Storm Warning 105, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 301243 CCB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

CORRECTED ZONE 130 HEADLINE.

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-310200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 961 MB LOW NEAR KODIAK CITY EARLY THIS MORNING MOVES UP COOK INLET
TODAY AND INTO THE SUSITNA VALLEY THIS EVENING...WEAKENING TO 976 
MB. A 986 MB LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TO 60 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY LATE
WED NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-310200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 50 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT BY NOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 
24 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-310200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING S WIND 30 KT BY
NOON. NORTH OF CAINES HEAD...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S WIND 25
KT BY NOON. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-310200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-310200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT THIS MORNING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND 
SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 

$$

PKZ130-310200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON WEST OF THE
BARREN ISLANDS. E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 50 KT EAST OF THE BARREN
ISLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT WEST OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT EXCEPT W 30 KT WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS.
SEAS 19 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-310200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-310200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE EVENING.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-310200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT. SEAS
7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-310200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT MON OCT 29 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS AND EC MODEL INITIALIZATIONS AND FORECAST
TRENDS THROUGH 84 HOURS. THE GFS WITH SOME MODIFICATION WILL BE USED
FOR AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGES.

.ANALYSIS/FORECAST...

LOW CENTER OVER WESTERN BRISTOL BAY MOVES INLAND ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST LATE TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
DEEPENS TO 966 MB JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING. THIS LOW
THEN MOVES INTO SOUTHERN COOK INLET BY MID TUE MORNING. LOW CENTER
THEN MOVES INLAND OVER THE NORTH KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TUE EVENING. A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER WESTERN ALASKA THROUGH THU. A
DEVELOPING WITH TROPICAL ORIGINS DEEPENS AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS AND ENDS UP NEAR KODIAK ISLAND IN THE 970S THU MORNING.
MODELS HAVE DIFFERED ON EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. MORE CHANGES
IN TRACK AND INTENSITY LIKELY UNTIL THINGS SETTLE DOWN.

.EAST...PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WILL INCREASE SOME
THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAKENING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH BRISTOL BAY CENTER
MOVES EAST/NORTH. MAIN PRESSURE/MOISTURE SURGE COMES AS SECONDARY
CENTER MOVES INTO SOUTHERN COOK INLET TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. EXPECT
HIGH WIND WARNINGS CONDITIONS LIKELY TONIGHT THROUGH TUE ZONES 101
AND 125 WITH NUMEROUS STRONG WIND HEADLINES IN SOUTHCENTRAL PUBLIC
ZONES AND GALES/STORMS IN COASTAL MARINE AREAS. EXPECT WARNING LEVEL
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER SOUTHCENTRAL BY TUE EVENING AS LOW CENTER
MOVES NORTH OF THE AK RANGE. WARM ADVECTION WITH CENTER LIKELY TO
BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHCENTRAL...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ZONE 131 THOMPSON PASS MAY SEE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT WITH ONSET OF SE FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS AND MOISTURE SURGE
ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING FRONT. EXPECT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SHOULD
DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON AS SNOW MIXES WITH RAIN.

.WEST...LOW OVER WESTERN BRISTOL BAY WILL DRIFT INLAND TONIGHT. WARM
AIR SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION MAINLY RAIN OVER BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT.
WARM AIR OVERRUNNING COLD AIR MAY PRODUCE SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TONIGHT AND TUE...MAY SEE
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE DELTA THIS EVENING UNTIL COLD
AIR INTRUSION. STRONG NW WINDS SET UP OVER THE EAST ALEUTIANS AND THE
AK PEN TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUE EVENING. COLD ADVECTION INTO
SW AK AND TROUGH HOLD OVER THE MAINLAND WILL PRODUCE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WED.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNINGS ZONES 101 AND 125. BLIZZARD WARNING ZONE
131.
MARINE...STORM 120, 130, 132
         GALE 121, 125, 129, 138, 140
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC OCT 07