Gale Warning 1053, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AST TUE DEC 26 2006

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL HEMISPHERIC SCALE TROUGH PERSISTS OVER
THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA. THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN PLACE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A COMPLEX SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR
WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY WEAKEN.

THIS SET UP WILL BRING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO A LARGE PORTION OF
SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THE BRISTOL BAY AREA HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. WITH
THE LOW BECOMING STATIONARY OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA THE TIGHT
NORTHEAST GRADIENT OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE CONTINUING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL KEEP BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN THE PRIBILOFS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

KODIAK ISLAND HAS A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY DUE TO THIS SYSTEM
AS WELL. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW SHOULD BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AND THE BEGIN TO TURN TO RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THE NORTHERN COOK INLET AREA HAS SEEN SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL TODAY DUE
TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION
WITH MARINE STRATUS THAT FORMED OVER NORTHERN COOK INLET. THE SHORT
WAVE HAS HELPED PRODUCE JUST ENOUGH LIFTING THE PRECIPITATE OUT SOME
OF THE MOISTURE. THIS WILL ALSO DIMINISH THE THREAT OF FOG AS THE
MOISTURE IS BEING PRECIPITATED OUT OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM BUT DIFFER GREATLY AS
TIME GOES ON. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR A STRONG LOW MOVING INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOUR
DIFFERENT MODELS GIVE FOUR DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE GFS MODEL REMAINS THE MOST CONSISTENT RUN TO RUN SOME THERE IS
GREATER CONFIDENCE IN IT THAT OTHER MODELS AT THIS TIME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 161 195.
MARINE...GALE 121 125 141 150 155 160 165 179 180 185.
         STORM 120 130 132 138 140 172
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 160 165 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

DEC 06