Gale Warning 797, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 120102
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AST SUN NOV 11 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-121500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 977 MB LOW 62N 176W WILL MOVE TO 62N 173W AS A 976 MB LOW MON
AFTERNOON AND DRIFT TO 61N 172W AS A 987 MB LOW TUE NIGHT. A 984 MB
LOW WILL FORM NEAR 56N 174W MON MORNING AND TO 57N 165W MON NIGHT AS
A 982 MB LOW AND TO 59N 154W AS A 986 MB LOW TUE AFTERNOON. 

$$

PKZ411-121500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AST SUN NOV 11 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 

$$

PKZ412-121500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AST SUN NOV 11 2007

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-121500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AST SUN NOV 11 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-121500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AST SUN NOV 11 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO SW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 121225
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AST MON NOV 12 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-130300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 977 MB LOW AT 62N 174W WILL MOVE TO 60N 168W AT 982 MB LATE MON
NIGHT THEN DISSIPATE BY TUE AFTERNOON. A 986 MB LOW AT 56N 177W WILL
MOVE TO 57N 160W AT 980 MB BY TUE MORNING. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO 59N 
157W BY TUE AFTERNOON AND THEN TO 60N 159W AT 985 MB BY LATE TUE
NIGHT. 
$$

PKZ411-130300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AST MON NOV 12 2007

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-130300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AST MON NOV 12 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.  
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-130300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AST MON NOV 12 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-130300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AST MON NOV 12 2007

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 130059
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AST MON NOV 12 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-131500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 978 MB LOW NEAR 61N 173W WILL MOVE TO 60N 170W AND DISSIPATE
TUESDAY MORNING. A 982 MB LOW NEAR 56N 169W WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR 58N
158W TUESDAY MORNING AT 978 MB. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
WESTERN BERING SEA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
$$

PKZ411-131500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AST MON NOV 12 2007

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ412-131500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AST MON NOV 12 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-131500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 PM AST MON NOV 12 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-131500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 PM AST MON NOV 12 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO NW 35 KT THIS EVENING.
SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 130156 AAA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
455 PM AST MON NOV 12 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-131500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 978 MB LOW NEAR 61N 173W WILL MOVE TO 60N 170W AND DISSIPATE
TUESDAY MORNING. A 982 MB LOW NEAR 56N 169W WILL MOVE INLAND NEAR 58N
158W TUESDAY MORNING AT 978 MB. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
WESTERN BERING SEA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
$$

PKZ411-131500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 PM AST MON NOV 12 2007

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 

$$

PKZ412-131500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 PM AST MON NOV 12 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-131500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
450 PM AST MON NOV 12 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-131500-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
455 PM AST MON NOV 12 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SOUTH OF 56N...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO NW 45 KT THIS
EVENING.  NORTH OF 56N...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT.
SEAS 13 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK62 PAFC 131214
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AST TUE NOV 13 2007

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-140300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 981 MB LOW AT 58N 161W WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 987 MB. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY THU MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY 
BUILD OVER THE BERING SEA FROM THE WEST THROUGH THU MORNING. 
$$

PKZ411-140300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE
400 AM AST TUE NOV 13 2007

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ412-140300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N
400 AM AST TUE NOV 13 2007

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ413-140300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N
400 AM AST TUE NOV 13 2007

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ414-140300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W
400 AM AST TUE NOV 13 2007

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SHOWERS.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SAT NOV 10 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE ACTUALLY FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES
AND SEEM TO HAVE CAUGHT ON TO THE FUNDAMENTAL SHIFT IN THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN THAT HAS BEGUN. HEMISPHERE IS TRANSITIONING FROM AN UNSTABLE
3 WAVE TO A MORE STABLE, SYMETRICAL 4 WAVE WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH
SETTING UP VICINITY 150W. THIS PATTERN IS VERY CONSISTENT WITH A
MODERATE LA NINA.

GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER DIVERGENCE CONTINUES AT THE OUTSET WITH THE 12Z
RUN IN THE DETAILS OF THE LOW FORMING 47N/162W. INTERESTING IS THAT
THE GFS IS NOW KEEPING THE STORM TRACK FURTHER SOUTH IN LINE WITH
WHAT THE ECMF HAS BEEN DOING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
CONVERGENCE OF THE MODELS GIVES ME INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS
WITH THE NAM TOO SLOW AND TOO FAR SOUTH AT HOUR 30.

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
MAIN SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND WITH WEAKER
SECONDARY LOW FILLING AND MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA DURING
THE DAY. SYSTEM VERY SLOW TO MOVE OUT WITH DEFORMATION ZONE
QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL ACROSS THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

SOUTHERLY BRANCH OF THE POLAR JETSTREAM WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RIDGE ACROSS NORTHWEST CANADA STRENGTHENING AND
UPSTREAM BERING RIDGE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT ABOUT HOUR 24. THIS IS
ALL RELATED TO THE SHIFT IN THE LONG WAVE PATTERN.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT.
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE WEST SUSITNA VALLEY TOWARDS THE
ALASKA RANGE WHERE HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.

LOW CLOUDS WITH FOG AND FLURRIES EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWEST UNDER AN
ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAK RIDGE. UNSTABLE FLOW WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL COVER THE BERING AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH THE USUAL GALE
FORCE WINDS AND SHOWERS AS LOW DROPS OUT OF SIBERIA.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
RIDGE FORMING IN WEST BERING WILL ENHANCE COLD NORTHWEST FLOW AND
KEEP STORM TRACK TO THE SOUTH. LOW MOVING OUT OF SIBERIA WILL DROP
INTO BRISTOL BAY EARLY NEXT WEEK BRING STORMY WEATHER TO WESTERN
ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY DROP INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA BY MID WEEK LEAVING MOST OF MAINLAND ALASKA IN A
DRY AND COLD PATTERN TYPICAL OF A LA NINA. THE CENTER OF ACTION WILL
REMAIN THE EASTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS UNDER THE COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 170 172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

CAS NOV 07