Small Craft Advisory 65, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM AST SAT JAN 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...GFS MODEL INITIALIZED BEST ON MSLP FIELD. FORECAST
TRENDS IN GENERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE AGREEMENT WITH ETA/UKMET. SHORT TERM
HANDLING OF GULF WEATHER MAKER NEAR KODIAK THIS AFTERNOON IS DONE
BEST BY THE GFS. FULL WEATHER DAY...SO KEEP EYE OUT FOR FORECAST
ADJUSTMENTS.

.EAST...18Z SFC ANAL SHOWS 975 MB LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST OF KODIAK
ISLAND. AT THAT TIME...ARCTIC BOUNDARY EXTENDED JUST WEST OF KODIAK
CITY...W OF BARREN ISLANDS...JUST SOUTH OF SEWARD...JUST WEST
PORTAGE...TO ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST NORTH OF CORDOVA. 850 MB
TEMPS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL HAVE RISEN ABOUT 5C OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
EROSION OF COLD DOME OVER COOK INLET IS EVIDENT BY DOWNSLOPE
SIGNATURES ON SAT PIX AND KENAI RADAR. FOR THE TIME BEING SNOW IN
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN COOK
INLET/SUSITNA VALLEY. SNOW WILL FILL IN TONIGHT ONCE LOW MOVES UP
OVER THE EASTERN KENAI PEN AND EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND(PWS). THIS IS THE TIME THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL LIKELY INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ALSO LIKELY FOR ZONE 131 TONIGHT
WITH ONSET OF DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR SAME ZONE
ONCE THEY DEVELOP THIS EVENING SHOULD END BY MORNING. RAIN WILL BE
GENERAL CASE OVER REMAINDER OF THE NORTH GULF COAST. STRONG NW WINDS
LIKELY TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN COOK INLET AND WESTERN GULF. THESE WINDS
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

SNOWS SHOULD STARTING LETTING UP SOME LATER SUN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AS
SURFACE CENTER OVER PWS SHIFTS ESE AND WEAKENS. COLD ADVECTION SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER KACHEMAK BAY TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUN EVENING.

.WEST...SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN CENTRAL BERING SEA RIDGE AND GULF LOW
ARE PRODUCING BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS/PRIBILOFS TO OVER THE SW MAINLAND/AK PEN. COLD TEMPS OVER
SW AK COMBINED WITH WINDS ARE AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOW WIND
CHILLS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR COMING OFF ICE PAC NORTH OF
THE PRIBILOFS WILL CONTINUE BLOWING SNOW WITH BLIZZARD/NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH SUN MORNING. RIDGE MAKES SOME
HEADWAY EAST SUN AND GULF CENTER WEAKENS...SO SHOULD SEE WINDS AND
BLOWING SNOW SUBSIDING. DEVELOPING WEST PAC LOW MOVES SW OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUN. STRONG SE WINDS AHEAD OF CENTER LIKELY SUN
NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNINGS 131 AND 195. HEAVY SNOW WARNING 131.
UPCOMING HIGH WIND WATCH FOR ZONE 191 SUN NIGHT. NUMEROUS ADVISORIES.

MARINE...NUMEROUS GALES AND STORMS. SEE AFTERNOON PACKAGE FOR
         DETAILS.

RMC JAN 06