Gale Warning 1055, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM AST WED DEC 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY IN SOUTHERN ALASKA. THE MAIN
LOW NEAR COLD BAY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE A WEATHER FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH IT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE BIG ISSUE
WITH THIS FRONT IS THAT THE TRIPLE POINT WAS EXPECTED TO GO OVER
KODIAK ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. INSTEAD
OF TAKING THIS PATH IT IS A BIT STRONGER AND ABOUT 150 MILES FURTHER
EAST THAN ANTICIPATED. THIS LOW WILL LIKELY END UP MOVING ON SHORE
NEAR KAMISHAK BAY THIS EVENING AS IT ROTATES TOWARD THE ANCHOR LOW
NEAR COLD BAY.THIS IS CAUSING A FEW CHANGES IN THE WEATHER.
THE STRONGER AND FURTHER EAST TRACK OF THIS LOW HAS INCREASED THE
WINDS IN THE BARREN ISLAND AREA TO HURRICANE FORCE. IT ALSO DELAYED
THE PRECIPITATION IN KODIAK FROM BECOMING RAIN LONGER THAN IT
OTHERWISE WOULD HAVE. HIGH WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED IN TURNAGAIN ARM
BUT THEY ARE DELAYED SOME AS WELL BY THE DEVIATION OF THE LOW FROM
THE FORECASTED PATH. THE CORDOVA HIGH WIND WARNING STILL LOOKS GOOD.

THE OTHER BIG UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS LOW IS THE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. DUE TO THE LACK OF OBSERVATION POINTS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LOW IT HAS BENN DIFFICULT TO ASCERTAIN JUST HOW WARM
THIS SYSTEM IS BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS THAT MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW EXCEPT FOR PLACES ON THE IMMEDIATE GULF
COAST.

THE COLD BAY LOW IS STILL IN POSITION TO CAUSE BLIZZARD WARNINGS TO
CONTINUE IN NUMEROUS ZONES. THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE THE PERPETUAL BLIZZARD AND IT WILL PERSIST INTO TOMORROW.
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND KUSKOKWIM DELTA ALSO HAVE BLIZZARD WARNINGS IN
EFFECT. EASTERN ALEUTIANS HAVE A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THURSDAY.

ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FROM THE
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THIS LOW BEARS CLOSE WATCHING AS
IT HAS THE POSSIBLY OF EITHER LARGE AMOUNTS OF SNOW OR RAIN. RAIN IS
LIKELY ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST AND SNOW LIKELY INLAND. THIS
THINKING COULD CHANGE GREATLY BY THE TIME THE LOW MAKES IT INTO THE
NORTH GULF HOWEVER.

BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THE FIRST 42
HOURS. BOTH HOWEVER DID NOT PICK UP ON THE LOW CURRENTLY EAST OF
KODIAK ISLAND. THE NAM HAS HAD A LITTLE BETTER HANDLE ON THE POSITION
AND MOVEMENT OF THE LOW THAT IS NEAR COLD BAY. THE GFS IS A BIT
FASTER THAN THE NAM WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LOW INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE LAST TWO GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN
VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW FROM 48 TO 72 HOURS OUT.
GFS IT ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF AND UKMET TRACKS OF THIS LOW SO I
HAVE DECENT CONFIDENCE IN THE GFS AT THIS TIME.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 155 187 195.
         HIGH WIND WARNING 101 135.
         BLIZZARD WATCH 185.
MARINE...GALE 121 125 132 140 150 155 160 165 171 172 179 180 185.
         STORM 120 138 170.
         HURRICANE FORCE 130.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 140 179 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

EZ DEC 06