Storm Warning 125, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 121227
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST MON NOV 12 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-130300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 977 MB LOW 100 NM NORTHWEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WILL MOVE TO 
70 NM WEST OF MEKORYUK AT 982 MB LATE MON NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE BY 
TUE AFTERNOON. A 986 MB LOW 280 NM WEST OF SAINT GEORGE WILL MOVE TO
NEAR PORT HEIDEN AT 980 MB BY TUE MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO 
NEAR KING SALMON BY TUE AFTERNOON AND THEN TO 70 NM SOUTHEAST OF
BETHEL AT 985 MB BY LATE TUE NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ150-130300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM AST MON NOV 12 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-130300-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM AST MON NOV 12 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.   

$$

PKZ160-130300-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM AST MON NOV 12 2007

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.TUE...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-130300-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM AST MON NOV 12 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-130300-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM AST MON NOV 12 2007

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW
AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-130300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM AST MON NOV 12 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT
BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 55 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-130300-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM AST MON NOV 12 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-130300-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM AST MON NOV 12 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-130300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM AST MON NOV 12 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-130300-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM AST MON NOV 12 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-130300-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM AST MON NOV 12 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY.  
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-130300-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM AST MON NOV 12 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST SUN NOV 11 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GFS HAS BEEN RESONABLY CONSISTENT OUT TO AT LEAST 84 HOURS AND WAS
GENERALLY FOLLOWED FOR THE FORECAST. THE MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 120 HOURS...AND THIS
GIVES A DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM IS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A
WEAKENING LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST IS BARELY MOVING. A
BROAD WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE BERING SEA WITH A DEEP POLAR LOW OVER
NORTHEAST SIBERIA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF LOW WILL LINGER TODAY
FOR CONSIDERABLE AREAS OF CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE SIBERIAN
LOW DROPS INTO THE BERING SEA ON MONDAY THE LOW WILL KICK OUT TO
THE EAST FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL...BUT
INCREASING RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST ON TUESDAY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN
DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE FOR A MORE WARM...SHOWERY...
AND CLOUDY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE BERING SEA LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST SETTING UP WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR GULF STORM LATER IN THE WEEK. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PULL COLD AIR OFF OF SIBERIA IN THE POLAR JET. THIS WILL CONSOLIDATE
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET...WHICH CURRENTLY HAS A STRONG TROPICAL
CONNECTION. INDEED...WHAT IS AT LEAST A TROPICAL STORM (POSSIBLY A
TYPHOON...I HAVE NOT HAD TIME TO EXPLORE THIS MORE FULLY) WILL GO
EXTRA-TROPICAL AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND UNDERGO
EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS AS IT INHALES THE SIBERIAN AIR. MANY ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW A SURFACE LOW IN THE 940S BY 18Z THURSDAY...AND THE 00Z
RUN OF THE GFS DROPS THE SURFACE LOW TO 937 MB. WITH THIS SORT OF
STRENGTH AND DEVELOPMENT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WOULD BE LIKELY.
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION ARE STILL IN QUESTION OF COURSE...BUT A
MAJOR EVENT IS SHAPING UP FOR LATER IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE IN THE
GULF.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 155 170 172 175 176 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG NOV 07