Storm Warning 17, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 170642 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
940 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

UPDATED ZONE 120 125 AND 129

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-171500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN THE BERING SEA WILL CROSS
THE GULF TONIGHT. LATE WED MORNING A 999 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 500 NM
SOUTH OF KODIAK. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO 160 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK 
AND DEEPEN TO 988 MB WED EVENING AND THEN TO NEAR SEWARD AT 982 MB
THU AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ120-171500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
940 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT ALONG THE COAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-171500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT E 30 KT TOWARD THE ENTRANCE.
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-171500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
940 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 50 KT
TOWARD HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-171500-
PASSAGE CANAL
940 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-171500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 50 KT DECREASING TO 35
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. FROM THE BARREN
ISLANDS E...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13
FT.  RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN 
AND SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING 
SPRAY W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-171500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.   

$$

PKZ138-171500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-171500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 
FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE 
WATERS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-171500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 171302
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST WED JAN 17 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-180300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1002 MB LOW NEAR SELDOVIA DISSIPATES WED AFTERNOON. A 999 MB LOW
500 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK INTENSIFIES TO 984 MB THU MORNING NEAR
MIDDLETON ISLAND AND THEN MOVES INLAND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE GULF THU NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-180300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST WED JAN 17 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 45 KT SUBSIDING TO 30 KT THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN AND FOG.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-180300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST WED JAN 17 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-180300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST WED JAN 17 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-180300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST WED JAN 17 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-180300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST WED JAN 17 2007

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-180300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST WED JAN 17 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-180300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST WED JAN 17 2007

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-180300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST WED JAN 17 2007

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2
FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-180300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST WED JAN 17 2007

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN OK AGREEMENT. GFS PREFERRED DUE TO BETTER HANDLING OF BERING
LOW SYSTEM.

UPPER LEVELS...
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WEAKENS AND RECEDES INTO THE
HIGH ARCTIC BY TUE NIGHT.
BROAD RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND CENTRAL BERING SEA SHIFTS
EASTWARD OVER THE MAINLAND BY TUE NIGHT THEN HOLDS ITS GROUND THROUGH
AT LEAST 72 HOURS.
CUT OFF H514 CENTER SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS REPOSITIONS ITSELF
OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA BY WED NIGHT THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS.
MYRIAD OF WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE CUT OFF CENTER AND OVER
THE RIDGE.

SURFACE FEATURES...
RESIDUAL 1011 MB LOW NEAR CAPE YAKATAGA WILL DISSIPATE BY TUE
AFTERNOON.
A 970 MB LOW NEAR 51N 175W WILL BECOME A 979 MB LOW 180 NM
SOUTH OF SAINT PAUL WED NIGHT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MULTIPLE LOW
CENTERS.
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT EXTENDS IN AN ARC ACROSS THE BERING SEA.
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND EASTWARD. NORTHWARD MOVEMENT IS
LIMITED BUT EASTWARD MOVEMENT IS MORE DRAMATIC. FRONT WILL REACH
BERING SEA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...PASS OVER KODIAK ISLAND BY THIS
EVENING...AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE WED EVENING.
NEW FEATURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY
WED NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE ON INTENSITY POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS
LOW. GFS PEGS IT AT 995 MB AND MOVES IT TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA THU
NIGHT. FORECASTS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION.

BROAD THICK DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SPORADIC LIGHT SNOW. EASTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
SHOULD SCOUR OUT THIS DECK BEFORE ACTUAL FRONT ARRIVES.

PLENTY OF BOTH WIND AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH STORM OUT
WEST...ESPECIALLY THE FRONT. SUSTAINED GALE FORE WINDS ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. BLIZZARD WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PRIBILOFS AND
BRISTOL BAY. STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL BE ALONG THE
WESTERN CAPES. BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG EAST WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS
SUCH AS WHITTIER AND PORTAGE. BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE FOR
KUSKOKWIM DELTA BUT WINDS SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH BLIZ
CRITERIA IN THIS ZONE AT THIS TIME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZ WARN 161 195. BLIZ WATCH 125.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 138 150 160 171 171 172 175 176 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB JAN 07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
10 AM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

AKZ101-171400-

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM TONIGHT...

IF PLANNING TO DRIVE SOUTH ALONG THE SEWARD HIGHWAY TONIGHT EXPECT TO
ENCOUNTER BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE DUE TO GUST AS HIGH AS 45 TO
55 MPH LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL LIFT SNOW AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES.
HEAVY SNOW WILL FALL FROM GIRDWOOD TO TURNAGAIN PASS WHICH WILL ALSO
REDUCE VISIBILITY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.

REMEMBER A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. TRAVEL ALONG THE SEWARD HIGHWAY TONIGHT WILL BE VERY
SLOW IF NOT OUTRIGHT DANGEROUS. PLEASE EXERCISE CAUTION.

DV/ JAN 07
$

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
10 AM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

AKZ101-171400-

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM TONIGHT...

IF PLANNING TO DRIVE SOUTH ALONG THE SEWARD HIGHWAY TONIGHT EXPECT TO
ENCOUNTER BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EAST OF BIRD POINT. WINDS ARE DUE TO
GUST AS HIGH AS 45 TO 55 MPH LATE TONIGHT IN EASTERN TURNAGAIN
ARM...WHICH WILL LIFT SNOW AND REDUCE VISIBILITIES.  HEAVY SNOW WILL
FALL IN THE SAME AREA WHICH WILL ALSO REDUCE VISIBILITY. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ALONG WESTERN
TURNAGAIN ARM THERE WILL BE DRIFTING SNOW ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.

REMEMBER A BLIZZARD WARNING MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. TRAVEL ALONG THE SEWARD HIGHWAY TONIGHT WILL BE VERY
SLOW IF NOT OUTRIGHT DANGEROUS. PLEASE EXERCISE CAUTION.

DV/ JAN 07