 INCHES AND MID TEENS
850 DWPTS FEEDING INTO REGION...WILL CONTINUE WITH THREAT OF VERY
HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER. ISOLD TORS AND VERY LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE IT BECOMES MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. WAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOP IN SW MN WILL HELP WITH LIFT.
PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME INTO WEDNESDAY. ALREADY MANY AREAS HAVE
SEEN 1-4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLD HIGHER AMOUNTS...SO WILL EXTEND
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALL THE WAY TO 12Z THURSDAY. SWOMCD ISSUED BY SPC
INDICATES CONVECTIVE WATCH COMING OUT SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON.
..HAASE..

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...
HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO CONTINUE WED NIGHT SO HAVE
EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO 12Z THURSDAY FOR ENTIRE CWA. COLD FRONT
WILL FINALLY GET SHOVED SOUTH OF REGION AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ENDING
THE PCPN. ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TREND OF COOLER/DRIER AIR FOR LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HEIGHTS BUILD. WITH UPPER HIGH PROGGED IN THE NRN
PLAINS AND UPPER LOW IN THE OHVLY...OUR REGION SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
IN THE 80S. ALSO WET GROUND SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM GETTING INTO THE
HOT CATEGORY. ..HAASE..

&&

.AVIATION...

INTERMITTENT TSRA ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z AT ALL
SITES AND PERHAPS LINGERING LONGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT
KDBQ/KMLI.  WITHIN TSRA...VIS DOWN TO 1-2 SM AND IFR CIGS ARE
LIKELY.  OUTSIDE THE SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREDOMINATE WITH SOME MVFR CIGS NEAR KMLI/KDBQ BEFORE 06Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY AROUND 12Z THROUGH 18Z TOMORROW.

MAYES

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

HAASE/MAYES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
505 AM CDT TUE JUL 17 2007

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-181000-
BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO-
CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL-
HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA-
JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA-
MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL-
SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL-
WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL-
505 AM CDT TUE JUL 17 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
MISSOURI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FAVORABLE SET UP WILL PRODUCE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
IMPACT MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND THEN AGAIN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS OF
TO 70 MPH OR HIGHER...AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL WILL IMPACT AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND NORTH OF A KEOSAUQUA...TO
MONMOUTH LINE THROUGH 9 AM CDT. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
STRONG STORMS THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HAIL
UP AT LEAST HALF INCH IN DIAMETER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF 1 TO 2
INCHES CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED FROM THE STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
URBAN OR SMALL STREAM FLOODING...OR EVEN FLASH FLOODING IN AREAS THAT
ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

MORE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REFORM ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM FAIRFIELD...TO
MONMOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IF TEMPERATURES CAN WARM UP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S...THESE STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE THE ABILITY
TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL FROM 3 PM TO
10 PM TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO MAY ALSO OCCUR FROM ANY STRONG
STORM MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY.

REPEATED HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THE RISK
OF FLASH FLOODING AND RIVERS FLOWING OUT OF THEIR BANKS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN SOME LOCATIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAVERING THROUGH THE REGION...PRODUCING
MORE EPISODES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE POTENTIAL CONTINUES
FOR MORE HEAVY RAIN RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL FLOODING. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CONTINUED RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LEVELS...
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND AGAIN TONIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING RELAYED TO THE
WEATHER SERVICE WOULD BE MUCH APPRECIATED.

12

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