Storm Warning 106, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 301819 AAB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1015 AM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

UPDATE TO ZONE 125

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-310200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 961 MB LOW NEAR KODIAK CITY EARLY THIS MORNING MOVES UP COOK INLET
TODAY AND INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY THIS EVENING...WEAKENING TO 976 
MB. A 986 MB LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TO 60 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY LATE
WED NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-310200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT BY NOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 
24 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-310200-
RESURRECTION BAY
720 AM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING S WIND 30 KT BY
NOON. SEAS 10 FT. NORTH OF CAINES HEAD...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING S WIND
25 KT BY NOON. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-310200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
1015 AM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT ENDING THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-310200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT THIS MORNING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND 
SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ130-310200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON WEST OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS. E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 50 KT EAST OF THE BARREN
ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT WEST OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT EXCEPT W 30 KT WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-310200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
720 AM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-310200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE EVENING.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
$$

PKZ140-310200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT. SEAS
7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-310200-
KACHEMAK BAY
720 AM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 302304
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-311400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 968 MB LOW OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA CONTINUES NORTH AND WEAKENS. A
983 MB LOW 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MOVES
TO NEAR SEWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT 978 MB.

$$

PKZ120-311400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-311400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT...EXCEPT SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD
SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT EXCEPT 
SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT EXCEPT 14 FT SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT EXCEPT
10 FT SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT EXCEPT 6 FT SOUTH OF CAINES
HEAD. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-311400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S WIND 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
16 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-311400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO E WIND 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 

$$

PKZ130-311400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...
EAST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...W WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT EXCEPT 10 FT WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-311400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-311400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE EVENING.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-311400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONGER
GUSTS 35 KT OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-311400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW WIND 20 KT DURING THE EVENING.
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
BY FAR THE MOST DOMINANT FEATURE THIS MORNING IS A STRONG 961 MB
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER KODIAK CITY MOVING UP COOK INLET TODAY.
THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS LOW IS MASSIVE...WITH COUNTERCLOCKWISE
FLOW AROUND THE LOW ENCOMPASSING ALL OF ALASKA...EVEN EXTENDING FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA TO THE ARCTIC OCEAN TO THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.
PRECIPITATION ENCOMPASSES NEARLY ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS
WELL...WITH HEAVY RAIN ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST...RAIN AND SNOW
MIXED OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS. WINDS WITH THE LOW HAVE BEEN STORM FORCE
IN SOME MARINE AREAS. STRONGER WINDS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE HAVE
BEEN REPORTED IN CHANNELED AREAS SUCH AS TURNAGAIN ARM...AND A 110
MPH WIND GUST WAS RECORDED LAST NIGHT UP ON THE HARDING ICEFIELD.

THIS LOW WILL MOVE UP COOK INLET TODAY AND INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY
TONIGHT...GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE REGION
IS A 995 MB LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE NORTH
PACIFIC...POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALEUTIANS
TODAY. A STRONG JET STREAM WILL PUSH THIS LOW FROM WEST TO EAST AT A
FAST CLIP JUST LIKE ITS PREDECESSOR.

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
UNLIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...MODELS ARE IN HAPPY AGREEMENT TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM FORECAST...
SOUTHCENTRAL FORECAST...
MASSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER KODIAK EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
UP COOK INLET TODAY AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES UP THE SUSITNA VALLEY
TONIGHT. WARM AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS AROUND 1500
TO 2000 FEET DURING THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT AREAS FROM KENAI NORTH TO
TALKEETNA TO REMAIN GENERALLY DRY TODAY WITH DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST
FLOW. AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE LOW
MOVES INLAND...PRECIPITATION WILL COMMENCE FOR THE THESE AREAS.
LIMITED COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SO ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
PROBABLY BE CONFINED TO THE ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE AND OTHER SLIGHTLY
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR WESTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND. PORTAGE IS ALREADY UP TO AROUND THREE AND A HALF
INCHES OF RAIN...AND WILL LIKELY REACH FIVE BEFORE THE END OF THE
DAY. RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME HEAVIER FOR CORDOVA AND VALDEZ AS THE
FLOW SWITCHES FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AROUND MIDDAY. PRECIPITATION
WILL TAPER OFF SOME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE HOT ON ITS HEELS. ALTHOUGH WINDS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE PRESENT SYSTEM...IT BEARS
CLOSE WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW FOR THE ANCHORAGE
AREA...AS THE MODELS BRING THE LOW INTO WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND...WHICH IS A MUCH MORE FAVORABLE POSITION THAN WITH THE
CURRENT LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS MOVING UP COOK INLET.

SOUTHWEST MAINLAND FORECAST...
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AS
COLDER AIR WORKS IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. SNOW TO CONTINUE OFF
AND ON THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BIT OF A
DECREASING TREND THROUGH THIS TIME. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS CLOSELY. THINGS ARE JUST GETTING GOING AND
ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN LIMITED SO FAR DUE TO MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN TODAY
AND THIS EVENING.

BERING SEA/ALEUTIAN FORECAST...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE BERING/ALEUTIANS IN COMPARISON
TO THE REST OF THE REGION...NOT TO SAY THAT THINGS WILL BE QUIET.
THE REGION WILL BE UNDER COOL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH OCCASION RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. ESPECIALLY GUSTY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS AND AKPEN TODAY WILL SLACKEN SOME TONIGHT. A LOW
WILL PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MOST OF THE WEATHER AND WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY JUST SOUTH
OF THE CHAIN...AFFECTING THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE COASTAL MARINE
ZONES.

.LONG TERM FORECAST...
PROGRESSIVE...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WEATHER OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN TO
CENTRAL BERING...BUT THIS BREAK PROBABLY WILL NOT LAST LONG.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 AND 125. HIGH SURF ADVISORY 161 AND
         181.
MARINE...STORM WARNING ZONES 120 130 132 150 351 352 413 414.
         GALE WARNING ZONES 121 125 129 136 138 140 155 160 165 170
         171 179 180.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

FOISY OCT 07