Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2006
Mesoscale Discussion 2002
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 22, 2006, 11:10 AM CDT for 6 counties in Arkansas; 17 counties in Missouri; 11 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 95 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 22, 2006, 11:10 AM CDT (16:10 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 22, 2006, 12:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 95 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
All 34 counties
Benton County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Madison County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Washington County, AR, Barry County, MO, Camden County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Newton County, MO, Polk County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Latimer County, OK, LeFlore County, OK, McCurtain County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK
The radar
The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 4.2 hours before the alert went out and 117 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 409 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -55 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 642 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 66 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 311 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 363 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.8
- Supercell composite
- 8.7
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 ACUS11 KWNS 221611 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221610 MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-221745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2002 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK INTO SWRN MO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 221610Z - 221745Z THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IS FORECAST TO INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NECESSARY. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK SURFACE LOW NE OF TUL ALONG ATTENDANT PRESSURE TROUGH/CONFLUENCE LINE EXTENDING NE-SW FROM CNTRL MO INTO S-CNTRL OK. MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT SWLY 40-50 KT LLJ IS CONTRIBUTING TO NWD MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE EXTENDING FROM NERN OK SURFACE LOW INTO FAR SWRN MO AND THEN MORE SEWD INTO NERN AR. VISIBLE SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT BOUNDARY-LAYER ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY BUOYANT WITH HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED FROM SGF SWWD TO E OF TUL...AND AN INCREASING CUMULUS FIELD SWD ACROSS ERN OK. THE ABSENCE OF ANY DISCERNIBLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN BROAD TROUGH OVER THE S-CNTRL U.S. SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY GRADUALLY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS MOIST AIR MASS WHERE MLCAPES SHOULD INCREASE TO 2000-3000 J/KG...DESPITE MID-LEVEL WARM NOSE OBSERVED ON 12Z SOUNDINGS. BOTH LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ..MEAD.. 09/22/2006 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN... 34529574 35469557 36479508 37199445 38019352 38099281 37799233 37269234 36399322 35269415 34189463 33799481 34009573
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 7:50 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clark, Franklin, Garland, Hot Spring, Howard, Logan and 7 more | 115 min |
| Sep 21, 7:58 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benton, Madison, Washington | 2 hr |
| Sep 21, 9:30 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Arkansas, Clark, Conway, Crawford, Faulkner, Franklin and 24 more | 8 hr |
| Sep 21, 11:25 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clark, Conway, Crawford, Franklin, Garland, Hot Spring and 16 more | 2 hr |
| Sep 22, 4:08 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Clay, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead, Crittenden and 23 more | 67 min |
| Sep 22, 4:39 AM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Clay, Cleburne, Craighead, Crittenden, Cross, Fulton and 17 more | 5 hr |
| Sep 22, 8:35 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne, Cleveland and 53 more | 85 min |
| Sep 22, 9:10 AM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Arkansas, Baxter, Boone, Clark, Clay, Cleburne and 46 more | 9 hr |
| Sep 22, 12:06 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Benton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian and 1 more | 9 hr |
| Sep 22, 12:15 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Baxter, Boone, Bradley, Calhoun, Carroll and 64 more | 90 min |
| Sep 22, 3:00 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Arkansas, Baxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Clark and 58 more | 90 min |
| Sep 22, 5:58 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clark, Cleburne, Conway, Craighead, Crawford, Cross and 38 more | 92 min |
| Sep 22, 6:29 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Baxter, Boone, Clay, Cleburne, Craighead, Fulton and 16 more | 7 hr |
| Sep 22, 12:49 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bollinger, Callaway, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Crawford, Dent and 23 more | 2 hr |
| Sep 22, 1:16 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Audrain, Bollinger, Boone, Butler, Callaway, Cape Girardeau and 31 more | 8 hr |
| Sep 22, 5:08 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Crawford, Dent and 33 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2006Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2006Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2006Every mesoscale discussion in 2006
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.