Blizzard Watch 6, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
WWAK41 PAFC 171400
WSWAER

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
500 AM AST WED JAN 17 2007

AKZ125-171500-
/X.CAN.PAFC.BZ.W.0009.000000T0000Z-070117T1400Z/
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...
MOOSE PASS
500 AM AST WED JAN 17 2007

...BLIZZARD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE
BLIZZARD WARNING. 

$$

AKZ131-171500-
/X.CAN.PAFC.BZ.A.0006.070117T1800Z-070118T0100Z/
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
500 AM AST WED JAN 17 2007

...BLIZZARD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE
BLIZZARD WATCH. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS IN OK AGREEMENT. GFS PREFERRED DUE TO BETTER HANDLING OF BERING
LOW SYSTEM.

UPPER LEVELS...
LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER MAINLAND ALASKA WEAKENS AND RECEDES INTO THE
HIGH ARCTIC BY TUE NIGHT.
BROAD RIDGE OVER EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND CENTRAL BERING SEA SHIFTS
EASTWARD OVER THE MAINLAND BY TUE NIGHT THEN HOLDS ITS GROUND THROUGH
AT LEAST 72 HOURS.
CUT OFF H514 CENTER SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS REPOSITIONS ITSELF
OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA BY WED NIGHT THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS.
MYRIAD OF WEAK SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE CUT OFF CENTER AND OVER
THE RIDGE.

SURFACE FEATURES...
RESIDUAL 1011 MB LOW NEAR CAPE YAKATAGA WILL DISSIPATE BY TUE
AFTERNOON.
A 970 MB LOW NEAR 51N 175W WILL BECOME A 979 MB LOW 180 NM
SOUTH OF SAINT PAUL WED NIGHT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MULTIPLE LOW
CENTERS.
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT EXTENDS IN AN ARC ACROSS THE BERING SEA.
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH AND EASTWARD. NORTHWARD MOVEMENT IS
LIMITED BUT EASTWARD MOVEMENT IS MORE DRAMATIC. FRONT WILL REACH
BERING SEA COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON...PASS OVER KODIAK ISLAND BY THIS
EVENING...AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE WED EVENING.
NEW FEATURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY 100 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY
WED NIGHT. MODELS DISAGREE ON INTENSITY POSITION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS
LOW. GFS PEGS IT AT 995 MB AND MOVES IT TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA THU
NIGHT. FORECASTS TRENDED TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION.

BROAD THICK DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SPORADIC LIGHT SNOW. EASTERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
SHOULD SCOUR OUT THIS DECK BEFORE ACTUAL FRONT ARRIVES.

PLENTY OF BOTH WIND AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH STORM OUT
WEST...ESPECIALLY THE FRONT. SUSTAINED GALE FORE WINDS ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. BLIZZARD WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR PRIBILOFS AND
BRISTOL BAY. STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL BE ALONG THE
WESTERN CAPES. BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR STRONG EAST WINDS THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS
SUCH AS WHITTIER AND PORTAGE. BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE FOR
KUSKOKWIM DELTA BUT WINDS SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH BLIZ
CRITERIA IN THIS ZONE AT THIS TIME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZ WARN 161 195. BLIZ WATCH 125.
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 138 150 160 171 171 172 175 176 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

ASB JAN 07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
442 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

AKZ101-171400-

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED IN EASTERN TURNAGAIN
   ARM TONIGHT...

A COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE
WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS IN EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM...PORTAGE VALLEY...AND
TURNAGAIN PASS TONIGHT. IN THOSE AREAS...WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 55
MPH OVERNIGHT. DRIVING ON THE SEWARD HIGHWAY MAY BE DANGEROUS AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR PORTAGE VALLEY. CLOSER TO ANCHORAGE
ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM...EXPECT DRIFTING SNOW WITH GUSTY WINDS. WINDS
AND SNOW WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ONLY A FEW
SNOW FLAKES WILL BE SEEN HERE IN TOWN.

DV/ JAN 07