Flash Flood Warning 70, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
133 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

.UPDATE...
HAVE ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 887 TO INCLUDE THE NORTHERN HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS. BOTH TORNADO WATCH 886 AND 887 WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM.
EFFECTIVELY...THERE IS A TORNADO WATCH OUT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
EXCEPT FOR LAMAR...DELTA...AND HOPKINS COUNTIES. TORNADOES HAVE
ALREADY TOUCHED DOWN IN CORYELL AND ERATH COUNTIES.  /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO INCLUDE TORNADO WATCH 886 WHICH IS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CROSS PLAINS...TO GRANBURY...TO ATHENS UNTIL
8 PM. WARM FRONT LIES IN THIS REGION AND GIVEN THE EXTRA VORTICITY
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF STORM RELATIVE HELICITY...
TORNADO WATCH SEEMS LOGICAL.  /13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CST FRI DEC 29 2006/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF STRONG
UPPER LOW NOW SITUATED IN NORTHERN MEXICO/SOUTHERN NM. HAVE
GRADUALLY INCREASED SH/TS ACTIVITY IN THE TAFS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. AGREE WITH CWSU THAT MAIN FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND
TIMING OF STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD BE EARLIER THAN WAS STATED IN
PREVIOUS TAFS...AND HAVE SHIFTED +TSRA A FEW HRS EARLIER AT ALL
SITES. AS FAR AS THE CIGS...FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THEM IN THE MVFR
CAT...BUT THIS AND OTHER ASPECTS OF THE AVIATION FORECAST WILL
LIKELY NEED ADJUSTING AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS...AS IFR CIGS ARE
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING...
LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY A SQUALL LINE. EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT TO VFR
BETWEEN 10-12Z TOMORROW MORNING AS MOISTURE RETREATS...WITH BKN
VFR CIGS THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY 10Z...
FINALLY VEERING TO THE SW AROUND 6-8 KTS BY 15Z TOMORROW.  /13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CST FRI DEC 29 2006/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST STILL ON TRACK AS LARGE AND POWERFUL UPPER CYCLONE DRIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. ELEVATED
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS...WITH STRONGEST CLUSTER CURRENTLY LOCATED VCNTY
WACO. COLD FRONT WAS STRENGTHENING TO OUR WEST AND WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY LINEAR MCS.
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH HAIL
POTENTIAL IN THE MAINLY ELEVATED CLUSTERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
WITH WIND/MARGINAL HAIL ALONG LINEAR MCS ACTIVITY. HEAVY RAINS
ALSO EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS WITH PWATS WELL OVER 1 INCH AND REPEAT
DEVELOPMENT OF NORTH-SOUTH CLUSTERS.

NEW MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THE COMPLEX UPPER CYCLONE. HOWEVER...A SLIGHTLY
SLOWER MOVEMENT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS THE STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM LOCATED
NEAR CHIHUAHUA MEXICO OR ABOUT 150 MI SW OF KMRF. THIS CIRCULATION
FEATURE AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE INTO WEST
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY.
ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT/UPPER SUBSIDENCE LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON EVEN THOUGH MAIN UPPER LOW
CENTER MAY STILL BE IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

WILL MAKE SOME MINOR UPDATES TO GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO FINE
TUNE POPS AND QPF.                /09

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 533 AM CST FRI DEC 29 2006/

AVIATION...
UPPER LOW STILL SLOWER THAN MODELS HAVE FCST IN RECENT DAYS...SO
LOOK FOR MVFR CIGS/VCSH/SPOTTY -RA THRU 17Z-19Z PD TDY OVER N TX TAF
SITES. AS ELEVATED INVERSION(CAP) RISES WITH APPROACHING LARGE-
SCALE LIFT THIS AFTN...PREVAILING VFR CIGS WITH OCNL -SHRA WILL
PREVAIL...THEN INCREASING CHANCES OF TSRA TO OCCUR IN 00Z-08Z TIME
FRAME...AS CD FNT OVERTAKES SFC TROF OVER THE REGION. TOUGH FCST
AND SEVERAL AMDS LIKELY IN COMING 12-24 HRS. FOR NOW...ELY FLO TO
BECOME SELY BY 21Z AND BE GSTY 20-25 KTS...THEN SHIFT W/SW 10-15
KTS BEHIND BOUNDARY/FNT ARND 09Z SAT WITH CIGS GOING VFR (AS/AC/CS).

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CST FRI DEC 29 2006/

DISCUSSION...
440 AM CST

CHALLENGING FORECAST ONCE AGAIN. POTENT UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
TAKE ITS TIME APPROACHING TEXAS. WHILE THE RAIN EVENT HAS BEEN
CONTINUALLY DELAYED...THE RETARDED PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM HAS
ACTUALLY ALLOWED THE ATMOSPHERE TO PRIME ITSELF FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAIN. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN...AND PROJECTED PWATS WILL BE
EXTRAORDINARY FOR LATE DECEMBER.

SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION REMAINS OVER WEST TEXAS...WITH DEEP
SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW LIMITING EASTWARD PROGRESS. AS UPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES...MID-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND
DESTABILIZE. CONVECTION SHOULD BE PRIMARILY ELEVATED TODAY...BUT
CAP WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THROUGH DYNAMIC LIFTING. DRYLINE WILL
REACH WESTERN CWA NEAR SUNSET. ACCOMPANYING SQUALL LINE WILL
TRAVERSE CWA AT AN HOUR WHEN SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE
MINIMIZED. MP FRONT WILL PIVOT AROUND BASE OF SYSTEM...MORE OR
LESS OVERTAKING THE DRYLINE TONIGHT. LIFT FROM THE RESULTING SFC
BOUNDARY WILL COINCIDE WITH INTENSE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TO ALLOW
FOR DEEP CONVECTION AND WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS CWA TONIGHT.

SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS ON THE LOW END...BUT HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER CELLS. POTENTIAL FOR SFC-BASED STORMS IN SE ZONES
TODAY...BUT WIND THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO NEAR-BOUNDARY
CONVECTION TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY. INTENSE SPEED SHEAR IS PERPENDICULAR TO
EVENTUAL SFC BOUNDARY PASSAGE TONIGHT. SUCH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
WILL FAVOR SOME TRAINING ECHOES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THROUGHOUT
THE EVENT.

AFTER THE BIG EVENT...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL INTO THE
NEW YEAR. ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  67  51  59  39 / 100 100  20  10
WACO, TX              70  51  64  41 / 100 100  10  10
PARIS, TX             64  55  60  41 /  60 100  50  20
DENTON, TX            65  51  58  37 / 100 100  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          66  53  59  37 / 100 100  30  10
DALLAS, TX            67  52  59  40 / 100 100  20  10
TERRELL, TX           68  53  60  40 /  90 100  20  10
CORSICANA, TX         70  53  63  41 /  90 100  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            71  50  65  42 / 100 100  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
151 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-301100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
151 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS PRIMED FOR ROTATING STORMS...AND TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A TORNADO WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 8 PM. A FEW TORNADOES
HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WINDS TO 60 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...NAMELY WITH A SQUALL LINE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FINALLY...
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. LOOK
FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO SHIFT EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ACROSS AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
124 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

TXZ160-292000-

FALLS-
124 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN FALLS COUNTY

AT 124 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MARLIN...MOVING NORTH AT 40
MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.
IF STORMS APPROACH YOUR AREA...MOVE INSIDE A STRONG SHELTER.

LAT...LON 3117 9681 3118 9660 3151 9676 3150 9693

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
131 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0129 PM     TORNADO          10 E DUBLIN             32.09N  98.17W
12/29/2006                   ERATH              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO ON THE GROUND AT 1326 PM 4 MILES SOUTH OF
            ALEXANDER. TREES AND FENCES DOWN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
143 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0141 PM     TORNADO          8 E CLIFTON             31.78N  97.44W
12/29/2006                   BOSQUE             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NEAR COYOTE...RELAYED BY DEPT OF PUBLIC SAFETY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
144 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0136 PM     TORNADO          2 S STEPHENVILLE        32.19N  98.22W
12/29/2006                   ERATH              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            REPORTED BY SHERIFFS OFFICE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
154 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0153 PM     TORNADO          STEPHENVILLE            32.22N  98.22W
12/29/2006                   ERATH              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TORNADO ON GROUND AT 377N MOVING TOWARDS CR 176