Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
943 PM CDT MON MAY 1 2006

.UPDATE...
MAIN CHANGE TO GOING FORECAST WILL BE TO LOWER POPS ACROSS THE
BOARD AND REMOVE THEM FROM THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES. FORCING BY
UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING...EVIDENT BY THE DISSIPATION OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND ACCAS
THAT WE SAW AT SUNSET. CONVECTIVE COMPLEX JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
DOESNT BODE WELL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION FARTHER NORTH
EITHER...BUT AM RELUCTANT TO REMOVE POPS COMPLETELY.

MUCH MORE ACTIVITY EXPECTED BY LATE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MCS TYPE PASSAGE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 339 PM CDT MON MAY 1 2006)

DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN CROSSING OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY NOW
LIES FROM NEAR SHAWNEE... TO LAWTON... TO NEAR WICHITA FALLS
TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST... BUT
CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. A FEW STORMS MAY
FORM ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT... MAINLY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. CIN REMAINS QUITE HIGH... AND THERE IS NO CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT... SO WE WOULD NOT EXPECT STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR A FEW
HOURS YET.

TOMORROW LOOKS STORMY AGAIN... THIS TIME OVER OUR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE COMBINATION OF A DRYLINE... HIGH CAPE
VALUES... AND REDUCED CIN... SHOULD SET THE SCENE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. THE STORMS MAY ORGANIZE
INTO AN MCS IN NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TOMORROW NIGHT... AND POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED IN THAT AREA ACCORDINGLY.

THE STORMFEST CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS VARIOUS
WAVES PASS THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. IT APPEARS THAT A COOL
AIRMASS OF SUFFICIENT STRENGTH TO TEMPORARILY SHUT OFF THE STORMS
WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY... AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES MAY BE QUITE WARM IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES TOMORROW...
AND IN OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER THAT... SEASONAL
70S FOR HIGHS AND MOSTLY 50S FOR LOWS SHOULD BE THE RULE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  58  84  64  80 /  20  20  40  40
HOBART OK         57  87  63  85 /  10  30  30  30
WICHITA FALLS TX  60  87  66  87 /  20  20  20  20
GAGE OK           53  87  60  76 /   0  30  40  40
PONCA CITY OK     54  83  63  76 /  10  20  60  50
DURANT OK         64  84  67  83 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

11/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
910 PM CDT MON MAY 01 2006

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-021200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
910 PM CDT MON MAY 01 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM RINGLING...TO
PAULS VALLEY...TO SEMINOLE.

IMPACTS...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RECOMMENDED ACTION...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD MONITOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...
A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL COMBINE WITH A PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY AREA FOR INITIATION WILL BE FROM AROUND PAULS
VALLEY...ARDMORE...AND MARIETTA EASTWARD. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...FLOODING PROBLEMS
WILL BE ANOTHER CONCERN DUE TO THE HEAVY RAINS SEEN THIS PAST
WEEKEND.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY MAY 2.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...40 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...30 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA
TUESDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BE SEVERE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE AREA
AND MULTIPLE SURFACE FRONTS MOVE INTO THE AREA. INSTABILITY AND WIND
FIELDS WILL ALSO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOST
DAYS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
TUESDAY.

24/11

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