Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 312025
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
421 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

NCC115-312215-
MADISON NC-
421 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT FOR
MADISON COUNTY...

AT 418 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED JUST SCATTERED 
SHOWERS OVER MADISON COUNTY...BUT WAS ALSO SHOWING A GROWING BAND OF 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS. THIS 
BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE OVER MADISON COUNTY THROUGH 
EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE BAND MAY BE ENOUGH TO SEND 
SOME SHALLOWER STREAMS AND CREEKS OUT OF THEIR BANKS. THE FLASH 
FLOOD WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 615 PM.

COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL REPORT NO FLOODING 
ONGOING...AND IN FACT REPORT WATER LEVELS DROPPING ON SOME 
STREAMS...WHILE OTHERS WERE STAYING NEAR BANKFULL. IT WILL NOT 
TAKE MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IF EXCESSIVE RAIN FALLS 
IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...TO BRING SOME STREAMS AND CREEKS OUT OF 
THEIR BANKS.

TO REPORT HIGH WATER...FLOODING...MUDSLIDES...LANDSLIDES OR OTHER 
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL OUR TOLL
FREE NUMBER...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

LAT...LON 3571 8290 3569 8280 3573 8265 3583 8242
      3595 8252 3605 8263 3600 8275 3592 8285
      3581 8296

$$

44

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO LOCATION IN 2ND PARAGRAPH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1110 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
INTENSITY AND RAINFALL ESTIMATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER BANDS
OF ERNESTO HAVE DIMINISHED THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. RUC SHOWS A
DIMINISHING AND NORTHWARD MOVEMENT TO THE MOST INTENSE ISENTROPIC
LIFT AS WELL. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH RAINFALL RATES REMAINING MODERATE UNTIL AFTERNOON...WHEN
HEAVY RAINFALL RETURNS WITH INCREASED CONVECTION. WILL LEAVE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AS IS. COULD ADD 1 OR 2 COUNTIES...BUT WITH WARNINGS
ALREADY OUT...ADDITIONAL WATCH NOT LIKELY TO HEIGHTEN AWARENESS.

WEST OF I-77...MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS CONTINUES. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN. CANNOT RULE OUT
FLOOD WARNINGS HERE...BUT WIDESPREAD FLOODING UNLIKELY. VISIBLE
SAT PIX SHOW SOME BREAKS OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA.
SHOULD ANY DECENT HEATING OCCUR...INSTABILITY AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL INCREASE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 322 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KGSP STP RADAR PRODUCT INDICATES THAT A LARGE AREA ALONG AND EAST
OF I-77 RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN DURING THE PAST 24 HRS. RADAR
ESTIMATES AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAGES INDICATE THAT SEVERAL LOCATIONS
EAST OF I-85 AND 77 RECEIVED BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
SPOTS SEEING OVER 5 INCHES. CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHRA AND TSRA
IS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND A
STRONG CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER UNION NC...EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN FLASH FLOODING.

THE GFS IS THE PREFERRED MODEL SOLUTION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
JET DIVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION AHEAD OF ERNESTO. NHC TRACK AND THE
GFS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL CIRCULATION MAY PASS A
LITTLE FURTHER EAST. HPC QPF GUIDANCE HAS ALSO SHIFTED THE AXIS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL FURTHER EAST OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN AND CENTRAL NC.
GIVEN THE NEW TRACK AND QPF GUIDANCE FROM HPC AND THE GFS IT APPEARS
THAT THE NC PIEDMONT WILL SEE THE GREATEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE
CWA. WE EXPECT THAT THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF I-77 COULD SEE
WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER VALUES. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING...IN ADDITION TO THE
ONGOING EXPECTED FLOODING IN UNION NC. I WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE I-77 CORRIDOR FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ERNESTO PULLS NORTH OF THE FA TONIGHT AND RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN FROM THE SW...ESPECIALLY AFTER 12Z FRI. COVERAGE OF THE SHRA
AND TSRA SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WESTERN UPSLOPE REGIONS OF
THE NC MTNS DURING THE DAY FRI. SCT SHRA AND TSRA COULD EXIST EAST
OF THE MTNS INTO FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS A H5 TROF AXIS SHIFTS EAST.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGED DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

AVIATION...
WEATHER SHOULD GET INCREASINGLY SLOPPY AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH CEILINGS IN AND OUT OF IFR/LIFR TO GO ALONG
WITH MVFR VISIBILITY IN AND OUT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIP. ALL SIGNS
CONTINUE TO POINT TO A LONG DURATION OF MVFR/IFR CEILING/VIS FOR THE
BETTER PART OF THE DAY AS STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE CIRCULATION AROUND ERNESTO. FOLLOWING ALONG
WITH THE LATEST GFS...THE BEST FORCING FOR PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z FRIDAY. ALTHO PRECIP MIGHT END THIS EVENING...
EXPECT LOW CEILINGS/VIS TO PERSIST THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ036-037-057-071-072-082 UNTIL NOON
     FRIDAY.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
608 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-011015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
608 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY RANGE FROM FROM
2 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NC PIEDMONT TO 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER THE NC
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 77 TODAY AND POSSIBILITY
INTO TONIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN AND
COULD TRIGGER FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH (FFAGSP) IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE AREA ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 77 THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. ALSO...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SPSGSP) IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE PIEDMONT WEST TO THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER REPORTS OF FLOODING WOULD BE APPRECIATE. ALSO...PLEASE
REPORT ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 3 INCHES.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1119 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CHARLOTTE               35.20N 80.83W
08/31/2006                   MECKLENBURG        NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL MOBILE HOMES FLOODED BY STEELE CREEK ALONG JOHN
            PRICE ROAD.

&&

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1143 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

NCZ033-035-049-050-053-056-063>065-068>070-501>510-SCZ003-006>009-
012>014-312100-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...ASHEVILLE...
HICKORY...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...
GASTONIA...LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...LAKE LURE...RUTHERFORD...
COLUMBUS...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...
LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER
1143 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AS THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO APPROACHES THE CAROLINA
COAST THIS EVENING. CLUSTERS OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY THE BANDS AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND POSSIBLY
THE FOOTHILLS OF THE CAROLINAS. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE PERIODS
OF HEAVY RAIN...WITH RAINFALL RATES APPROACHING 2 INCHES AN HOUR.
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...RAIN HAS SATURATED THE SOIL AND HAS
ELEVATED LEVELS ON STREAMS AND CREEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD
LEAD TO FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE OR URBAN AREAS...ESPECIALLY NEAR
SMALL CREEKS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG AND EAST OF
INTERSTATE 77 THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1147 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 NE LAURENS            34.58N 81.93W
08/30/2006                   LAURENS            SC   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HIGHWAY MAINTENANCE REPORTS ONE TREE DOWN ON LANGSTON
            CHURCH ROAD...NE OF LAURENS.

&&

BSH