Gale Warning 100, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 170001
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-171500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 971 MB LOW NEAR ATKA WILL MOVE TO 130 NM NORTHEAST OF ATKA AT 976
MB BY WED AFTERNOON AND THEN TO 50 NM NORTHEAST OF SAINT PAUL AT 978
MB THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-171500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-171500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-171500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO S WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING.
SEAS 8 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ165-171500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-171500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SNOW.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT.
.SAT AND SUN...NW WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ170-171500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.

.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-171500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-171500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 30 KT WEST OF SEGUAM ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT
ELSEWHERE. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ175-171500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 20 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ176-171500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-171500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.
SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.FRI AND SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS.  

$$

PKZ179-171500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST TUE JAN 16 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE EVENING...BECOMING
SE WIND 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST MON JAN 15 2007

.DISCUSSION...
12Z GFS MODELS HAS INITIALIZED THE MOISTURE FIELD WITH THE NAM AND
GFS BOTH ANALYZING THE LOW POSITIONING RATHER WELL THIS MORNING.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS SYNOPTICALLY...NCEP AND EUROPEAN MODELS ARE VERY
SIMILAR. THE ONLY DIFFERENCES THROUGH FRIDAY ARE THE TIMING ON SHORT
WAVES MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH IN THE BERING SEA.

UPPER LEVELS...LOW MOVING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TODAY AND EXIT
INTO CANADA TOMORROW WITH A RIDGE RIDING OVER THE GULF. IN THE
MEANTIME...THE LARGE LOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN
TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING. THIS LOW WITH A TROUGH AXIS
FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO 40N WILL REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BIG
PROBLEM WILL THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF EACH SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ROUNDING THIS LOW.

SURFACE WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED SOUTH OF ADAK. A STRONG FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW.
THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN TONIGHT AND HEAD INTO THE
BERING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN OVER THE BERING AS THE
MAIN PUSH OF THE FRONT WILL BE TOWARD THE MAINLAND. THE TIGHTENING OF
THE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE THE WIND SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE BERING TO
THE WESTERN CAPES. A LARGE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS FRONT AS WELL. THEREFORE...WILL ISSUE BLIZZARD WARNING FOR SAINT
PAUL AND A WATCH FOR THE WESTERN CAPES OF BRISTOL BAY. THE FRONT
REMAINS RATHER STATIONARY OVER THE BERING BUT PROGRESSES WELL INLAND.
THE FIRST FRONT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FRONT OVER THE BERING MOVING LITTLE TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH A BIT WEDNESDAY  NIGHT AS THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL. THE LOW
WILL MOVE LITTLE INTO SATURDAY BUT CONTINUE TO FILL. PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE LOW. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A BIG
QUESTION WITH THE FIRST FRONT OVER THE BRISTOL BAY AREA. BELIEVE WE
WILL CHANGE TO RAIN OVER THIS AREA FROM KING SALMON SOUTH WITH THE
PUSH FROM THE SECOND FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...IT WILL REMAIN
SNOW NORTH OF KING SALMON.

SURFACE EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF SOUTH
OF CORDOVA TO PUSH INLAND NEAR YAKUTAT LATE TONIGHT. SNOW FROM THE
SOUND EAST WILL END AS THE LOW IS PUSHED EAST. A FEW FLURRIES ARE
BEING SQUEEZED OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS MOVING DIRECTLY OVER ANCHORAGE. THIS FEATURE WILL FOLLOW
THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT. HIGHER PRESSURE QUICKLY REPLACES THIS
LOW...BUT IT IS SHORT LIVED AS A STRONG FRONT FROM THE ALEUTIAN LOW
PUSHES TO KODIAK TOMORROW MORNING. STRONG WINDS AND LOTS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. GOOD JET SUPPORT WITH THIS
FEATURE AS WELL AS IT MOVES ONTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND NORTH OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
HIT THE UPSLOPE SIDES WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SNOW. THE ANCHORAGE AREA
PARTICULARLY TURNAGAIN ARM MAY EXPERIENCE SOME SOUTH WINDS WITH THE
FRONT. AS THE FRONT PASSES...THERE SHOULD BE A SHOT OF PRECIPITATION
TO HIT THE ANCHORAGE AREA. THE SAME SHOULD GO FOR THE VALDEZ AREA DUE
TO THE FLOW. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SIMILAR
RESULTS. HOWEVER...THE WINDS WILL BE LESS. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER
MOVES TO SOUTH OF SEWARD THURSDAY...WITH SNOW SPREADING OVER THE
AREA. IN ADDITION...WINDS WILL BE GALE FORCE WITH THIS SYSTEM
INITIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS LOW LIFTS THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF. THIS NEXT LOW
TO MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND WEAKEN WITH LITTLE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION WILL BE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING ZONE 195
         BLIZZARD WATCH ZONE 125 161
MARINE...STORM 179. GALES 120 130 132 138 140 150 155 165 170 171 172
175 176 185. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...121 129 130 140 160 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN JAN 07