Severe Thunderstorm Warning 346, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1119 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2006

.UPDATE...
850 MB  +22 AT OUN ON 12Z CHART HEADED OUR WAY.
RAISED MAXIMUM TEMP TO AROUND YESTERDAYS LEVEL.
EVEN NORTHWEST CORNER OF ARKANSAS INTO LOW 90S.
SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA 70 AND TAIL OF MCV CURL
COMBINED WITH MID 90S SHOULD INSPIRE MORE TSRA
BY MID / LATE AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUS TWO DAYS.
BUMPED POP UP A TAD. TROPICAL AIRMASS FEATURES
40 K INDEX NORTHERN AREA LATE AFTERNOON. HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL ADDED TO AFTERNOON THUNDER RISK.
WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL NOTED BY SPC.  SHOULD
WET MICROBURST OCCURR..LOCAL 5.0 INCH RAIN MAY
FOLLOW.                                     GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 313 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2006)

DISCUSSION...
BULK OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED TO OUR NORTH THIS
MORNING...AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE DURING THE DAY...WHILE THINNING CLOUD COVER
BY AFTERNOON ALLOWS TEMPS TO WARM WELL INTO THE 90S MOST
LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...MODERATE
INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH MINIMAL INHIBITION IN
PLACE. EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP BY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH NEAREST THE MORE DEFINED SURFACE
BOUNDARIES. SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH DOWNBURST WINDS THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE GIVEN MOISTURE
DEPTH.

BROAD MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS REMAINING TO
OUR WEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE COMBINED WITH THE
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED PRECIP CHANCES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN U.S. BY LATE WEEK WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVES TRACKING ALONG
ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. WILL CONTINUE WITH VERY LOW PRECIP CHANCES
AFTER WEDNESDAY AS FORCING WEAKENS AND SURFACE BOUNDARIES REMAIN
NORTH. HEAT WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN BY LATE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...AS A PROLONGED STRETCH OF VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS
LOOKS PROBABLE ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WELL ABOVE 100 DEGREES.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM FORECASTER ID= 21
LONG TERM FORECASTER ID= 17

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