Small Craft Advisory 63, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 162148 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1250 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

UPDATED ZONE 130

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-170300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1011 MB LOW NEAR CAPE YAKATAGA WILL DISSIPATE BY TUE AFTERNOON.
A WEATHER FRONT IN THE NORTH PACIFIC WILL PASS OVER KODIAK ISLAND TUE
AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA BY WED AFTERNOON.
A 995 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY WED NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-170300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-170300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-170300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-170300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-170300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
1250 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY
NORTHWEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-170300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-170300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-170300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-170300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 170024
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-171500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN THE BERING SEA WILL CROSS
THE GULF TONIGHT. LATE WED MORNING A 999 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 500 NM
SOUTH OF KODIAK. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO 160 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK 
AND DEEPEN TO 988 MB WED EVENING AND THEN TO NEAR SEWARD AT 982 MB
THU AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ120-171500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-171500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT...EXCEPT E 30 KT TOWARD THE ENTRANCE.
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-171500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 35 KT
TOWARD HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT DECREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 
FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-171500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-171500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...NE WIND 50 KT DECREASING TO 35
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. FROM THE BARREN
ISLANDS E...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13
FT.  RAIN AND SNOW.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN 
AND SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING 
SPRAY W OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-171500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.   

$$

PKZ138-171500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-171500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
STRONGEST WINDS SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 
FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE 
WATERS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ141-171500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

.DISCUSSION...
12Z GFS MODELS HAS INITIALIZED THE MOISTURE FIELD WITH THE NAM AND
GFS BOTH ANALYZING THE LOW POSITIONING RATHER WELL THIS MORNING.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS SYNOPTICALLY...NCEP AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE VERY
SIMILAR. THE ONLY DIFFERENCES THROUGH FRIDAY ARE THE TIMING ON SHORT
WAVES MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH IN THE BERING SEA.

UPPER LEVELS...LOW MOVING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TODAY AND EXIT
INTO CANADA TOMORROW WITH A RIDGE RIDING OVER THE GULF. IN THE
MEANTIME...THE LARGE LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN
TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING. THIS LOW WITH A TROUGH AXIS
FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO 40N WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BIG
PROBLEM WILL THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ROUNDING THIS LOW.

SURFACE WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF ADAK. A STRONG FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN TONIGHT AND HEAD INTO THE
BERING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE BERING AS THE
MAIN PUSH OF THE FRONT WILL BE TOWARD THE MAINLAND. THE TIGHTENING OF
THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THE WIND SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE BERING TO
THE WESTERN CAPES. A LARGE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS FRONT AS WELL. THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR SAINT
PAUL AND A WATCH FOR THE WESTERN CAPES OF BRISTOL BAY. THE FRONT
REMAINS RATHER STATIONARY OVER THE BERING BUT PROGRESSES WELL INLAND.
THE FIRST FRONT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FRONT OVER THE BERING MOVING LITTLE TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH A BIT WEDNESDAY  NIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL. THE LOW
WILL MOVE LITTLE INTO SATURDAY BUT CONTINUE TO FILL. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE LOW. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A BIG
QUESTION WITH THE FIRST FRONT OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. BELIEVE WE
WILL CHANGE TO RAIN OVER THIS AREA FROM KING SALMON SOUTH WITH THE
PUSH FROM THE SECOND FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN
SNOW NORTH OF KING SALMON.

SURFACE EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF SOUTH
OF CORDOVA TO PUSH INLAND NEAR YAKUTAT LATE TONIGHT. SNOW FROM THE
SOUND EAST WILL END AS THE LOW IS PUSHED EAST. A FEW FLURRIES ARE
BEING SQUEEZED OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS MOVING DIRECTLY OVER ANCHORAGE. THIS FEATURE WILL FOLLOW
THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT. HIGHER PRESSURE QUICKLY REPLACES THIS
LOW...BUT IT IS SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG FRONT FROM THE ALEUTIAN LOW
PUSHES TO KODIAK TOMORROW MORNING. STRONG WINDS AND LOTS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. GOOD JET SUPPORT WITH THIS
FEATURE AS WELL AS IT MOVES ONTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
HIT THE UPSLOPE SIDES WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOW. THE ANCHORAGE AREA
PARTICULARLY TURNAGAIN ARM MAY EXPERIENCE SOME SOUTH WINDS WITH THE
FRONT. AS THE FRONT PASSES...THERE SHOULD BE A SHOT OF PRECIPITATION
TO HIT THE ANCHORAGE AREA. THE SAME SHOULD GO FOR THE VALDEZ AREA DUE
TO THE FLOW. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SIMILAR
RESULTS. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL BE LESS. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES TO SOUTH OF SEWARD THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SPREADING OVER THE
AREA. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE GALE FORCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
INITIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS LOW LIFTS THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF. THIS NEXT LOW
TO MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND WEAKEN WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING ZONE 195
         BLIZZARD WATCH ZONE 125 161
MARINE...STORM 179. GALES 120 130 132 138 140 150 155 165 170 171 172
175 176 185. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...121 129 130 140 160 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN JAN 07