Storm Warning 104, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 302355
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-311400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 995 MB LOW 380 NM SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF
SAND POINT AT 983 MB WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LOW THEN MOVES TO NEAR
SEWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT 978 MB. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-311400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT DECREASING TO 22 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-311400-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED NIGHT AND THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-311400-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 55 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-311400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-311400-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-311400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-311400-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-311400-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-311400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-311400-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-311400-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED AND WED NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-311400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT AND THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT MON OCT 29 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...GFS AND EC MODEL INITIALIZATIONS AND FORECAST
TRENDS THROUGH 84 HOURS. THE GFS WITH SOME MODIFICATION WILL BE USED
FOR AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGES.

.ANALYSIS/FORECAST...

LOW CENTER OVER WESTERN BRISTOL BAY MOVES INLAND ALONG THE NORTHERN
COAST LATE TONIGHT. A DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS
DEEPENS TO 966 MB JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND THIS EVENING. THIS LOW
THEN MOVES INTO SOUTHERN COOK INLET BY MID TUE MORNING. LOW CENTER
THEN MOVES INLAND OVER THE NORTH KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TUE EVENING. A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH CONTINUES OVER WESTERN ALASKA THROUGH THU. A
DEVELOPING WITH TROPICAL ORIGINS DEEPENS AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS AND ENDS UP NEAR KODIAK ISLAND IN THE 970S THU MORNING.
MODELS HAVE DIFFERED ON EARLIER RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM. MORE CHANGES
IN TRACK AND INTENSITY LIKELY UNTIL THINGS SETTLE DOWN.

.EAST...PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WILL INCREASE SOME
THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAKENING FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH BRISTOL BAY CENTER
MOVES EAST/NORTH. MAIN PRESSURE/MOISTURE SURGE COMES AS SECONDARY
CENTER MOVES INTO SOUTHERN COOK INLET TONIGHT/TUE MORNING. EXPECT
HIGH WIND WARNINGS CONDITIONS LIKELY TONIGHT THROUGH TUE ZONES 101
AND 125 WITH NUMEROUS STRONG WIND HEADLINES IN SOUTHCENTRAL PUBLIC
ZONES AND GALES/STORMS IN COASTAL MARINE AREAS. EXPECT WARNING LEVEL
WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER SOUTHCENTRAL BY TUE EVENING AS LOW CENTER
MOVES NORTH OF THE AK RANGE. WARM ADVECTION WITH CENTER LIKELY TO
BRING RAIN AND SNOW TO SOUTHCENTRAL...WITH SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
ZONE 131 THOMPSON PASS MAY SEE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT WITH ONSET OF SE FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS AND MOISTURE SURGE
ASSOCIATED WITH ADVANCING FRONT. EXPECT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SHOULD
DIMINISH TUE AFTERNOON AS SNOW MIXES WITH RAIN.

.WEST...LOW OVER WESTERN BRISTOL BAY WILL DRIFT INLAND TONIGHT. WARM
AIR SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION MAINLY RAIN OVER BRISTOL BAY TONIGHT.
WARM AIR OVERRUNNING COLD AIR MAY PRODUCE SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TONIGHT AND TUE...MAY SEE
BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE DELTA THIS EVENING UNTIL COLD
AIR INTRUSION. STRONG NW WINDS SET UP OVER THE EAST ALEUTIANS AND THE
AK PEN TONIGHT AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUE EVENING. COLD ADVECTION INTO
SW AK AND TROUGH HOLD OVER THE MAINLAND WILL PRODUCE UNSETTLED
WEATHER WITH SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH WED.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNINGS ZONES 101 AND 125. BLIZZARD WARNING ZONE
131.
MARINE...STORM 120, 130, 132
         GALE 121, 125, 129, 138, 140
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RMC OCT 07