Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2006

Mesoscale Discussion 2002

September 22, 20066 counties in Arkansas; 17 counties in Missouri; 11 counties in Oklahoma

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 22, 2006, 11:10 AM CDT for 6 counties in Arkansas; 17 counties in Missouri; 11 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 95 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 22, 2006, 11:10 AM CDT (16:10 UTC)
Expired
Sep 22, 2006, 12:45 PM CDT
In force
95 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
All 34 counties

Benton County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Madison County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Washington County, AR, Barry County, MO, Camden County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Newton County, MO, Polk County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Latimer County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, McCurtain County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 4.2 hours before the alert went out and 117 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2006-09-22Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 409 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2006-09-22The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 311 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
409 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-55 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
642 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
66 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
311 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
363 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.8
Supercell composite
8.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
ACUS11 KWNS 221611
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221610 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-221745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2002
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK INTO SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 221610Z - 221745Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
NECESSARY.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK SURFACE LOW NE OF TUL ALONG
ATTENDANT PRESSURE TROUGH/CONFLUENCE LINE EXTENDING NE-SW FROM CNTRL
MO INTO S-CNTRL OK.  MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT SWLY 40-50 KT LLJ IS
CONTRIBUTING TO NWD MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE
EXTENDING FROM NERN OK SURFACE LOW INTO FAR SWRN MO AND THEN MORE
SEWD INTO NERN AR.  VISIBLE SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT BOUNDARY-LAYER
ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY BUOYANT WITH
HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED FROM SGF SWWD TO
E OF TUL...AND AN INCREASING CUMULUS FIELD SWD ACROSS ERN OK.

THE ABSENCE OF ANY DISCERNIBLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN BROAD TROUGH
OVER THE S-CNTRL U.S. SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY GRADUALLY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS MOIST AIR MASS WHERE MLCAPES SHOULD
INCREASE TO 2000-3000 J/KG...DESPITE MID-LEVEL WARM NOSE OBSERVED ON
12Z SOUNDINGS. BOTH LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WW WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

..MEAD.. 09/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...

34529574 35469557 36479508 37199445 38019352 38099281
37799233 37269234 36399322 35269415 34189463 33799481
34009573

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 21, 7:50 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Franklin, Garland, Hot Spring, Howard, Logan and 7 more115 min
Sep 21, 7:58 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Madison, Washington2 hr
Sep 21, 9:30 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCArkansas, Clark, Conway, Crawford, Faulkner, Franklin and 24 more8 hr
Sep 21, 11:25 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Conway, Crawford, Franklin, Garland, Hot Spring and 16 more2 hr
Sep 22, 4:08 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Clay, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead, Crittenden and 23 more67 min
Sep 22, 4:39 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCClay, Cleburne, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Fulton and 17 more5 hr
Sep 22, 8:35 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne, Cleveland and 53 more85 min
Sep 22, 9:10 AM CDTTornado Watch PDSSPCArkansas, Baxter, Boone, Clark, Clay, Cleburne and 46 more9 hr
Sep 22, 12:06 PM CDTTornado Watch PDSSPCBenton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian and 1 more9 hr
Sep 22, 12:15 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Baxter, Boone, Bradley, Calhoun, Carroll and 64 more90 min
Sep 22, 3:00 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArkansas, Baxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Clark and 58 more90 min
Sep 22, 5:58 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead, Crawford, Cross and 38 more92 min
Sep 22, 6:29 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBaxter, Boone, Clay, Cleburne, Craighead, Fulton and 16 more7 hr
Sep 22, 12:49 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBollinger, Callaway, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Crawford, Dent and 23 more2 hr
Sep 22, 1:16 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAudrain, Bollinger, Boone, Butler, Callaway, Cape Girardeau and 31 more8 hr
Sep 22, 5:08 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Crawford, Dent and 33 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2006Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2006Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2006Every mesoscale discussion in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.