Severe Thunderstorm Warning 225, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
220 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...UPPR TROF CURRENTLY OVR THE GRTLKS XPCTD TO SWING SEWD
THRU THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVEN. AFTER THAT...RDGG WL BLD THRU THE TN
VLY...LEAVING AREA ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES AND PRONE TO
PERIODIC TSTM COMPLEXES. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL.
FCST FOCUS CENTERS ON POPS.

IN THE NR TERM...OTHER THAN TSTM CLUSTER OVR THE CENTRAL PARTS OF
THE CWA...NOT MUCH GOING ON ELSEWHERE YET. TSTMS STILL APPEAR
ELEVATED SO FAR...BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS SOUTH OF PRESENT ACTVTY JUST
ABOUT REACHED...SO ADDITIONAL SFC DVLPMNT LIKELY SOON. BASED ON
VARIOUS PARAMETERS...APPEARS BEST THREAT OF SVR SHOULD BE
ALONG/SOUTH OF CURRENT ACTVTY AS DEWPTS ARE FALLING OFF OVR THE NWRN
CWA. ADDITIONAL ACTVTY PSBL ALONG UPPR TROF AXIS CURRENTLY DROPPING
SEWD THRU SRN WI/NW IL AS WELL. ALL IN ALL...UPPR TROF PUSHES SEWD
OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 200300Z OR SO...SO PCPN THREAT SHOULD END BY
THAT TIME. WS510 IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE CWA TIL 200000Z.

IN THE LTR PDS...SFC FNT SETTLES SWD INTO THE AREA ON TUES...AND
MEANDERS AROUND IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
INSTABILITY PROGGED TO BE QUITE HIGH BY TUES AFT...ESPECIALLY OVR
THE SW ZONES...ALONG WITH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES ABV. WL BRING IN
CHC POPS BY THE AFT HRS ALL AREAS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS SW. WL
BROADBRUSH CHC POPS ALL AREAS INTO WED AS WELL AS OVERALL PTN POINTS
TO POTENTIAL TSTM COMPLEXES NEARBY FM TIME TO TIME.

LO LVL THICKNESSES AND TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THE NGM MOS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HIGHS IN THR LTR PDS.
WL BUMP UP THE NUMBERS IN THOSE PDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 191800Z TAFS...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
WAS OVER INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS
IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 00Z. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY HAVE WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KTS AND 3/4 INCH HAIL. MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN AFTER FROPA AND WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN LIMITING FOG FORMATION TO MVFR LEVELS AROUND
SUNRISE.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...HAINES
PUBLIC...JAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
442 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-202045-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
342 PM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 /442 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
LARGE HAIL
LIGHTNING
FLASH FLOODING
ISOLATED TORNADOS

AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA THROUGH 1100 PM EDT OR 1000 PM CDT

DISCUSSION:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN
COMBINATION WITH THE WARM HUMID AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA WILL GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO KNOW MANY
DETAILS ON THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO
BE THE DAY THAT STORMS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ACTIVATION SHOULD BE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

PUMA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
317 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             GOSPORT                 39.35N 86.67W
06/19/2006  E1.75 INCH       OWEN               IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0309 PM     HAIL             MARTINSVILLE            39.42N 86.42W
06/19/2006  E0.75 INCH       MORGAN             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0312 PM     HAIL             MARTINSVILLE            39.42N 86.42W
06/19/2006  E1.00 INCH       MORGAN             IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

0311 PM     HAIL             6 N SPENCER             39.37N 86.77W
06/19/2006  E1.00 INCH       OWEN               IN   CO-OP OBSERVER

0200 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 NW SHELBYVILLE       39.63N 85.91W
06/19/2006                   SHELBY             IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MANY TREES DOWN

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
349 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     HAIL             ELLETTSVILLE            39.23N 86.62W
06/19/2006  E1.25 INCH       MONROE             IN   AMATEUR RADIO

0313 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 WSW SHELBYVILLE       39.47N 85.93W
06/19/2006                   SHELBY             IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN IN MANILLA AND HOMER

0313 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 S SHELBYVILLE         39.41N 85.78W
06/19/2006                   SHELBY             IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN IN MILROY

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
420 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 NE NASHVILLE          39.30N 86.12W
06/19/2006                   BROWN              IN   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES DOWNED ON SWEETWATER TRAIL.

0355 PM     HAIL             COLUMBUS                39.21N 85.91W
06/19/2006  E0.50 INCH       BARTHOLOMEW        IN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
445 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0344 PM     HAIL             BLOOMINGTON             39.17N 86.52W
06/19/2006  M0.75 INCH       MONROE             IN   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
507 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     HAIL             MEDORA                  38.82N 86.17W
06/19/2006  E1.00 INCH       JACKSON            IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

SMITH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
510 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0506 PM     HAIL             MEDORA                  38.82N 86.17W
06/19/2006  E1.00 INCH       JACKSON            IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN

&&

SMITH