Severe Thunderstorm Warning 231, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
144 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

.SYNOPSIS...A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE REST OF TODAY WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE
DEVELOPING INTO A WARM FRONT AND MOVE NORTH DURING TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 621 IN EFFECT UNTIL
9PM THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO THE NEAR TERM.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
WEAK UPPER LOW FROM THE REMAINS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVE EAST
OF OHIO BY TUESDAY WITH A LITTLE MID AND UPPER RIDGING TRYING TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD HELP TO LESSEN THE
WIDESPREAD RAIN THREAT SOME TUESDAY AND MORE SO ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY SHOULD HELP TEMPS TO
RISE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SWRN PART OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED CONTINUES TO LOOK ON THE WARM AND WET SIDE...MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN THIS FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. WEDNESDAY WILL
SEE HIGH PRESSURE SET UP TO OUR EAST WHILE THE LINGERING STATIONARY
FRONT MOVES INTO LOWER ONTARIO. TEMPS WILL WARM UP A BIT ON
WEDNESDAY BUT BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR...WILL PROBABLY END UP SEEING
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SIMILAR THINKING ON
THURSDAY AS WELL SINCE A WEAK WAVE WILL BRUSH THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE DETAILS WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WORKED OUT LATER IN THE WEEK...GFS PAINTS A GOOD PICTURE
OF THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN BUT IS OVER-DOING SOME OF THE
SHORTWAVES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. COULD END UP SEEING SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY WITH DRY EVENINGS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BUT CONTINUITY AND NEWEST GUIDANCE HINT AT LEAVING CHANCE
POPS IN PLACE BOTH DAYS. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO WED AND THU.

FRIDAY THE H5 FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY WHILE THE SURFACE LOW JUST
TO OUR WEST ELONGATES AND SLOWS TO A CRAWL. EXPECTING THE COLD FRONT
TO SLOWLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND
EVENTUALLY INTO PA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP POPS IN PLACE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AND ATTEMPT TO DRY THINGS OUT BY SUNDAY. FINALLY LOOKS
LIKE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL TAKE HOLD OVER THE
MIDWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. AS MENTIONED...WILL SEE A BIT
OF A WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY LASTING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. DROPPED TEMPS INTO THE MID 70S FOR NEXT SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z WITH IFR/LIFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES. SOME THUNDER WILL
LIKELY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF FDY MFD CAK AND
YNG WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST BUT LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST
FURTHER NORTH. TONIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECTING IFR AT ALL SITES TIL ABOUT 15Z
WHEN RAIN WILL START TO TAPER OFF.

OUTLOOK...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE NON VFR
WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NON VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
BIG CONCERN IS THE STRENGTH OF THE EAST WINDS. THE NAM IS STRONGER
THAN THE GFS...THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE OVER THE EAST HALF OF
THE LAKE. THE GFS SEEMS BETTER SO WENT WITH THAT. THE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME NO RIP CURRENTS FORECAST...IT WILL BE CLOSE.

OUTLOOK...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY
AND THEN MAINLY A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>023-
     027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

SYNOPSIS...THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...THOMPSON
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...LEINS
MARINE...KIELTYKA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
125 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

OHZ003-006>014-018>023-089-211730-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-
ASHTABULA INLAND-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-
125 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
FOR THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF NORTHERN OHIO ROUGHLY FROM A LINE FROM
NEAR FINDLAY TO MANSFIELD TO CANTON. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OHZ017-027>033-036>038-047-211730-
HANCOCK-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-
MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
125 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 621 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPETED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LEZ142>149-162>169-PAZ001>003-211730-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OHIO-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO-CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-
SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
125 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.