Gale Warning 1054, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST WED DEC 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WITH RIDGES OVER THE GULF OF AK AND WEST OF KAMCHATKA THIS
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE A COMPLEX LOW IS SOUTH OF COLD BAY WITH
SEVERAL LOBES CIRCULATING INTO BRISTOL BAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN
BERING. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ARE LOCATED OVER MUCH OF MAINLAND AK AND
OVER KAMCHATKA.

THE NAM HAD THE BEST HANDLE ON THE COMPLEX LOW SOUTH OF COLD BAY...SO
THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST LEANS IN THAT DIRECTION. AFTER 36
HOURS OR SO THE MODELS DIVERGE. THE GFS SEEMED MOST REASONABLE IN
BRINGING A NORTH PACIFIC LOW STRAIGHT NORTH TO NEAR THE KENAI ON FRI.

IN THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS...THE LOW MOVING ACROSS COLD BAY WILL
BRING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TO ITS WEST AND NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD
KEEP BLIZZARD CONDITIONS OVER THE PRIBILOFS TODAY WITH STRONG WIND
AND SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE CHAIN. AS THE TROUGH OVER BRISTOL BAY AND
THE AK PEN SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS WILL SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. BY FRI A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

OVER SOUTHWEST AK...THE COLD BAY LOW WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW OVER THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE EXCEPT WHERE RAIN IS
FALLING. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA AND SNOW WILL ENTER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.
AS THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES ACROSS KODIAK ISLAND AND INTO THE
NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THIS EVENING...ADDITIONAL SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. SOME DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
NORTH PACIFIC LOW.

SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AK RANGE...THE FRONT CROSSING KODIAK ISLAND
TODAY AND HEADING TOWARD THE NORTH GULF COAST IS THE BIG WEATHER
MAKER. MODELS HAVE A BIT OF A COOL BIAS THIS MORNING...AND RAIN WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S HAVE AFFECTED MUCH OF KODIAK ISLAND AND
ARE APPROACHING THE KENAI. IT APPEARS THAT SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN WILL
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA...BUT THAT COLD AIR WILL
REMAIN ENTRENCHED FURTHER INLAND. THIS MEANS LIGHT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
FOR INLAND ZONES...WITH SOME TURNAGAIN WINDS AND DOWNSLOPING FOR THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL. UPSLOPE SIDES OF MOUNTAINS WILL BE FAVORED LOCATIONS
FOR SNOWFALL TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND FLOW BECOMES SOUTH ON
THU AND WARM AIR WILL PENETRATE TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL...BUT SHOULD
STILL YIELD LIGHT SNOW OVER THE AREA. THU NIGHT INTO FRI THE NEXT LOW
TEARS NORTH TOWARD THE KENAI. THIS APPEARS TO HAVE PLENTY OF WARM AIR
WITH IT WHICH WILL BRING RAIN ON FRI TO THE NORTH GULF COAST AND HAS
THE POTENTIAL OF ALSO THREATENING THE INLAND SNOWPACK WITH RAIN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 155 161 187 195
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...121 129 130 140 179 180 185
         STORMS...120 130 138 160 170
         GALES...121 125 132 140 150 155 165 171 172 179 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS DEC 06