Gale Warning 785, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 310631 AAB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1030 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

UPDATED ZONE 125.

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-311400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 968 MB LOW OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA CONTINUES NORTH AND WEAKENS. A
983 MB LOW 120 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MOVES
TO NEAR SEWARD THURSDAY AFTERNOON AT 978 MB.

$$

PKZ120-311400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-311400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT...EXCEPT SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD
SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT EXCEPT 
SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT EXCEPT 14 FT SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT EXCEPT
10 FT SOUTH OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT EXCEPT 6 FT SOUTH OF CAINES
HEAD. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-311400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
1030 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-311400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO E WIND 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT. 

$$

PKZ130-311400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...
EAST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...W WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT EXCEPT 10 FT WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. 
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-311400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-311400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. GUSTS TO 55 KT IN THE EVENING.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-311400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONGER
GUSTS 35 KT OUT OF TURNAGAIN ARM. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-311400-
KACHEMAK BAY
855 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 311154
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT WED OCT 31 2007

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-010200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 980 MB LOW OVER NORTHERN COOK INLET THIS MORNING CONTINUES NORTH
AND WEAKENS TODAY. A 979 MB LOW 110 NM SOUTH OF SAND POINT THIS
AFTERNOON MOVES TO KODIAK CITY AT 976 MB THU MORNING...THEN TO 
SEWARD THU NIGHT AT 982 MB.
$$

PKZ120-010200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT WED OCT 31 2007

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-010200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT WED OCT 31 2007

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-010200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT WED OCT 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-010200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT WED OCT 31 2007

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 20 KT BY MID MORNING. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW WITH RAIN. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN 
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-010200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT WED OCT 31 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 16
FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-010200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT WED OCT 31 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 24
FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

PKZ138-010200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT WED OCT 31 2007

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.THU...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-010200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT WED OCT 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
$$

PKZ141-010200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT WED OCT 31 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM ADT TUE OCT 30 2007

.MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS INITIALIZATIONS REASONABLE AS WELL AS
GENERAL FORCAST TRACKS THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...INTENSITY AND
PRESSURE OF CENTER MOVING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS/AK PEN TO THE WEST
GULF OF ALASKA WED NIGHT WILL MOST LIKELY UNDERGO SOME ADJUSTMENTS.
GFS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND WILL GO THAT WAY WITH SOME SHORT
TERM ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

.ANALYSIS....

.EAST...THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE EAST IS THE 960S LOW OVER THE BARREN
ISLANDS. SAT/OBS DATA INDICATES THAT THE CENTER IS SLOWLY MOVING N.
12Z MODELS ARE TAKING CENTER MORE UP COOK INLET...BUT FEEL N TRACK
MAY BE A LITTLE SLOWER AND POSSIBLY LITTLE FURTHER EAST. THIS HAS
CAUSED SOME CONCERN FOR WIND WARNINGS FOR ZONES 101 AND 125. PRESSURE
SURGE ON BACKSIDE OF FRONT HAS INCREASED WINDS TO JUST BELOW WARNING
LEVELS IN 125...HOWEVER WINDS HAVE NOT QUITE COME UP OVER THE WESTERN
END OF TURNAGAIN ARM AFTER INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL SURGE. EXPECT THAT AS
THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES AND LOW MOVES SLOWLY N THAT WINDS MAY
INCREASE AGAIN TO NEAR WARNING LEVELS FOR ZONE 101 AND DIMINISH AGAIN
TONIGHT AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY. EXPECT
CENTER MAY MOVE A LITTLE SLOWER THEN CURRENT FORECAST...SO WOULD HOLD
UP THE WINDS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL/GULF THIS EVENING. WIND SHOULD
BE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH OVER THE COPPER RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WILL REMAIN BRISK THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT RAIN BECOMING MIXED
WITH SNOW OVER MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION
ON THE BACK SIDE. MAY SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF 101 125 AND 141. NEXT LOW MOVING TO THE WESTERN GULF WED NIGHT/THU
WILL BRING ANOTHER BATCH OF WARM AIR AND WINDS.

.WEST...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW AK HOLDS.  SURFACE LOW FROM OVER IN
WESTERN INTERIOR AND DRIFTS SOUTHWEST TO OVER THE DELTA WED AFTERNOON
AND EVENTUALLY TO OVER BRISTOL BAY THU. SNOW WILL CONTINUE/SPREAD
OVER MUCH OF THE SW MAINLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS
EXPECTED ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE WITH SW UPSLOPE FLOW. SNOW SHOULD
DIMINISH OVER BRISTOL BAY WED. MOST PREDOMINATE AREAS FOR SNOW LIKELY
OVER THE DELTA AS SURFACE LOW DROPS OVER THE AREA. STRONG NW WINDS
OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA/AK PEN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS
THE LOW OVER SOUTHCENTRAL MOVES NORTH AND WEAKENS. EXPECT NW WINDS TO
INCREASE AGAIN OVER THE ALEUTIANS WED AFTERNOON AND SPREAD TO THE
EASTERN BERING SEA/AK PEN WED NIGHT/THU AS LOW UNDERCUTS THE AK PEN.

HIGH SURF CONDITIONS WITH SPRING TIDES AND WIND/WAVE CONDITIONS WILL
BRIEFLY PRODUCE A 2-4 FT SURGE ABOVE MAT THIS EVENING MUCH OF SW AK.
EXPECT EVENT TO BE OVER AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 101 AND 125 DIMINISHING. HIGH SURF
ADVISORY THIS EVENING 155 AND 161.
MARINE...SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENT WILL BE NECESSARY. SEE CURRENT LIST.

RMC OCT 07