Flash Flood Warning 72, NWS Fort Worth, TX

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 300058
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
656 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

TXC121-300215-
DENTON TX-
656 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CST FOR
EASTERN DENTON COUNTY...

AT 652 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN DENTON COUNTY. 
ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS APPROACHING DENTON 
COUNTY FROM THE WEST.

AN ADDITIONAL 1 INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS. 
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL 
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND 
UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

LAT...LON 3300 9720 3301 9687 3340 9685 3341 9725

$$

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 300141
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
739 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

TXC121-300215-
DENTON TX-
739 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CST FOR
DENTON COUNTY...

AT 738 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM WEST OF 
SANGER...TO NEAR ROANOKE. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WERE MOVING NORTH...BUT 
THE LINE WAS MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE COUNTY.

AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM THESE STORMS. 
EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS AND 
STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND 
FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS...STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING 
AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLOODING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3301 9730 3301 9687 3340 9685 3339 9736

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
356 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

.DISCUSSION...
VERY BUSY DAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. OUTRAGEOUS HELICITY VALUES HAVE MORE
THAN MADE UP FOR THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...AND WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL
REPORTS OF TORNADOES ON THE GROUND. WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT UPPER
LOW STILL SPINNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE NM/TX/NORTHERN MEXICO
INTERFACE. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH ENERGY SHOOTING OUT FROM THE BOTTOM OF THE SYSTEM
OVER NORTH TEXAS. BESIDES THE OBVIOUS TORNADO THREAT...FLOODING
HAS INDEED PROVED TO BE AN ISSUE WITH THE TRAINING TENDENCY
EXHIBITED BY THESE CELLS. HAIL SEEMS TO BE HARDER TO COME BY THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND ONLY A FEW REPORTS OF PEA-SIZE HAIL HAVE
BEEN RECEIVED. WEAK DRY LINE/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR BROKEN SQUALL LINE
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE CHANCES FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL. GIVEN THE STRONGLY MERIDIONAL DEEP LAYER KINEMATIC
PROFILES...STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A THREAT.

UPPER LOW WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO CLEAR THE AREA...MAKING A SLOW
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS. EXPECT RAIN
TO COME TO AN END OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS BY TOMORROW EVENING
EVEN AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE VICINITY...AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO
WANE AND THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES DRY SLOTTED.
NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS/PRECIP AS WELL.

PACIFIC FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY AND WILL NOT HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES WILL MORE LIKELY BE NUDGED TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER TO MID 30S
FOR LOWS) AS SEVERAL SHOTS OF WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION FILTER INTO
THE AREA.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT NORTH TEXAS IN THE WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY TIME
FRAME AS A STRONG UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUES 20-40% POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA UNTIL MORE DETAILS CAN BE PINNED DOWN.
/13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  50  61  39  57  34 / 100  20  10   0   0
WACO, TX              50  62  39  59  36 / 100  20  10   0   0
PARIS, TX             54  62  39  54  33 / 100  50  20  10   0
DENTON, TX            50  59  38  54  32 / 100  20  10   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          51  61  37  54  32 / 100  40  20   0   0
DALLAS, TX            52  62  40  56  36 / 100  30  10   0   0
TERRELL, TX           52  62  39  56  36 / 100  40  10   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         53  63  40  59  35 / 100  30  10   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            49  63  39  61  34 /  90  20  10   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
325 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-301100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
325 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. THE ATMOSPHERE
IS PRIMED FOR ROTATING STORMS...AND TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A TORNADO WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH 8 PM. SEVERAL TORNADOES
HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WINDS TO 60 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...NAMELY WITH A SQUALL LINE
EXPECTED TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FINALLY...
LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT...AS SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. LOOK
FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO SHIFT EAST OF
INTERSTATE 35 AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...AS AN UPPER LOW ROTATES OUT OF THE
AREA AND A COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING EAST. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL EXPAND TO INCLUDE ALL OF NORTH TEXAS BY
THURSDAY MORNING AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD END NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND ACROSS AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
445 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0430 PM     HAIL             TROY                    31.20N  97.31W
12/29/2006  E0.88 INCH       BELL               TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORT OF NICKEL HAIL IN TROY FROM BELL COUNTY EM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
455 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TORNADO          CENTERVILLE             31.26N  95.98W
12/29/2006                   LEON               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BRYAN DPS REPORTS 2 BARNS DAMAGED ON CR 977 NR CR 210 IN
            LEON COUNTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
456 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     TORNADO          GROESBECK               31.52N  96.53W
12/29/2006                   LIMESTONE          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            *** 1 FATAL, 12 INJ *** 12 INJURED 1 FATALITY NEAR
            GROESBECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
458 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TORNADO          CENTERVILLE             31.26N  95.98W
12/29/2006                   LEON               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BRYAN DPS REPORTS RESIDENCE AND BARN DAMAGED AT FM 2045
            AND CR 4025 INTERSECTION

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
500 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TORNADO          CENTERVILLE             31.26N  95.98W
12/29/2006                   LEON               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BRYAN DPS REPORTS POWER LINES DOWN NEAR OSR AND
            NORMANGEE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
513 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

TXZ107-292345-

HOPKINS-
513 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN HOPKINS COUNTY

AT 513 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES WEST OF WINNSBORO...MOVING NORTH AT 35
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE COMO.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3288 9564 3282 9543 3326 9522 3334 9548

92