Severe Thunderstorm Warning 354, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
256 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...
STRONG HEATING AND A MOIST ATMOSPERE HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND THE POSSIBILITY OF WET MICROBURSTS LASTING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WENT WITH AREAL WORDING FOR THIS EVENING.

APPRARENTLY ONCE AGAIN THE GFS BLOWS SOMETHING UP FOR TONIGHT. DO
NOT QUITE BELIEVE IT BUT HAVE KEPT POPS GOING FOR THE REMAINDER
TONIGHT IN CASE SOMETHING DOES HAPPEN. THE WRF DOES HINT AT SOME
SORT OF MCS ACROSS THE NORTH. IT DOES THAT AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT BUT
THE TREND IN THE DATA IS FOR IT TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE
AREA. THUS...HAVE ONLY GONE WITH LOW POPS.

A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA
BORDER MAY FOCUS ACTIVITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH NO RELIEF IN SIGHT.
ANY SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES WILL END WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. COULD BE ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AFTER THAT BUT
CHANCES ARE SLIM ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE FORECAST. ALL THE
SIGNIFANCT FLOW IN THE ATMOSPHERE RETREATS TO CANADA MAKING
ORGANIZED STORMS UNLIKELY AND MAKING ABOVE NORMAL TEMEPRATURES
LIKELY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  95  78  95 /  50  30  30  20
FSM   74  94  74  95 /  50  30  20  10
MLC   77  95  75  97 /  50  20  10  10
BVO   74  95  70  95 /  50  40  40  20
FYV   73  89  71  91 /  50  40  20  20
BYV   72  89  71  91 /  50  40  30  20
MKO   74  92  74  94 /  50  30  20  20
MIO   74  92  74  92 /  50  40  40  20
F10   76  94  76  96 /  50  20  20  20
HHW   78  96  76  97 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 18
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 17

ABBAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
117 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1253 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON. LASTING INTO EARLY EVENING.

        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
        AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON. LASTING INTO THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A BOUNDARY WAS NEAR THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
KANSAS STATE LINE. TROPICAL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
OVER ALL OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
REGION WIDE. DAMAGING WET MICROBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS
IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN ISOLATED AREAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK IN OUR
UNUSUALLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. AN UPPER RIDGE AND CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 90S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
421 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0418 PM     HAIL             5 S BRISTOW             35.76N 96.39W
07/10/2006  E0.88 INCH       CREEK              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

NMK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
431 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

OKZ065-102230-
OKFUSKEE OK-
431 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     OKFUSKEE

AT 431 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BOLEY...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. A LARGE PORTION OF
OKFUSKEE COUNTY WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH 530 PM CDT.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
513 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

OKZ054-055-059-102300-
OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-WASHINGTON OK-
513 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OSAGE...WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN PAWNEE

AT 513 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF RALSTON TO 4 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF AVANT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...PAWHUSKA...HOMINY...AVANT...
WYNONA...WOLCO...FAIRFAX...BARNSDALL...PERSHING...TALLANT...
NELAGONEY...OKESA...RAMONA...OCHELATA AND RALSTON.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
525 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0431 PM     TSTM WND GST     BEGGS                   35.74N 96.07W
07/10/2006  E60 MPH          OKMULGEE           OK   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

NMK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
530 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

OKZ061-062-102315-
MAYES OK-ROGERS OK-
530 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     ROGERS AND MAYES

AT 530 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
NORTH OF INOLA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...INOLA...TIAWAH...PRYOR...SALINA
AND ADAIR.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
535 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

OKZ067-070-102300-
MUSKOGEE OK-WAGONER OK-
535 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WAGONER

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     MUSKOGEE

AT 535 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES
NORTHWEST OF BOYNTON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CHOSKA...TULLAHASSEE...
PORTER...OKAY...REDBIRD...MUSKOGEE...WAINWRIGHT...BOYNTON...
JAMESVILLE...TAFT AND HASKELL.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.