Severe Thunderstorm Warning 236, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
634 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

.AVIATION...

FOR 20/0000Z TAFS...UPPER WAVE WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE TAF SITES
AT BEGINNING OF TAF VALID TIME. SCT TSRA WILL BE NEAR MOST TAF
SITES. WILL WATCH FOR CHANGES...BUT LOOKS LIKE VC MIGHT HANDLE IT AT
MOST SITES. TSRA WILL EXIT BY 02Z. NOT MUCH CLOUDINESS BEHIND WAVE
WITH SUBSIDENCE. MOIST LOW LEVELS LIKELY TO LEAD TO MVFR FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AFT 06Z. ADDITIONAL TSRA POSSIBLE AFT 18Z TUE
WITH YET ANOTHER WAVE...SO HAVE PUT CB IN TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...UPPR TROF CURRENTLY OVR THE GRTLKS XPCTD TO SWING
SEWD THRU THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVEN. AFTER THAT...RDGG WL BLD THRU
THE TN VLY...LEAVING AREA ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES AND
PRONE TO PERIODIC TSTM COMPLEXES. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
OVERALL. FCST FOCUS CENTERS ON POPS.

IN THE NR TERM...OTHER THAN TSTM CLUSTER OVR THE CENTRAL PARTS OF
THE CWA...NOT MUCH GOING ON ELSEWHERE YET. TSTMS STILL APPEAR
ELEVATED SO FAR...BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS SOUTH OF PRESENT ACTVTY JUST
ABOUT REACHED...SO ADDITIONAL SFC DVLPMNT LIKELY SOON. BASED ON
VARIOUS PARAMETERS...APPEARS BEST THREAT OF SVR SHOULD BE
ALONG/SOUTH OF CURRENT ACTVTY AS DEWPTS ARE FALLING OFF OVR THE NWRN
CWA. ADDITIONAL ACTVTY PSBL ALONG UPPR TROF AXIS CURRENTLY DROPPING
SEWD THRU SRN WI/NW IL AS WELL. ALL IN ALL...UPPR TROF PUSHES SEWD
OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 200300Z OR SO...SO PCPN THREAT SHOULD END BY
THAT TIME. WS510 IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE CWA TIL 200000Z.

IN THE LTR PDS...SFC FNT SETTLES SWD INTO THE AREA ON TUES...AND
MEANDERS AROUND IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
INSTABILITY PROGGED TO BE QUITE HIGH BY TUES AFT...ESPECIALLY OVR
THE SW ZONES...ALONG WITH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES ABV. WL BRING IN
CHC POPS BY THE AFT HRS ALL AREAS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS SW. WL
BROADBRUSH CHC POPS ALL AREAS INTO WED AS WELL AS OVERALL PTN POINTS
TO POTENTIAL TSTM COMPLEXES NEARBY FM TIME TO TIME.

LO LVL THICKNESSES AND TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THE NGM MOS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HIGHS IN THR LTR PDS.
WL BUMP UP THE NUMBERS IN THOSE PDS.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...CS
PUBLIC...JAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
442 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-202045-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
342 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 /442 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
LARGE HAIL
LIGHTNING
FLASH FLOODING
ISOLATED TORNADOS

AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH 1100 PM EDT OR 1000 PM CDT

DISCUSSION:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN
COMBINATION WITH THE WARM HUMID AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA WILL GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO KNOW MANY
DETAILS ON THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO
BE THE DAY THAT STORMS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACTIVATION SHOULD BE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

PUMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
730 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     HAIL             6 E PENDLETON           40.00N 85.63W
06/19/2006  E0.50 INCH       MADISON            IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

0710 PM     HAIL             3 NNE CADIZ             39.99N 85.46W
06/19/2006  E1.00 INCH       HENRY              IN   AMATEUR RADIO

0724 PM     HAIL             MUNCIE                  40.20N 85.39W
06/19/2006  E1.00 INCH       DELAWARE           IN   AMATEUR RADIO

0725 PM     HAIL             MUNCIE                  40.20N 85.39W
06/19/2006  E1.00 INCH       DELAWARE           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MUNCIE MALL

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
731 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 PM     HAIL             1 S ANDERSON            40.08N 85.69W
06/19/2006  E0.75 INCH       MADISON            IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
741 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HAIL             7 W GREENCASTLE         39.64N 86.97W
06/19/2006  E2.00 INCH       PUTNAM             IN   PUBLIC

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
744 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HAIL             3 S NEW CASTLE          39.88N 85.36W
06/19/2006  E0.75 INCH       HENRY              IN   AMATEUR RADIO

0740 PM     HAIL             7 W GREENCASTLE         39.64N 86.97W
06/19/2006  E1.75 INCH       PUTNAM             IN   PUBLIC

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
747 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 PM     HAIL             2 N ANDERSON            40.12N 85.69W
06/19/2006  E0.75 INCH       MADISON            IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

0742 PM     HAIL             5 N ANDERSON            40.17N 85.69W
06/19/2006  E0.75 INCH       MADISON            IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SR 9

&&

SMITH

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