Storm Warning 177, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 211156
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT SAT OCT 21 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-220200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 992 MB LOW NEAR 58N 145W WILL MOVE TO 60N 146W THIS AFTERNOON AND
THEN MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. A 988 MB LOW NEAR 56N 157W
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 58N 153W AT 993 MB EARLY SUN MORNING.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO 59N 146W SUN AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATE SUN NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-220200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT SAT OCT 21 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING W BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  
$$

PKZ121-220200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT SAT OCT 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ125-220200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT SAT OCT 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
$$

PKZ129-220200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT SAT OCT 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.TONIGHT AND SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
$$

PKZ130-220200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT SAT OCT 21 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  
$$

PKZ132-220200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT SAT OCT 21 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
$$

PKZ138-220200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT SAT OCT 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ140-220200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT SAT OCT 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

PKZ141-220200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT SAT OCT 21 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO W 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
530 PM ADT FRI OCT 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY TILTED AMPLIFYING
TROUGH BETWEEN 150W AND 170W. MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM
THE TROPICS TO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE CIRRUS SHIELD IS ALREADY
OVERSPREADING EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS NOW APPEARING ON THE MIDDLETON RADAR. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS
LOCATED AROUND 52N 147W AND TRACKING NORTHWARD. THIS IS THE MAIN
FEATURE OF CONCERN FOR SOUTHCENTRALS FORECAST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON SLOWLY DEEPENING THIS LOW AS IT
TRACKS TOWARD PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH COLD AIR FEEDING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM
AND THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION IS THE EXACT TRACK WHEN IT REACHES THE NORTH GULF
COAST. THE 12Z MODEL RUNS WERE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE LOW WOULD
TRACK TO NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND THEN
ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN LATE SATURDAY. THE 18Z NAM INDICATES A
TRACK EAST OF CORDOVA. THIS WOULD HAVE HUGE RAMIFICATIONS ON THE
FORECAST FOR WEST OF THE COASTAL RANGE INCLUDING ANCHORAGE. TAKING
A CLOSER LOOK AT THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...THERE IS A STRONG WESTERLY
JET RIDING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL AID IN MAINTAINING A
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN...MEANING THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE GULF
SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD WHILE THE LOW IS PUSHED
NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...AS THE TROUGH BECOMES MORE NEGATIVELY TILTED
THE LOW WOULD BE PUSHED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD. BOTTOM LINE...THERE IS
HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIP FORECAST FOR WEST OF PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND. FOR NOW...WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE
12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS AND PROVIDE A LITTLE LESS DETAIL IN PARTS OF THE
FORECASTS UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEAR WHERE THE LOW IS HEADED.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE FORECAST...GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE TRACK OF
THE LOW. LOTS OF RAIN FOR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND SNOW IN THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN. PORTIONS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL LIKELY
SEE ADVISORY AMOUNTS (6 INCHES)...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT TO FINE TUNE
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW WILL JUST UP CURRENT ADVERTISED AMOUNTS. WEST OF
THE COASTAL RANGE...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF OVERUNNING PRECIP AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO COOK INLET
AND SUSITNA VALLEY SATURDAY...SO IF THERE IS MOISTURE PRESENT
FREEZING LEVELS WILL QUICKLY DROP AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE FIRST SNOWFALL NEAR SEA LEVEL. EVEN WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE...DO
NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

OUT WEST...A MATURE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND
AND PRODUCE DECENT SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING AND INTO THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THIS LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT OFF TO THE NORTH THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND SHOWERS. A DEVELOPING
LOW IS CURRENTLY TRACKING TOWARD THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE NEAR
ZONAL WESTERLY JET WILL TRACK THIS LOW QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BERING SATURDAY AND THEN INTO THE GULF SUNDAY. MORE LOWS
WILL BE ON ITS TAIL HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE WESTERLY JET
REMAINS NEAR 50N.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 130 150 155 AND 176.

SEB OCT 06