Alert archive / North Carolina / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2006

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 328, NWS Raleigh, NC

July 19, 2006Granville County, North Carolina

NWS Raleigh, NC issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 19, 2006, 1:54 PM EDT for Granville County, North Carolina. It was in force for 51 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 19, 2006, 1:54 PM EDT (17:54 UTC)
Expired: Jul 19, 2006, 2:45 PM EDT
In force: 51 min
Issued by: NWS Raleigh, NC
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Granville County, NC

The radar

The Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 73 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 5.9 hours before the alert went out and 115 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1012 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -73 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1206 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 6 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -5 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: -22 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 19, 1:25 PM EDT, 29 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 19, 1:25 PM EDT, 29 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
125 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...

WILL BE UPDATING TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSRA
THIS AFTERNOON. TWEAKING TEMPS DOWN JUST A TOUCH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 (ISSUED 215 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2006)

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOOKS LIKE TROPICAL STORM BERYL WILL HAVE A SLIGHT EASTWARD
COMPONENT TO ITS MOTION THIS MORNING BEFORE RISING NORTH NORTHEAST
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS THIS AFTERNOON. IMPACT ON CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA ALMOST NOTHING. MID LEVEL HIGH DOES SLIP MORE TOWARD
ASHEVILLE BY SUNSET AND THIS MAY CHIP A DEGREE OFF TUESDAY HIGHS.
BEING ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...NO CIRRUS CLOUDS. DEW POINTS
UP MINIMALLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM 24 HOURS AGO AND EXPECT A FEW
LOCATIONS TO HAVE HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100 FOR A FEW HOURS. DO NOT
PLAN TO PUT OUT ANY STATEMENT...IT IS MID JULY IN NORTH CAROLINA.

TRENDING HIGHS DOWNWARD EACH DAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BUT ONLY A
DEGREE A DAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE OF 70 EACH
MORNING.

WITH GFS HAVING FEEDBACK PROBLEMS AND GENERATING SPURIOUS RAINFALL
MAXIMUMS AND NAM NO WHERE NEAR THE TPC TRACK FOR BERYL...AND
CONSIDERING THE COARSENESS OF OTHER MODELS AVAILABLE...GETTING A
FIRM HANDLE ON THE FORECAST DIFFICULT. GFS LIKELY WAY OVERDONE WITH
LOW MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY. WITH MID LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTING WELL WEST OF NORTH CAROLINA BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...RAIN CHANCES SHOULD SOAR FROM PERHAPS SIX PERCENT OR SO
TODAY TO AROUND TWENTY PERCENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE.
FALLING HEIGHTS WITH APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING THE
BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN IN SEVERAL DAYS...PERHAPS AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY AND CERTAINLY ON SUNDAY...ASSUMING THE MODELS HAVE A
CLUE. WEEKEND HIGHS MAY BE TOO WARM BUT NO ADJUSTMENT AT THIS TIME.
LOW TEMPERATURES LIKELY MOVING INTO THE MID 70S FOR MOST AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. MONDAY LOOKS DRY WITH TINY AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES NOT FAR FROM NORMALS FOR THE NEW WORK WEEK.

AVIATION...
AIR MASS REMAINS DRY OVER THE AREA...HOWEVER WEAK ON SHORE FLOW
DURING THE EVENING PUSHED DEW POINTS UP IN THE EAST. MVFR VISIBILITY
RDU...RWI AND FAY 09Z TO 13Z WITH IFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE RWI.
OTHERWISE SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES 5 THOUSAND FEET AND
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITY. CALM WINDS THROUGH 13Z BECOMING NORTHEAST
4 TO 8 MPH.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MLM

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 19, 5:55 AM EDT, 7 hours 59 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
555 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

NCZ007>011-021>028-038>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-201000-
PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-FORSYTH-GUILFORD-ALAMANCE-
ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH-EDGECOMBE-DAVIDSON-RANDOLPH-CHATHAM-
WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE-
ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON-
555 AM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

BERYL IS NOT A PLAYER IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA WEATHER. A FEW
EASTERN LOCATIONS WILL SEE HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 103 FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 19, 8:28 AM EDT, 5 hours 26 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Raleigh, NC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 19, 2:29 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Durham, Wake	61 min
Jul 19, 2:34 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Richmond	41 min
Jul 19, 2:45 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Moore	60 min
Jul 19, 3:08 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Granville, Person	52 min
Jul 19, 3:24 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Anson	51 min
Jul 19, 3:27 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Chatham	48 min
Jul 19, 3:41 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Vance	49 min
Jul 19, 4:07 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Cumberland, Harnett	38 min
Jul 19, 4:09 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Warren	51 min
Jul 19, 4:17 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Chatham	23 min
Jul 19, 4:32 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Richmond	43 min
Jul 19, 5:01 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Hoke	44 min
Jul 19, 5:05 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Halifax	40 min
Jul 19, 5:10 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Nash	50 min
Jul 19, 5:33 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Moore	27 min
Jul 19, 5:45 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Hoke	30 min
Jul 19, 5:52 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Guilford	38 min
Jul 19, 5:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Nash	32 min
Jul 19, 6:31 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Guilford	32 min
Jul 19, 6:41 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Johnston	34 min
Jul 19, 7:15 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Johnston	26 min
Jul 19, 7:20 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	RAH	Forsyth	40 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Carolina, 2006 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.