Areal Flood Warning 10, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
246 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WAS NEARLY STATINARY ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WHILE A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
FRONT STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA WITH S/W MOVING EAST ALONG IT
OVERNIGHT. LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAIN TO
CONTINUE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 621 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM THIS
EVENING...AND FLOOD WATCH FOR THE OHIO COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY TRHOUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF AREA IN MORNING AND EXPECT TO
SEE A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WILL GO
WITH HIGH POPS IN MORNING CUTTING BACK TO CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WARM FRONT LIFT NE TUE NIGHT WHILE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD NWD FRONT WILL SLOW AND
HANG UP NW OF THE AREA. DEEP MOIST FLOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTH BUILDING IN...SURFACE COLD
FRONT GETS HUNG UP JUST TO THE N/NW OF THE AREA. THIS KEEPS THE
AREA IN MOIST SW FLOW. WITH WEAK S/W MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WILL
KEEP CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM GOING IN THE LONG TERM
FORECAST INTO SUNDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND IT WILL BE
LESS HUMID AND SOMEHAT COOLER THOUGH TEMPERTURES NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z WITH IFR/LIFR EXPECTED AT ALL SITES. SOME THUNDER WILL
LIKELY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS OF FDY MFD CAK AND
YNG WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST BUT LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST
FURTHER NORTH. TONIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECTING IFR AT ALL SITES TIL ABOUT 15Z
WHEN RAIN WILL START TO TAPER OFF.

OUTLOOK...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE NON VFR
WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH A THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AND NON VFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.

&&

.MARINE...
BIG CONCERN IS THE STRENGTH OF THE EAST WINDS. THE NAM IS STRONGER
THAN THE GFS...THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE OVER THE EAST HALF OF
THE LAKE. THE GFS SEEMS BETTER SO WENT WITH THAT. THE WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE TONIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME NO RIP CURRENTS FORECAST...IT WILL BE CLOSE.

OUTLOOK...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE LAKE WEDNESDAY
AND THEN MAINLY A SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ON THE LAKE THROUGH
THURSDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ003-006>014-017>023-
     027>033-036>038-047-089.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ142-
     143.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RANDEL
NEAR TERM...RANDEL
SHORT TERM...RANDEL
LONG TERM...RANDEL
AVIATION...LEINS
MARINE...KIELTYKA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
125 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

OHZ003-006>014-018>023-089-211730-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-
ASHTABULA INLAND-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-
125 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT
FOR THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF NORTHERN OHIO ROUGHLY FROM A LINE FROM
NEAR FINDLAY TO MANSFIELD TO CANTON. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OHZ017-027>033-036>038-047-211730-
HANCOCK-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-
MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
125 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 621 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPETED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LEZ142>149-162>169-PAZ001>003-211730-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OHIO-
GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO-CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
VERMILION TO AVON POINT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-GENEVA-ON-
THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OHIO BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-
CONNEAUT OHIO TO RIPLEY NY BEYOND 5 NM OF SHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-
SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
125 PM EDT MON AUG 20 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE AND NORTHWEST
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.