Gale Warning 798, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 121225
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AST MON NOV 12 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-130300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 977 MB LOW AT 62N 174W WILL MOVE TO 60N 168W AT 982 MB LATE MON
NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE BY TUE AFTERNOON. A 986 MB LOW AT 56N 177W WILL
MOVE TO 57N 160W AT 980 MB BY TUE MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO 59N 
157W BY TUE AFTERNOON AND THEN TO 60N 159W AT 985 MB BY LATE TUE
NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ411-130300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AST MON NOV 12 2007

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-130300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AST MON NOV 12 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.  
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-130300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AST MON NOV 12 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-130300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AST MON NOV 12 2007

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST SUN NOV 11 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GFS HAS BEEN RESONABLY CONSISTENT OUT TO AT LEAST 84 HOURS AND WAS
GENERALLY FOLLOWED FOR THE FORECAST. THE MAJOR GLOBAL MODELS AND GFS
ENSEMBLES ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 120 HOURS...AND THIS
GIVES A DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM IS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. A
WEAKENING LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST IS BARELY MOVING. A
BROAD WEAK RIDGE IS OVER THE BERING SEA WITH A DEEP POLAR LOW OVER
NORTHEAST SIBERIA.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF LOW WILL LINGER TODAY
FOR CONSIDERABLE AREAS OF CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS. AS THE SIBERIAN
LOW DROPS INTO THE BERING SEA ON MONDAY THE LOW WILL KICK OUT TO
THE EAST FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL...BUT
INCREASING RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE BERING SEA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES EAST ON TUESDAY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ONCE AGAIN
DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE FOR A MORE WARM...SHOWERY...
AND CLOUDY WEATHER.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
THE BERING SEA LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST SETTING UP WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR GULF STORM LATER IN THE WEEK. THE UPPER LOW WILL
PULL COLD AIR OFF OF SIBERIA IN THE POLAR JET. THIS WILL CONSOLIDATE
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET...WHICH CURRENTLY HAS A STRONG TROPICAL
CONNECTION. INDEED...WHAT IS AT LEAST A TROPICAL STORM (POSSIBLY A
TYPHOON...I HAVE NOT HAD TIME TO EXPLORE THIS MORE FULLY) WILL GO
EXTRA-TROPICAL AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA AND UNDERGO
EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS AS IT INHALES THE SIBERIAN AIR. MANY ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW A SURFACE LOW IN THE 940S BY 18Z THURSDAY...AND THE 00Z
RUN OF THE GFS DROPS THE SURFACE LOW TO 937 MB. WITH THIS SORT OF
STRENGTH AND DEVELOPMENT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WOULD BE LIKELY.
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION ARE STILL IN QUESTION OF COURSE...BUT A
MAJOR EVENT IS SHAPING UP FOR LATER IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE IN THE
GULF.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 155 170 172 175 176 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG NOV 07