Severe Thunderstorm Warning 329, NWS Raleigh, NC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
125 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

WILL BE UPDATING TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON. TWEAKING TEMPS DOWN JUST A TOUCH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 215 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2006)

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL HAVE A SLIGHT EASTWARD
COMPONENT TO ITS MOTION THIS MORNING BEFORE RISING NORTH NORTHEAST
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS THIS AFTERNOON. IMPACT ON CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ALMOST NOTHING. MID LEVEL HIGH DOES SLIP MORE TOWARD
ASHEVILLE BY SUNSET AND THIS MAY CHIP A DEGREE OFF TUESDAY HIGHS.
BEING ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...NO CIRRUS CLOUDS. DEW POINTS
UP MINIMALLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND EXPECT A FEW
LOCATIONS TO HAVE HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100 FOR A FEW HOURS. DO NOT
PLAN TO PUT OUT ANY STATEMENT...IT IS MID JULY IN NORTH CAROLINA.

TRENDING HIGHS DOWNWARD EACH DAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT ONLY A
DEGREE A DAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF 70 EACH
MORNING.

WITH GFS HAVING FEEDBACK PROBLEMS AND GENERATING SPURIOUS RAINFALL
MAXIMUMS AND NAM NO WHERE NEAR THE TPC TRACK FOR BERYL...AND
CONSIDERING THE COARSENESS OF OTHER MODELS AVAILABLE...GETTING A
FIRM HANDLE ON THE FORECAST DIFFICULT. GFS LIKELY WAY OVERDONE WITH
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. WITH MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTING WELL WEST OF NORTH CAROLINA BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD SOAR FROM PERHAPS SIX PERCENT OR SO
TODAY TO AROUND TWENTY PERCENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE.
FALLING HEIGHTS WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING THE
BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN IN SEVERAL DAYS...PERHAPS AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY AND CERTAINLY ON SUNDAY...ASSUMING THE MODELS HAVE A
CLUE. WEEKEND HIGHS MAY BE TOO WARM BUT NO ADJUSTMENT AT THIS TIME.
LOW TEMPERATURES LIKELY MOVING INTO THE MID 70S FOR MOST AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. MONDAY LOOKS DRY WITH TINY AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES NOT FAR FROM NORMALS FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK.

AVIATION...
AIR MASS REMAINS DRY OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER WEAK ON SHORE FLOW
DURING THE EVENING PUSHED DEW POINTS UP IN THE EAST. MVFR VISIBILITY
RDU...RWI AND FAY 09Z TO 13Z WITH IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE RWI.
OTHERWISE SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES 5 THOUSAND FEET AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. CALM WINDS THROUGH 13Z BECOMING NORTHEAST
4 TO 8 MPH.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MLM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
555 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-201000-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
555 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

BERYL IS NOT A PLAYER IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WEATHER. A FEW
EASTERN LOCATIONS WILL SEE HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 103 FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
219 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

NCZ025-041-191930-
DURHAM-WAKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DURHAM...RALEIGH
219 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN GRANVILLE COUNTY
WILL BE SPREADING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN DURHAM AND WAKE COUNTIES
THROUGH 300 PM. WINDS GUSTING 40 TO 50 MPH...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND
POSSIBLY SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS.

SOME LOCATIONS WHICH WILL BE AFFECTED INCLUDE BUTNER...ROUGEMONT...
GORMAN...AND THE FALLS LAKE AREA. BOATERS ON FALLS LAKE SHOULD SEEK
HARBOR AS THESE STORMS APPROACH. OTHERS INVOLVED IN OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES SHOULD SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
221 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STEM                    36.20N 78.72W
07/19/2006                   GRANVILLE          NC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            DEPARTMENT OF HIGHWAYS REPORTED TREES DOWN AND BLOCKING
            ROADS IN STEM AND CORNWALL.

&&

REU