Small Craft Advisory 109, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SUN JAN 28 2007

.DISCUSSION...
THE MODEL ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BUT I THINK THE THE GFS IS A
LITTLE TOO DEEP ON THE LOW APPROACHING THE ALEUTIANS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

UPPER AIR...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL PERSIST AND WILL BUILD
WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND AND MAINLAND ALASKA TUESDAY. THE
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN CHAIN EXTENDS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS PATTERN WILL TRACKS THE STORMS OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC NORTH AND NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS AND INTO SOUTHERN BERING SEA OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
DAYS. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC, GULF OF ALASKA AND
MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM MOIST
AIR OVER MOST OF THE STATE.

AT SURFACE...
EAST DOMAIN...A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE KENAI PENINSULA AND NORTHERN
GULF WILL MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL INTERIOR THIS EVENING. RAIN
AND SNOW OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE KENAI PENINSULA WILL
SLOWLY END FROM THE SOUTH TODAY. SNOW OVER THE SUSITNA VALLEY WILL
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS EVENING.

ANOTHER WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO GULF MONDAY MORNING AND WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY EVENING. THE RAIN-SNOW
LINE WILL MOVE FURTHER NORTH BY THE TIME THE FRONT HITS THE COAST, SO
PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN ALONG THE COAST, KENAI PENINSULA, SOUTHERN
SUSITNA VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. A COMBINATION OF
RAIN AND SNOW WILL FALL OVER THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY AND COPPER
RIVER BASIN.

A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ALONG THE GULF COAST BEHIND THE SECOND
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND WILL INTENSIFY THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUTH AND THE KENAI PENINSULA. GUSTY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND OTHER CHANNELED TERRAIN
LATE MONDAY.

WEST DOMAIN...
A SERIES OF STRONG STORMS WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
NORTH PACIFIC AND INTO THE BERING SEA. THE FIRST STORM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MONDAY EVENING THEN DISSIPATE SOUTH
OF THE PRIBILOFS MONDAY NIGHT. A SECOND STORM WILL TRACK A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TUESDAY
NIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL ACCOMPANY BOTH OF
THE STORMS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...FLOOD WARNING ZONE 121
MARINE...STORM 130 138
         GALE 120 125 132 140 150 155 160 165 172 176 180 185
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

NM JAN 07