Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS Indianapolis, IN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
220 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...UPPR TROF CURRENTLY OVR THE GRTLKS XPCTD TO SWING SEWD
THRU THE LOCAL AREA THIS EVEN. AFTER THAT...RDGG WL BLD THRU THE TN
VLY...LEAVING AREA ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES AND PRONE TO
PERIODIC TSTM COMPLEXES. MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL.
FCST FOCUS CENTERS ON POPS.

IN THE NR TERM...OTHER THAN TSTM CLUSTER OVR THE CENTRAL PARTS OF
THE CWA...NOT MUCH GOING ON ELSEWHERE YET. TSTMS STILL APPEAR
ELEVATED SO FAR...BUT CONVECTIVE TEMPS SOUTH OF PRESENT ACTVTY JUST
ABOUT REACHED...SO ADDITIONAL SFC DVLPMNT LIKELY SOON. BASED ON
VARIOUS PARAMETERS...APPEARS BEST THREAT OF SVR SHOULD BE
ALONG/SOUTH OF CURRENT ACTVTY AS DEWPTS ARE FALLING OFF OVR THE NWRN
CWA. ADDITIONAL ACTVTY PSBL ALONG UPPR TROF AXIS CURRENTLY DROPPING
SEWD THRU SRN WI/NW IL AS WELL. ALL IN ALL...UPPR TROF PUSHES SEWD
OF THE AREA BY ABOUT 200300Z OR SO...SO PCPN THREAT SHOULD END BY
THAT TIME. WS510 IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE CWA TIL 200000Z.

IN THE LTR PDS...SFC FNT SETTLES SWD INTO THE AREA ON TUES...AND
MEANDERS AROUND IN ONE FORM OR ANOTHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
INSTABILITY PROGGED TO BE QUITE HIGH BY TUES AFT...ESPECIALLY OVR
THE SW ZONES...ALONG WITH STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES ABV. WL BRING IN
CHC POPS BY THE AFT HRS ALL AREAS...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS SW. WL
BROADBRUSH CHC POPS ALL AREAS INTO WED AS WELL AS OVERALL PTN POINTS
TO POTENTIAL TSTM COMPLEXES NEARBY FM TIME TO TIME.

LO LVL THICKNESSES AND TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THE NGM MOS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO BE TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HIGHS IN THR LTR PDS.
WL BUMP UP THE NUMBERS IN THOSE PDS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR 191800Z TAFS...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
WAS OVER INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR WITH ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS
IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 00Z. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY HAVE WIND GUSTS OVER 50 KTS AND 3/4 INCH HAIL. MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN AFTER FROPA AND WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING.
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN LIMITING FOG FORMATION TO MVFR LEVELS AROUND
SUNRISE.

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...HAINES
PUBLIC...JAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
445 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

...CORRECT TYPO IN SPOTTER STATEMENT...

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-200845-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
345 AM CDT MON JUN 19 2006 /445 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE WILL BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL
INDIANA. STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE THIS MORNING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FIRST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE AFTER 4 PM EDT (3 PM CDT)
THIS AFTERNOON.

PRIMARY THREATS FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL IN ADDITION TO
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EVERY DAY FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO KNOW MANY
DETAILS ON THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO
BE THE DAY THAT STORMS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 4 PM EDT (3 PM CDT) THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
LOWERCASE)

LJ/PG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1013 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 SSW CRAWFORDSVILLE   39.91N 86.97W
06/18/2006                   MONTGOMERY         IN   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWNED.

0635 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ADVANCE                 40.00N 86.62W
06/18/2006                   BOONE              IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            8 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN

0707 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MECCA                   39.73N 87.33W
06/18/2006                   PARKE              IN   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWNED.

0745 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ARCADIA                 40.17N 86.02W
06/18/2006                   HAMILTON           IN   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWNED.

0750 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE BAINBRIDGE         39.78N 86.78W
06/18/2006                   PUTNAM             IN   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWNED.

&&

DTUCEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1016 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0607 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MECCA                   39.73N 87.33W
06/18/2006                   PARKE              IN   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWNED.

0633 PM     TSTM WND DMG     10 SSW CRAWFORDSVILLE   39.91N 86.97W
06/18/2006                   MONTGOMERY         IN   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWNED.

0635 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ADVANCE                 40.00N 86.62W
06/18/2006                   BOONE              IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            8 INCH DIAMETER TREE DOWN

0745 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ARCADIA                 40.17N 86.02W
06/18/2006                   HAMILTON           IN   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWNED.

0750 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE BAINBRIDGE         39.78N 86.78W
06/18/2006                   PUTNAM             IN   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            TREES DOWNED.

&&

DTUCEK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
122 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0118 PM     TSTM WND GST     BROWNSBURG              39.84N 86.39W
06/19/2006  E60.00 MPH       HENDRICKS          IN   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

SMITH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>