Storm Warning 255, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 281259
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST THU DEC 28 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-290300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 990 MB LOW 800 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND INTENSIFIES TO 949 MB
THU NIGHT 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. THIS LOW THEN WEAKENS
TO 963 MB FRI AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INLAND NEAR SEWARD. A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH FRI NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-290300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST THU DEC 28 2006

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 65 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
28 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...NE WIND 60 KT BECOMING SW 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 33 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-290300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST THU DEC 28 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-290300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST THU DEC 28 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-290300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST THU DEC 28 2006

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-290300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST THU DEC 28 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-290300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST THU DEC 28 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-290300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST THU DEC 28 2006

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-290300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST THU DEC 28 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-290300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST THU DEC 28 2006

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AST WED DEC 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IN SOUTHERN ALASKA. THE MAIN
LOW NEAR COLD BAY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE A WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH IT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE BIG ISSUE
WITH THIS FRONT IS THAT THE TRIPLE POINT WAS EXPECTED TO GO OVER
KODIAK ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. INSTEAD
OF TAKING THIS PATH IT IS A BIT STRONGER AND ABOUT 150 MILES FURTHER
EAST THAN ANTICIPATED. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY END UP MOVING ON SHORE
NEAR KAMISHAK BAY THIS EVENING AS IT ROTATES TOWARD THE ANCHOR LOW
NEAR COLD BAY.THIS IS CAUSING A FEW CHANGES IN THE WEATHER.
THE STRONGER AND FURTHER EAST TRACK OF THIS LOW HAS INCREASED THE
WINDS IN THE BARREN ISLAND AREA TO HURRICANE FORCE. IT ALSO DELAYED
THE PRECIPITATION IN KODIAK FROM BECOMING RAIN LONGER THAN IT
OTHERWISE WOULD HAVE. HIGH WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED IN TURNAGAIN ARM
BUT THEY ARE DELAYED SOME AS WELL BY THE DEVIATION OF THE LOW FROM
THE FORECASTED PATH. THE CORDOVA HIGH WIND WARNING STILL LOOKS GOOD.

THE OTHER BIG UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS LOW IS THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. DUE TO THE LACK OF OBSERVATION POINTS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW IT HAS BENN DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN JUST HOW WARM
THIS SYSTEM IS BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS THAT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW EXCEPT FOR PLACES ON THE IMMEDIATE GULF
COAST.

THE COLD BAY LOW IS STILL IN POSITION TO CAUSE BLIZZARD WARNINGS TO
CONTINUE IN NUMEROUS ZONES. THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE THE PERPETUAL BLIZZARD AND IT WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW.
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA ALSO HAVE BLIZZARD WARNINGS IN
EFFECT. EASTERN ALEUTIANS HAVE A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THURSDAY.

ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS LOW BEARS CLOSE WATCHING AS
IT HAS THE POSSIBLY OF EITHER LARGE AMOUNTS OF SNOW OR RAIN. RAIN IS
LIKELY ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND SNOW LIKELY INLAND. THIS
THINKING COULD CHANGE GREATLY BY THE TIME THE LOW MAKES IT INTO THE
NORTH GULF HOWEVER.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THE FIRST 42
HOURS. BOTH HOWEVER DID NOT PICK UP ON THE LOW CURRENTLY EAST OF
KODIAK ISLAND. THE NAM HAS HAD A LITTLE BETTER HANDLE ON THE POSITION
AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW THAT IS NEAR COLD BAY. THE GFS IS A BIT
FASTER THAN THE NAM WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE LAST TWO GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW FROM 48 TO 72 HOURS OUT.
GFS IT ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND UKMET TRACKS OF THIS LOW SO I
HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS AT THIS TIME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 155 187 195.
         HIGH WIND WARNING 101 135.
         BLIZZARD WATCH 185.
MARINE...GALE 121 125 132 140 150 155 160 165 171 172 179 180 185.
         STORM 120 138 170.
         HURRICANE FORCE 130.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 140 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ DEC 06