Severe Thunderstorm Warning 347, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 102007
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
307 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

OKC105-102017-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0347.000000T0000Z-060710T2045Z/
NOWATA OK-
307 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NOWATA COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS 
STORM THROUGH 345 PM.

LAT...LON 3676 9582 3658 9583 3657 9544 3678 9543

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1119 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

.UPDATE...
850 MB  +22 AT OUN ON 12Z CHART HEADED OUR WAY.
RAISED MAXIMUM TEMP TO AROUND YESTERDAYS LEVEL.
EVEN NORTHWEST CORNER OF ARKANSAS INTO LOW 90S.
SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 70 AND TAIL OF MCV CURL
COMBINED WITH MID 90S SHOULD INSPIRE MORE TSRA
BY MID / LATE AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUS TWO DAYS.
BUMPED POP UP A TAD. TROPICAL AIRMASS FEATURES
40 K INDEX NORTHERN AREA LATE AFTERNOON. HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL ADDED TO AFTERNOON THUNDER RISK.
WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL NOTED BY SPC.  SHOULD
WET MICROBURST OCCURR..LOCAL 5.0 INCH RAIN MAY
FOLLOW.                                     GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 313 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2006)

DISCUSSION...
BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED TO OUR NORTH THIS
MORNING...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE DURING THE DAY...WHILE THINNING CLOUD COVER
BY AFTERNOON ALLOWS TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 90S MOST
LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH MINIMAL INHIBITION IN
PLACE. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH NEAREST THE MORE DEFINED SURFACE
BOUNDARIES. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH DOWNBURST WINDS THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN MOISTURE
DEPTH.

BROAD MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINING TO
OUR WEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN U.S. BY LATE WEEK WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES TRACKING ALONG
ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. WILL CONTINUE WITH VERY LOW PRECIP CHANCES
AFTER WEDNESDAY AS FORCING WEAKENS AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES REMAIN
NORTH. HEAT WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN BY LATE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...AS A PROLONGED STRETCH OF VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS
LOOKS PROBABLE ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WELL ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 21
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
117 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-111000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1253 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON. LASTING INTO EARLY EVENING.

        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...LIMITED.
        AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON. LASTING INTO THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A BOUNDARY WAS NEAR THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
KANSAS STATE LINE. TROPICAL MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S
OVER ALL OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
REGION WIDE. DAMAGING WET MICROBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS
IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN ISOLATED AREAS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO MID WEEK IN OUR
UNUSUALLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. AN UPPER RIDGE AND CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 90S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
157 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

OKZ055-056-101930-
NOWATA OK-WASHINGTON OK-
157 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 230 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WASHINGTON AND WESTERN NOWATA

AT 157 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 21 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DELAWARE TO 51 MILES SOUTH
OF DELAWARE...STATIONARY. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THESE STORMS INCLUDE...DELAWARE.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
217 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

OKZ067-101945-
WAGONER OK-
217 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 245 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WAGONER

AT 217 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES
NORTH OF REDBIRD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...REDBIRD AND COWETA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
236 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

OKZ056-102015-
NOWATA OK-
236 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 315 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHWEST NOWATA

AT 236 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF DELAWARE TO 13 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF DELAWARE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...DELAWARE AND LENAPAH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.