Small Craft Advisory 110, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
415 AM AST MON JAN 29 2007

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING. THE SAME PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE PINEAPPLE EXPRESS SENDING MORE
SYSTEMS NORTHWARD TO THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
WILL BE THAT THEY WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN THE TWO
PREVIOUS LOWS. THE BLOCKING RIDGE SET UP OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA IS
CAUSING THIS CHANGE. THIS MEANS SOUTHCENTRAL WILL AVOID MOST OF THE
PRECIP. HOWEVER IT ALSO MEANS THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
BETWEEN THE LOWS AND THE RIDGE.

IN THE WEST..FOR TODAY RAIN WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE LOW
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE BERING. THE GRADIENT
WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN AFTER THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE CAUSING
WARNING LEVEL WINDS TO 90 MPH TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AK PENN THIS
EVENING AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE WESTERN CAPES OF BRISTOL BAY. WAA
WILL CONTINUE FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS EASTWARD WITH COLDER
NORTHERLIES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. LOOK FOR THE BLUSTERY WINDS
TO TAKE BRIEF BREAKS BUT RETURN PERIODICALLY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
SYSTEMS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH.

IN THE EAST..WAA WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND TODAY. MOST OF THE PRECIP
FROM THE CURRENT FRONTAL SYSTEM ANTICIPATED TO AFFECT THE NORTH GULF
COAST TODAY WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS SNOW
IN THE NORTHERN SUSITNA AND NORTHERN COPPER RIVER VALLEY BUT WILL MIX
WITH RAIN IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY. MOST OF THE PRECIP ACROSS THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL BE DOWNSLOPED OUT WITH WARNING LEVEL WINDS ACROSS
TURNAGAIN ARM AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STRONG GUSTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
ON THE EAST SIDE OF TOWN. HOWEVER IN THE EVENING THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN FARTHER NORTH NEAR EKLUTNA WHERE THE
WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY BE BRIEF BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO RAIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNING 121.
         HIGH WIND WARNING 101 181.
         HIGH WIND WATCH 161.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 120 130 138 155 160 165.
         GALE WARNING 125 132 150 170 171 172 176 179 180 185.
         HVY FZG SPRY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

RNW JAN 07