Severe Thunderstorm Warning 367, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
356 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

.DISCUSSION...
VERY BUSY DAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. OUTRAGEOUS HELICITY VALUES HAVE MORE
THAN MADE UP FOR THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...AND WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL
REPORTS OF TORNADOES ON THE GROUND. WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT UPPER
LOW STILL SPINNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE NM/TX/NORTHERN MEXICO
INTERFACE. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH ENERGY SHOOTING OUT FROM THE BOTTOM OF THE SYSTEM
OVER NORTH TEXAS. BESIDES THE OBVIOUS TORNADO THREAT...FLOODING
HAS INDEED PROVED TO BE AN ISSUE WITH THE TRAINING TENDENCY
EXHIBITED BY THESE CELLS. HAIL SEEMS TO BE HARDER TO COME BY THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND ONLY A FEW REPORTS OF PEA-SIZE HAIL HAVE
BEEN RECEIVED. WEAK DRY LINE/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR BROKEN SQUALL LINE
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE CHANCES FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL. GIVEN THE STRONGLY MERIDIONAL DEEP LAYER KINEMATIC
PROFILES...STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A THREAT.

UPPER LOW WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO CLEAR THE AREA...MAKING A SLOW
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS. EXPECT RAIN
TO COME TO AN END OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS BY TOMORROW EVENING
EVEN AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE VICINITY...AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO
WANE AND THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES DRY SLOTTED.
NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS/PRECIP AS WELL.

PACIFIC FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY AND WILL NOT HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES WILL MORE LIKELY BE NUDGED TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER TO MID 30S
FOR LOWS) AS SEVERAL SHOTS OF WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION FILTER INTO
THE AREA.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT NORTH TEXAS IN THE WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY TIME
FRAME AS A STRONG UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUES 20-40% POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA UNTIL MORE DETAILS CAN BE PINNED DOWN.
/13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  50  61  39  57  34 / 100  20  10   0   0
WACO, TX              50  62  39  59  36 / 100  20  10   0   0
PARIS, TX             54  62  39  54  33 / 100  50  20  10   0
DENTON, TX            50  59  38  54  32 / 100  20  10   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          51  61  37  54  32 / 100  40  20   0   0
DALLAS, TX            52  62  40  56  36 / 100  30  10   0   0
TERRELL, TX           52  62  39  56  36 / 100  40  10   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         53  63  40  59  35 / 100  30  10   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            49  63  39  61  34 /  90  20  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-301100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
325 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS PRIMED FOR ROTATING STORMS...AND TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A TORNADO WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 8 PM. SEVERAL TORNADOES
HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WINDS TO 60 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...NAMELY WITH A SQUALL LINE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FINALLY...
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. LOOK
FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO SHIFT EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...AS AN UPPER LOW ROTATES OUT OF THE
AREA AND A COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING EAST. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL EXPAND TO INCLUDE ALL OF NORTH TEXAS BY
THURSDAY MORNING AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD END NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ACROSS AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
213 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

TXZ133-292045-

JOHNSON-
213 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WESTERN JOHNSON COUNTY

AT 213 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CLEBURNE...MOVING NORTH AT
45 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BURLESON...CLEBURNE...
GODLEY...JOSHUA...KEENE AND CLEBURNE STATE PARK.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM CONTINUES ON ITS PRESENT COURSE AND INTENSITY...A
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3214 9762 3220 9734 3254 9732 3255 9762

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
221 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0217 PM     TORNADO          OGLESBY                 31.42N  97.51W
12/29/2006                   CORYELL            TX   PUBLIC

            GERALD BELL REP 12 STRUCTURES DAMAGED WITH ROOFS OFF
            BARNS AND OUTBUILDINGS DESTROYED NEAR FM 185 AND US 84
            INTERSECTION NO INJURIES REPORTED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
241 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TORNADO          2 W GROESBECK           31.52N  96.57W
12/29/2006                   LIMESTONE          TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORT OF STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WITH POSSIBLE INJURIES 2W
            GROESBECK ON 164

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
309 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0306 PM     TORNADO          8 NE CLIFTON            31.86N  97.48W
12/29/2006                   BOSQUE             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TORNADO ON GROUND 8 NE CLIFTON 1/4 MI WIDE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
353 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     HAIL             CLEBURNE                32.35N  97.41W
12/29/2006  E1.75 INCH       JOHNSON            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MAIN STREET IN CLEBURNE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

TXZ118-292230-

TARRANT-
400 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  TARRANT COUNTY

AT 400 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH ROTATION 6 MILES SOUTH OF KEENE...MOVING
NORTH AT 45 MPH.

IF THIS STORM CONTINUES ON ITS PRESENT COURSE...IT WILL ENTER
TARRANT COUNTY BY 430 PM. IF THE STORM MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY...A
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3257 9750 3257 9709 3293 9708 3294 9750