Flash Flood Warning 7, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

000 
WGUS74 KCRP 140124
FFSCRP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
822 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

TXC175-140300-
GOLIAD-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF GOLIAD
822 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR
GOLIAD COUNTY...

AT 820 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED
AREA.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WEESATCHE...
SCHROEDER...FANNIN AND CHARCO.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA. LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED WATER ON HIGHWAY 
59 JUST WEST OF GOLIAD.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

LAT...LON 2883 9722 2852 9722 2846 9747 2868 9773
      2888 9742

$$

TE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
740 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

.UPDATE...HAD COORDINATED WITH SPC FOR TORNADO WATCH 61 WHICH
ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE CWA AND PORTIONS OF OUR MARINE AREA.
CURRENTLY SFC TROF BISECTING CWA WITH TRIPLE POINT TO THE SOUTH OF
THE REGION IN HEBBRONVILLE. THIS TRIPLE POINT AND ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD FROM PANHANDLE TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TONIGHT. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SVR WX AND FLASH FLOODING ZONES IN
REALLY GOOD SHAPE WITH CURRENT NOMENCLATURE AND INDICATION OF
WATCHES. PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MODERATE
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEER EXISTS WITH HIGHER HELICITY VALUES
OVER BEE AND GOLIAD COUNTIES APPROACHING 400 J/KG. WITH THIS
SAID...TORNADO THREAT PARTICULARLY HIGH NORTH OF A LINE FROM
BEEVILLE TO PORT LAVACA THIS EVENING. FLASH FLOODING STILL HAS
HIGH POTENTIAL WITH TRAINING OF THE STORMS OVER THE SAME AREA.
AS UPPER LOW SWINGS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT THE
WESTERN AREAS WILL HAVE A STRONG VORT LOBE SWINGING THRU. WITH
HIGH CAPES AND THETA-E RIDGE OVER THE WEST TSTMS POTENTIAL WILL
REMAIN HIGH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...AS THE UPR LOW
BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EWD TNT ACROSS THE STATE...THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL SVR WX AND FLASH FLOODING WL EXIST ACROSS THE CWA. WIND
SHEAR WL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO AROUND 50 KT WHILE MID-LVL LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN. CAPES WL INCREASE TO OVER 2000 J/KG DURING THE
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OUT WEST. WV IMAGERY INDICATED SVRL SPEED
MAXIMA AND A VORT LOBE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CWA TNT. WL THUS
MAINTAIN A MENTION OF SVR WX FOR THE ENTIRE CWA TNT. DEEP MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WITH PWS ABV 1.5 INCHES WL MAINTAIN A HVY RAIN THREAT.
BASED UPON CURRENT AND EXPECTED TRENDS IN MCS ACTIVITY...THE
FLOODING POTENTIAL WL BE MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF THE
CWA. A SLY LLJ BETWEEN 25-35 KTS WL CONTINUE TO FEED COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE INTO THIS PART OF THE CWA. ALSO...THIS AREA
HAS ALREADY RECEIVED SVRL INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE YDA MORNING.
WED WL BE A TRANSITION DAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WL STILL EXIST ACROSS THE ERN AREAS AS THE UPR LOW PASSES
JUST TO OUR NORTH. MAY SEE SOME MORE STRONG STRONG STORMS WITH HVY
RAIN. MEANWHILE...SUBSIDENCE AND DEVELOPING SW/W BOUNDARY LYR FLOW
ACROSS THE WEST WL END PCPN CHCS RATHER ABRUPTLY BY WED MORNING.
LINGERING RAIN CHCS WL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NERN AREAS EARLY WED
EVENING. A DRYING TREND WL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY WED
AFTN AND EVENTUALLY ALL AREAS WED NIGHT. KEPT THE PREVIOUS TEMP
FCST.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS
BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW CONTINUES EAST OF THE
CWA. AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN...WE MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BREAKS MAY COME EARLIER AND MORE
OFTEN OUT WEST...WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY REACH INTO THE
90S. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RECENT RAINFALL SHOULD ALLOW FOG
FORMATION AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

CONTINUING WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING TO USE CONSENSUS OF
SEVERAL MODELS TO PROJECT FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY MORNING. WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND NEGLIGIBLE SUPPORT...WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY
FORECAST AS THE FRONT PASSES.

SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TO BRING COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY
REBOUND BACK ABOVE NORMALS AS FLOW TURNS BACK ONSHORE.

AVIATION...CEILINGS WL RISE ABV MVFR THRESHOLDS ACROSS MOST AREAS
THIS EVE EXCEPT ACROSS THE EXTREME NRN COUNTIES WHERE LINGERING
THUNDERSTORMS AND THICKER CLOUD CVR WL EXIST. BY MIDNIGHT...MVFR
CEILINGS WL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. RAPID
LIFTING OF CEILINGS IS EXPECTED BURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WED AS
DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY IN FROM WEST. THUNDERSTORMS WL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF SITES THROUGH WED AFTN AND ACROSS THE VCT
AREA THROUGH 00Z THU.

MARINE...WINDS MAY APPROACH LOW-END SCA ACROSS THE SRN BAYS AND
NEARSHORE WATERS THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT PICKS UP. THE
GRADIENT WL THEN WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. STILL EXPECTING 4-5 FT
SWELLS TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    62  80  65  82  62  /  60  30  20  10  10
VICTORIA          61  75  60  81  59  /  80  50  20  10  10
LAREDO            64  89  66  94  62  /  60  10  10  10  10
ALICE             62  84  62  85  61  /  60  20  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          62  75  66  80  62  /  70  40  20  10  10
COTULLA           61  86  60  90  62  /  70  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        62  83  64  84  62  /  60  20  20  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       63  77  67  80  65  /  60  30  20  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...BEE...CALHOUN...GOLIAD...LA SALLE...LIVE
     OAK...MCMULLEN...REFUGIO...VICTORIA.

GM...NONE.

&&

CORDERO/70...SHORT TERM
EVANS/81...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
507 AM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-141100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
507 AM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

COPIOUS MOISTURE WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
AND DAY TIME HEATING TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A LINE OF
STORMS TONIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH TEXAS TO ALLOW
FOR A SLIGHT RISK FOR SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
GUSTS.

IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ON WEDNESDAY THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY
NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 37 AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES
JUST NORTH OF THE REGION. THERE MAY BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
STORMS ACROSS THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS AREA TO BECOME SEVERE ON
WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

JR/BB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
422 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

TXZ233-234-132215-
GOLIAD-VICTORIA-
422 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE AFFECTING GOLIAD AND VICTORIA
COUNTIES...

AT 416 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 14 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF CUERO TO 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF GOLIAD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN GOLIAD AND NORTHERN VICTORIA COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF WEESATCHE...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

TE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
528 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

TXZ234-132330-
VICTORIA-
528 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING VICTORIA COUNTY...

AT 525 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF NURSERY...OR 13 MILES NORTH
OF VICTORIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN VICTORIA COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

TE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
539 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

TXZ231-232-132345-
BEE-LIVE OAK-
539 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING BEE AND APPROACHING LIVE OAK
COUNTIES...

AT 535 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WHITSETT...OR 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
CAMPBELLTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  NELL BY 555 PM CDT.
  PAWNEE BY 600 PM CDT.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN LIVE OAK AND NORTHWESTERN BEE COUNTIES...INCLUDING
THE CITIES OF WHITSETT...NELL AND PAWNEE...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO
TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

TE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
626 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     HAIL             WHITSETT                28.62N 98.28W
03/13/2007  E0.75 INCH       LIVE OAK           TX   PUBLIC

            LOCAL GAS STATION CLERK OBSERVED PENNY SIZED HAIL

&&

JMETZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
708 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             4 W NORMANNA            28.53N 97.86W
03/13/2007  M0.50 INCH       BEE                TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JMETZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
745 PM CDT TUE MAR 13 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0744 PM     HAIL             5 W NORMANNA            28.53N 97.87W
03/13/2007  E1.00 INCH       BEE                TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORT FROM HAM OPERATOR

&&

NHAMPSHIRE