Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
817 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

.AVIATION...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR ALI...VCT AND CRP
TAF SITE THROUGH AROUND 01Z AS AN MCS MOVES THRU S TX. LRD IS
CURRENTLY VFR HOWEVER A SUPERCELL THAT IS WEAKING IN MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TWD LRD AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...BUT STILL MAY
PRODUCE LIFR CONDITIONS BRIEFLY FOR LRD AS IT MOVES THRU THE AREA.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE THROUGH WED MORNING AS THE MCS
AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW EXIT TO THE E AND NE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007/

UPDATE...HAD COORDINATED WITH SPC FOR TORNADO WATCH 61 WHICH
ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CWA AND PORTIONS OF OUR MARINE AREA.
CURRENTLY SFC TROF BISECTING CWA WITH TRIPLE POINT TO THE SOUTH OF
THE REGION IN HEBBRONVILLE. THIS TRIPLE POINT AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD FROM PANHANDLE TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TONIGHT. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SVR WX AND FLASH FLOODING ZONES IN
REALLY GOOD SHAPE WITH CURRENT NOMENCLATURE AND INDICATION OF
WATCHES. PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MODERATE
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEER EXISTS WITH HIGHER HELICITY VALUES
OVER BEE AND GOLIAD COUNTIES APPROACHING 400 J/KG. WITH THIS
SAID...TORNADO THREAT PARTICULARLY HIGH NORTH OF A LINE FROM
BEEVILLE TO PORT LAVACA THIS EVENING. FLASH FLOODING STILL HAS
HIGH POTENTIAL WITH TRAINING OF THE STORMS OVER THE SAME AREA.
AS UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT THE
WESTERN AREAS WILL HAVE A STRONG VORT LOBE SWINGING THRU. WITH
HIGH CAPES AND THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE WEST TSTMS POTENTIAL WILL
REMAIN HIGH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...AS THE UPR LOW
BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EWD TNT ACROSS THE STATE...THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SVR WX AND FLASH FLOODING WL EXIST ACROSS THE CWA. WIND
SHEAR WL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KT WHILE MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN. CAPES WL INCREASE TO OVER 2000 J/KG DURING THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST. WV IMAGERY INDICATED SVRL SPEED
MAXIMA AND A VORT LOBE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CWA TNT. WL THUS
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SVR WX FOR THE ENTIRE CWA TNT. DEEP MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITH PWS ABV 1.5 INCHES WL MAINTAIN A HVY RAIN THREAT.
BASED UPON CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS IN MCS ACTIVITY...THE
FLOODING POTENTIAL WL BE MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA. A SLY LLJ BETWEEN 25-35 KTS WL CONTINUE TO FEED COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THIS PART OF THE CWA. ALSO...THIS AREA
HAS ALREADY RECEIVED SVRL INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE YDA MORNING.
WED WL BE A TRANSITION DAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WL STILL EXIST ACROSS THE ERN AREAS AS THE UPR LOW PASSES
JUST TO OUR NORTH. MAY SEE SOME MORE STRONG STRONG STORMS WITH HVY
RAIN. MEANWHILE...SUBSIDENCE AND DEVELOPING SW/W BOUNDARY LYR FLOW
ACROSS THE WEST WL END PCPN CHCS RATHER ABRUPTLY BY WED MORNING.
LINGERING RAIN CHCS WL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NERN AREAS EARLY WED
EVENING. A DRYING TREND WL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY WED
AFTN AND EVENTUALLY ALL AREAS WED NIGHT. KEPT THE PREVIOUS TEMP
FCST.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS
BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST OF THE
CWA. AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...WE MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BREAKS MAY COME EARLIER AND MORE
OFTEN OUT WEST...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY REACH INTO THE
90S. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD ALLOW FOG
FORMATION AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

CONTINUING WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING TO USE CONSENSUS OF
SEVERAL MODELS TO PROJECT FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY MORNING. WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND NEGLIGIBLE SUPPORT...WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY
FORECAST AS THE FRONT PASSES.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORMALS AS FLOW TURNS BACK ONSHORE.

AVIATION...CEILINGS WL RISE ABV MVFR THRESHOLDS ACROSS MOST AREAS
THIS EVE EXCEPT ACROSS THE EXTREME NRN COUNTIES WHERE LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS AND THICKER CLOUD CVR WL EXIST. BY MIDNIGHT...MVFR
CEILINGS WL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. RAPID
LIFTING OF CEILINGS IS EXPECTED BURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WED AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM WEST. THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF SITES THROUGH WED AFTN AND ACROSS THE VCT
AREA THROUGH 00Z THU.

MARINE...WINDS MAY APPROACH LOW-END SCA ACROSS THE SRN BAYS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT PICKS UP. THE
GRADIENT WL THEN WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING 4-5 FT
SWELLS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  80  65  82  62  /  60  30  20  10  10
VICTORIA          61  75  60  81  59  /  80  50  20  10  10
LAREDO            64  89  66  94  62  /  60  10  10  10  10
ALICE             62  84  62  85  61  /  60  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          62  75  66  80  62  /  70  40  20  10  10
COTULLA           61  86  60  90  62  /  70  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        62  83  64  84  62  /  60  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       63  77  67  80  65  /  60  30  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...LA SALLE...LIVE
     OAK...MCMULLEN...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

SC/70...SHORT TERM
TE/81...AVIATION

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
507 AM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-141100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
507 AM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND DAY TIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE OF
STORMS TONIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS TO ALLOW
FOR A SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
GUSTS.

IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ON WEDNESDAY THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY
NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 37 AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
STORMS ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AREA TO BECOME SEVERE ON
WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

JR/BB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
808 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0805 PM     HAIL             10 SW GOLIAD            28.57N 97.51W
03/13/2007  E1.75 INCH       GOLIAD             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SHERIFF REPORTED GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL ON HIGHWAY 59

&&

NHAMPSHIRE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
809 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

TXZ232-233-246-140215-
BEE-GOLIAD-REFUGIO-
809 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING SOUTHERN BEE COUNTY AND WILL
MOVE INTO SOUTHERN GOLIAD AND REFUGIO COUNTIES...

AT 806 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BEEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

JM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
817 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0816 PM     HAIL             GOLIAD                  28.67N 97.39W
03/13/2007  E0.50 INCH       GOLIAD             TX   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JMETZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
825 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0821 PM     FLASH FLOOD      GOLIAD                  28.67N 97.39W
03/13/2007                   GOLIAD             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WATER ON HWY 59 WEST

&&

KROUSSY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
847 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     HAIL             5 E BEEVILLE            28.41N 97.67W
03/13/2007  E0.75 INCH       BEE                TX   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SMALL LIMBS DOWN AND PENNY SIZED HAIL ALONG HIGHWAY 202

&&

JMETZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
904 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

TXZ234-140230-
VICTORIA-
904 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING VICTORIA COUNTY...

AT 902 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM ALONG A LINE FROM VICTORIA TO MCFADDIN...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

JM