Storm Warning 20, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 230036
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST SUN JAN 22 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-231500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 987 MB LOW OVER WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND MOVES TO 130 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SITKA AND WEAKENS TO 1013 MB TUESDAY AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ120-231500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST SUN JAN 22 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-231500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST SUN JAN 22 2006

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-231500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST SUN JAN 22 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S TO SW WIND TO 30 KT BECOMING NE WIND 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO
40 KT IN BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT IN BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 4
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-231500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST SUN JAN 22 2006

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-231500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST SUN JAN 22 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW TO W WIND 45 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-231500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST SUN JAN 22 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 55 KT SOUTH OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS
22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT...STRONGEST SOUTH OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS 15 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-231500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST SUN JAN 22 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT NEAR BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 9
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-231500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST SUN JAN 22 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND...NW WIND 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND. SEAS 8
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE ...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-231500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST SUN JAN 22 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM AST SAT JAN 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...GFS MODEL INITIALIZED BEST ON MSLP FIELD. FORECAST
TRENDS IN GENERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE AGREEMENT WITH ETA/UKMET. SHORT TERM
HANDLING OF GULF WEATHER MAKER NEAR KODIAK THIS AFTERNOON IS DONE
BEST BY THE GFS. FULL WEATHER DAY...SO KEEP EYE OUT FOR FORECAST
ADJUSTMENTS.

.EAST...18Z SFC ANAL SHOWS 975 MB LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST OF KODIAK
ISLAND. AT THAT TIME...ARCTIC BOUNDARY EXTENDED JUST WEST OF KODIAK
CITY...W OF BARREN ISLANDS...JUST SOUTH OF SEWARD...JUST WEST
PORTAGE...TO ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST NORTH OF CORDOVA. 850 MB
TEMPS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL HAVE RISEN ABOUT 5C OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
EROSION OF COLD DOME OVER COOK INLET IS EVIDENT BY DOWNSLOPE
SIGNATURES ON SAT PIX AND KENAI RADAR. FOR THE TIME BEING SNOW IN
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN COOK
INLET/SUSITNA VALLEY. SNOW WILL FILL IN TONIGHT ONCE LOW MOVES UP
OVER THE EASTERN KENAI PEN AND EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND(PWS). THIS IS THE TIME THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL LIKELY INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ALSO LIKELY FOR ZONE 131 TONIGHT
WITH ONSET OF DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR SAME ZONE
ONCE THEY DEVELOP THIS EVENING SHOULD END BY MORNING. RAIN WILL BE
GENERAL CASE OVER REMAINDER OF THE NORTH GULF COAST. STRONG NW WINDS
LIKELY TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN COOK INLET AND WESTERN GULF. THESE WINDS
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

SNOWS SHOULD STARTING LETTING UP SOME LATER SUN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AS
SURFACE CENTER OVER PWS SHIFTS ESE AND WEAKENS. COLD ADVECTION SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER KACHEMAK BAY TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUN EVENING.

.WEST...SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN CENTRAL BERING SEA RIDGE AND GULF LOW
ARE PRODUCING BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS/PRIBILOFS TO OVER THE SW MAINLAND/AK PEN. COLD TEMPS OVER
SW AK COMBINED WITH WINDS ARE AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOW WIND
CHILLS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR COMING OFF ICE PAC NORTH OF
THE PRIBILOFS WILL CONTINUE BLOWING SNOW WITH BLIZZARD/NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH SUN MORNING. RIDGE MAKES SOME
HEADWAY EAST SUN AND GULF CENTER WEAKENS...SO SHOULD SEE WINDS AND
BLOWING SNOW SUBSIDING. DEVELOPING WEST PAC LOW MOVES SW OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUN. STRONG SE WINDS AHEAD OF CENTER LIKELY SUN
NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNINGS 131 AND 195. HEAVY SNOW WARNING 131.
UPCOMING HIGH WIND WATCH FOR ZONE 191 SUN NIGHT. NUMEROUS ADVISORIES.

MARINE...NUMEROUS GALES AND STORMS. SEE AFTERNOON PACKAGE FOR
         DETAILS.

RMC JAN 06