Severe Thunderstorm Warning 334, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
251 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

STRONG STORMS POPPED UP IN THE WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CWFA. WILL BE UPPING POPS THROUGH THE EVENING. LINGERING
NOISE IN MODEL OUTPUT PRODUCE SPURRIOUS BULLSEYES OVER CENTRAL CWFA
OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH CONVECTION BEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WILL HOLD
OFF ON POPS UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND EAST
ACROSS THE AREA...DEFLECTING SHORT WAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE
AREA...BUT CONTINUING THE WARM TREND. MEANWHILE...THE BERMUDA HIGH
REASSERTS ITSELF WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW BEING REESTABLISHED AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT. DIURNAL POP CHANCE FOR TSRA AGAIN FRIDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPS 90 TO 95 BOTH THU AND FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

UPPER TROUGH SLIDING OVER EASTERN CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS
DIFFER ON AMPLIFICATION OF EAST COAST TROUGH...GFS MORE AMPLIFIED
THAN NAM. OTHER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS LEAN TOWARD GFS CAMP. AT THE
SURFACE...COLD FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST MID ATLC LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. THUS SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. HAVE MODIFIED HPC GUIDANCE AND KEPT IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY. THINK GFS MAY BE TOO FAST ON MOVING FRONT THROUGH ON
SUNDAY. CONTINUE MENTION OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES AROUND OR COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY BELOW SUNDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED CU FIELD INCREASING AS AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ESPECIALLY
EAST/SOUTHEAST SECTIONS. SCT LAYERS 5-6KFT. VSBYS GENERALLY
UNRESTRICTED EXCEPT VSBYS 4-6 MI HAZE FAY VICINITY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY THUNDER DEVELOPING BRIEFLY LOWERING CIGS 4-5KFT.
WILL MENTION CB AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
ALL SITES 09Z THROUGH 13Z...OCNLY LOWERING VSBYS 3-5 MILES EXCEPT
POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS RWI/FAY SITES. SCATTERED CU AROUND 5KFT
DEVELOPING ALL TAF SITES BY END OF TAF PERIOD.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MLM
LONG TERM...RA
AVIATION...RA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
555 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-201000-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
555 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

BERYL IS NOT A PLAYER IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WEATHER. A FEW
EASTERN LOCATIONS WILL SEE HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 103 FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
219 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

NCZ025-041-191930-
DURHAM-WAKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DURHAM...RALEIGH
219 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN GRANVILLE COUNTY
WILL BE SPREADING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN DURHAM AND WAKE COUNTIES
THROUGH 300 PM. WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND
POSSIBLY SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS.

SOME LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE BUTNER...ROUGEMONT...
GORMAN...AND THE FALLS LAKE AREA. BOATERS ON FALLS LAKE SHOULD SEEK
HARBOR AS THESE STORMS APPROACH. OTHERS INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES SHOULD SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
221 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STEM                    36.20N 78.72W
07/19/2006                   GRANVILLE          NC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            DEPARTMENT OF HIGHWAYS REPORTED TREES DOWN AND BLOCKING
            ROADS IN STEM AND CORNWALL.

&&

REU

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