Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
257 AM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...
BEGINNINGS OF ACTIVE WEEK HAVE BEGUN THIS MORNING HAS CONVECTION
QUICKLY DEVELOP ALONG ELEVATED BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH OTHER DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE RED RIVER. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST AND DISSIPATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
WILL HOWEVER INCREASE POPS FOR SE OK FIRST PART OF PERIOD. FOR LATER
TODAY SHOULD SEE DRYLINE BECOME ACTIVE WITH POSSIBILITY OF ONE OR
MORE MCS AFFECTING AREA OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY THEN HAS ANOTHER
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS PARTS OF AREA BEFORE
STALLING AND ACTING AS FOCUS FOR MORE STORMS INTO THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH
MAIN SFC BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SHIFT SOUTH OF AREA FOR FRIDAY... THINK
MUCH LIKE TONIGHT IS WILL BE SHALLOW WITH ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH TO KEEP AT LEAST CHANCE
POPS GOING THROUGH FRIDAY. WILL KEEP WEEKEND DRY AT THIS POINT AS
DRIER SFC HIGH TRIES TO DEEPEN AND SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS AREA. THIS
MAY BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH WORKS EAST ACROSS CENTRAL
U.S. BY MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. WILL INTRO LOW POPS FOR LATER PART OF
EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO OTHER
GRIDS THIS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK  84  65  81  60 /  30  60  40  40
HOBART OK         87  64  84  58 /  30  50  40  40
WICHITA FALLS TX  88  66  87  63 /  30  40  30  50
GAGE OK           87  60  76  52 /  30  40  40  30
PONCA CITY OK     83  63  78  56 /  20  60  40  50
DURANT OK         84  67  85  67 /  40  40  20  50

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

02/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
200 AM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-021200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
910 PM CDT MON MAY 01 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS SOUTH AND EAST OF A SEYMOUR TEXAS...TO
LAWTON...TO STILLWATER.

IMPACTS...
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

RECOMMENDED ACTION...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD MONITOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

DISCUSSION...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTH OF WICHITA FALLS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EARLY
THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET HAD DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT NEAR AND NORTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET ENHANCES LIFT ABOVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE LATER THIS MORNING AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY MAY 2.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...60 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A DEVELOPING DRYLINE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA
TUESDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SOME OF THESE STORMS TO BE SEVERE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS CLOSE TO THE AREA
AND MULTIPLE SURFACE FRONTS MOVE INTO THE AREA. INSTABILITY AND WIND
FIELDS WILL ALSO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOST
DAYS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
TUESDAY.

24/11/2

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
328 AM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 AM     HAIL             4 W JOLLY               33.88N 98.42W
05/02/2006  E1.00 INCH       CLAY               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HAIL COVERING THE GROUND ON HIGHWAY 87 AT CLAY AND
            WICHITA COUNTY LINE. RELAYED BY WICHITA COUNTY OFFICIAL.

&&

BURKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
352 AM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 AM     HAIL             4 W WINDTHORST          33.58N 98.51W
05/02/2006  E1.25 INCH       ARCHER             TX   COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

SC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
424 AM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 AM     HAIL             LAKE ARROWHEAD          33.71N 98.37W
05/02/2006  E1.00 INCH       CLAY               TX   COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

SC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
438 AM CDT TUE MAY 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 AM     HAIL             IOWA PARK               33.96N 98.68W
05/02/2006  E0.88 INCH       WICHITA            TX   COUNTY OFFICIAL

&&

SC