Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
427 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2007

.SHORT-TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AFTER AN ACTIVE LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HERE AT WFO CRP THINGS HAVE FINALLY SETTLED DOWN AS
THE MCS HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE. WHILE THINGS HAVE STABILIZED
BEHIND THE MCS THERE WILL BE ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY LATER TODAY AS
LAST BIT OF ENERGY IN BASE OF UPR LOW CLIPS THE NRN CWA. SCT STORMS
WOULD BE PRIMARILY LOCATED ALONG AND N OF A COT-CRP LINE...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES UP IN THE NE CWA. STORMS WILL INITIALLY BE ROOTED
ABOVE THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. BUT MAY SEE ENUF SFC HEATING FOR
SFC BASED STORMS LATER IN THE AFTN. THE CORE OF THE H5 COLD POCKET
IS MOVING INTO THE NRN HALF OF THE AREA CURRENTLY. ELEVATED LAPSE
RATES WILL BE QUITE STEEP TODAY ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS COMBINED
WITH ABOUT 45 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREAT. SPCDY1 OUTLOOK COVERS THIS WELL AND HAS US IN
SLIGHT RISK BASICALLY ALONG AND NE OF I-37. WILL INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF SVR FOR THIS AREA. SW OF THIS LINE SHOULD REMAIN MORE
SUBSIDENT...AND ACTUALLY SEE SOME CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH MUCH WARMER TEMPS (POSSIBLY INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS)

PRECIP WILL QUICKLY END THIS EVENING. LIGHT BL WINDS...MOIST SOILS
AND CLEARING SKIES WILL LEAD TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL FOG NIGHT
TONIGHT. WILL CONT AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...THE OVERNIGHT STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WELL EAST OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF
PORT ARANSAS...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
TO THE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL MOVE MOVE EAST OF TEXAS WEDNESDAY EVENING AND RAIN
CHANCES WILL END. A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY
RESULTING IN SCEC CONDITIONS AND THEN WEAKEN TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY WITH A MODERATE NORTHEAST FLOW
IN ITS WAKE. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST...WINDS WILL VEER
SOUTHEAST AND BECOME MODERATE TO STRONG OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...MCS HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. 1500 FT
STRATUS DECK HAS DEVELOP ALONG AND S OF A COT-CRP LINE AND WILL
EXPAND N THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING (POSSIBLY
LOWERING IN SOME AREAS). MVFR (POSSB IFR) CIGS WILL PERSIST THRU
MID MORNING THEN SCT AND AROUND 18Z AND POSSB CLEAR ALL TOGETHER
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS (LRD). THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL TSTMS LATE MORNING THRU THE AFTN PRIMARILY ALONG AND N
OF A COT-RKP LINE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD ONCE AGAIN BCM SVR
WITH LARGE HAIL. THE STORMS WILL QUICKLY END THIS EVE...WITH VFR
CONDS AREA WIDE THE ABOUT 05Z. THEN AREAS OF FOG WILL QUICKLY DVLP
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...WEAK/SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY AND WILL RESULT IN AN EASTERLY
FLOW REGIME. THIS WILL RESULT IN PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG IN THE MORNING
TO LIFT INTO A STRATOCUMULUS LAYER BEFORE DISSIPATING IN THE
AFTERNOON(TAKING THE LONGEST OVER THE EAST). FOG WILL REFORM
THURSDAY NIGHT IN STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER BUT WILL ONLY BE PATCHY
AND WILL TRANSITION TO A STRATUS LAYER DUE TO LOW-LEVEL ASCENT FROM
AN ENCROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA FRIDAY WITH A NORTHEAST FLOW MAINTAINING AN EXTENSIVE
STRATOCUMULUS LAYER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED AS FORCING WILL BE TOO WEAK. ONLY NOTEWORTHY CHANGE TO
TEMPERATURES WAS TO RAISE MINS THURSDAY NIGHT. POST-FRONTAL SCEC
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE WATERS.

SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL BE MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH VEERING ONSHORE WINDS STRENGTHENING TO
BREEZY/WINDY CRITERIA(MODELS UNDERDOING SURFACE WINDS GIVEN THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MIXING POTENTIAL). STRATOCUMULUS WILL BE
RATHER PREVALENT BUT FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE.
MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. PERIODIC SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS
BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    80  62  82  66  75  /  30  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          74  59  81  61  72  /  50  10  10  10  10
LAREDO            88  65  93  68  80  /  10  10  10  10  10
ALICE             83  62  85  64  77  /  30  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          75  62  80  67  73  /  40  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           86  60  88  63  78  /  10  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        83  62  84  65  76  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       77  64  80  67  73  /  30  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

JR/76...SHORT TERM
BB/85...LONG TERM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
449 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2007

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-151100-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT OCONNOR-
COASTAL WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 TO 60 NM-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
449 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 37. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE
STORMS WILL QUICKLY END THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AREAS OF FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW 1 MILE ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS THURSDAY MORNING.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 37.

JR/BB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
918 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2007

TXZ234-141500-
VICTORIA-
918 AM CDT WED MAR 14 2007

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING VICTORIA COUNTY...

AT 913 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF SCHROEDER...OR 14 MILES
NORTHEAST OF GOLIAD...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

PEOPLE IN VICTORIA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITIES OF MISSION
VALLEY...NURSERY...AND VICTORIA SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION
CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

SMALL HAIL AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

TM