Gale Warning 78, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 230006
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST SUN JAN 22 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-231500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...A 949 MB LOW 750 NM
SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA MOVES NORTHWEST AND WEAKENS. A 960 MB LOW MOVES
TO 400 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA MONDAY EVENING. THIS LOW MOVES TO 550
NM WEST OF SHEMYA AT 955 MB TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A 970 MB LOW MOVES TO
100 NM SOUTHEAST OF SHEMYA MONDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW MOVES TO 270 NM
NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA AT 963 MB TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  

$$

PKZ150-231500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST SUN JAN 22 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-231500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST SUN JAN 22 2006

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-231500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST SUN JAN 22 2006

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATER 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-231500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST SUN JAN 22 2006

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-231500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST SUN JAN 22 2006

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT.  PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. 
.WED...E WIND 25 KT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ170-231500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST SUN JAN 22 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-231500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST SUN JAN 22 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-231500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST SUN JAN 22 2006

...STORM WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 70 KT. SEAS 22 FT. PATCHY FOG.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-231500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST SUN JAN 22 2006

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...SE WIND 50 KT. GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEAS 24 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-231500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST SUN JAN 22 2006

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KTS INCREASING TO 55 KT BY MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
70 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 24 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21 FT.
PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 35 KTS TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 23
FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-231500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST SUN JAN 22 2006

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT.  
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT.  
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. 
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT.  
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT.  

$$

PKZ179-231500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST SUN JAN 22 2006

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON. SEAS 
BUILDING TO 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM AST SAT JAN 21 2006

.DISCUSSION...GFS MODEL INITIALIZED BEST ON MSLP FIELD. FORECAST
TRENDS IN GENERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE AGREEMENT WITH ETA/UKMET. SHORT TERM
HANDLING OF GULF WEATHER MAKER NEAR KODIAK THIS AFTERNOON IS DONE
BEST BY THE GFS. FULL WEATHER DAY...SO KEEP EYE OUT FOR FORECAST
ADJUSTMENTS.

.EAST...18Z SFC ANAL SHOWS 975 MB LOW ALONG THE EAST COAST OF KODIAK
ISLAND. AT THAT TIME...ARCTIC BOUNDARY EXTENDED JUST WEST OF KODIAK
CITY...W OF BARREN ISLANDS...JUST SOUTH OF SEWARD...JUST WEST
PORTAGE...TO ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST NORTH OF CORDOVA. 850 MB
TEMPS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL HAVE RISEN ABOUT 5C OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.
EROSION OF COLD DOME OVER COOK INLET IS EVIDENT BY DOWNSLOPE
SIGNATURES ON SAT PIX AND KENAI RADAR. FOR THE TIME BEING SNOW IN
SOUTHCENTRAL WILL BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN COOK
INLET/SUSITNA VALLEY. SNOW WILL FILL IN TONIGHT ONCE LOW MOVES UP
OVER THE EASTERN KENAI PEN AND EVENTUALLY INTO WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND(PWS). THIS IS THE TIME THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL LIKELY INTO
SOUTHCENTRAL. SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ALSO LIKELY FOR ZONE 131 TONIGHT
WITH ONSET OF DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR SAME ZONE
ONCE THEY DEVELOP THIS EVENING SHOULD END BY MORNING. RAIN WILL BE
GENERAL CASE OVER REMAINDER OF THE NORTH GULF COAST. STRONG NW WINDS
LIKELY TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN COOK INLET AND WESTERN GULF. THESE WINDS
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

SNOWS SHOULD STARTING LETTING UP SOME LATER SUN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AS
SURFACE CENTER OVER PWS SHIFTS ESE AND WEAKENS. COLD ADVECTION SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW WHICH WILL DEVELOP OVER KACHEMAK BAY TONIGHT WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUN EVENING.

.WEST...SQUEEZE PLAY BETWEEN CENTRAL BERING SEA RIDGE AND GULF LOW
ARE PRODUCING BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS FROM THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS/PRIBILOFS TO OVER THE SW MAINLAND/AK PEN. COLD TEMPS OVER
SW AK COMBINED WITH WINDS ARE AND WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOW WIND
CHILLS INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR COMING OFF ICE PAC NORTH OF
THE PRIBILOFS WILL CONTINUE BLOWING SNOW WITH BLIZZARD/NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH SUN MORNING. RIDGE MAKES SOME
HEADWAY EAST SUN AND GULF CENTER WEAKENS...SO SHOULD SEE WINDS AND
BLOWING SNOW SUBSIDING. DEVELOPING WEST PAC LOW MOVES SW OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUN. STRONG SE WINDS AHEAD OF CENTER LIKELY SUN
NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNINGS 131 AND 195. HEAVY SNOW WARNING 131.
UPCOMING HIGH WIND WATCH FOR ZONE 191 SUN NIGHT. NUMEROUS ADVISORIES.

MARINE...NUMEROUS GALES AND STORMS. SEE AFTERNOON PACKAGE FOR
         DETAILS.

RMC JAN 06