Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
340 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...
STORMS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THIS APPEARS TO BE THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER SEVERE-WEATHER
EVENT. THE EMPHASIS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE SEVERE STORMS IN
OUR WESTERN COUNTIES... BUT THEN IT APPEARS THAT THE STORMS WILL
MERGE INTO A LARGE MCS AND MARCH EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OR
SO OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL PROBABLY FALL
WITHIN A COUPLE OF COUNTIES OF THE RED RIVER. THE AREA FROM NEAR
WICHITA FALLS... EAST TO DURANT... AND NORTH FROM THERE... RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS... AND THE COMBINATION
OF WET GROUND AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN FLOODING. A
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
FOR THIS.

IT APPEARS THAT CONVECTION WILL FOCUS ON A COLD FRONT FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON... THEN SAG EVER SO SLOWLY SOUTH. IT SHOULD
FINALLY BE SHOVED DEEP INTO TEXAS ON SATURDAY... BUT RAIN WILL BE
A GOOD BET... ESPECIALLY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD... ON WEDNESDAY... THURSDAY... AND FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT... RAIN MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY.

AFTER A WHOLE DAY OF DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY... RAIN CHANCES RESUME
ON MONDAY AS YET ANOTHER WAVE IN THE JET STREAM APPROACHES THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE REASONABLY MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...
ALTHOUGH A LITTLE COOL NORTH OF THE FRONT LATE THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  66  80  60  70 /  70  50  60  30
HOBART OK         65  82  57  70 /  80  50  60  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  66  87  64  79 /  70  40  60  40
GAGE OK           61  76  52  66 /  50  50  40  30
PONCA CITY OK     64  75  55  67 /  60  50  60  40
DURANT OK         68  87  68  80 /  70  30  50  40

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR OKZ038-OKZ039-OKZ041-OKZ043-OKZ044-OKZ045-OKZ046-OKZ047-
     OKZ048-OKZ050-OKZ051-OKZ052.

TX...FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
     FOR TXZ086-TXZ089-TXZ090.

&&

25/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1155 AM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-031200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1155 AM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM ALVA... TO EL RENO...
TO DUNCAN...INCLUDING ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 3 PM ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE DRY LINE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AFTER 3 PM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

IMPACTS...
HAIL AROUND THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS
AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER 70 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
...PARTICULARLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM ALVA...TO WEATHERFORD...TO
WICHITA FALLS FROM 5 PM TO 9 PM.

FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

RECOMMENDED ACTION...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND SHOULD CONSIDER THE NEED FOR EXTENDED OPERATIONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF A FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM NEAR
ABILENE TO SOUTH OF DALLAS WILL LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.

A DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE EAST OF THE DRYLINE DURING THE DAY WITH THE
AIRMASS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY
OF THE DRYLINE...WITH INITIATION ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF
THE WEAKENING FRONT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERNS.
HOWEVER... A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS... ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF THE WEAKENING FRONT AND DRYLINE. THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS AND MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN SOME AREAS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS IF ONE OR MORE OF THE CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY MAY 2.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...95 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE AREA
AND MULTIPLE SURFACE FRONTS MOVE INTO THE AREA. INSTABILITY AND WIND
FIELDS WILL ALSO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOST
DAYS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
WEDNESDAY.

MAXWELL/DA

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
639 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

OKZ011-015-030000-
MAJOR OK-DEWEY OK-
639 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR DEWEY AND MAJOR COUNTIES.

DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ORION...AND JUST EAST OF TALOGA AT 639 PM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

STORM INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND SEVERE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP RAPIDLY.

PEOPLE IN DEWEY AND MAJOR COUNTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND REMAIN ALERT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
650 PM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             11 N GOODLETT           34.49N 99.88W
05/02/2006  E0.88 INCH       HARDEMAN           TX   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

JLP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
655 PM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             5 W ELDORADO            34.47N 99.74W
05/02/2006  E0.75 INCH       JACKSON            OK   PUBLIC

&&

JLP