Gale Warning 794, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT FRI OCT 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND ALASKA THIS MORNING.
A DEEP TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE BERING SEA TO NEARLY THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THIS LOW IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH A LARGE RIDGE OFF THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE LOWER 48 STATES.

TWO LOWS OF INTEREST WILL BE DEVELOPING TODAY. ONE IS SPINNING UP IN
THE SOUTHERLY FETCH ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE BERING TROUGH. THIS LOW
WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN GULF THIS EVENING AND LOOKS TO MAKE LANDFALL
NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE SECOND IS FORMING IN
THE FAST WESTERLY JET RUNNING ALONG 50 DEGREES LATITUDE WEST OF THE
ALEUTIANS. THIS LOW WILL REACH ATTU THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN BERING SEA THIS EVENING. IT WILL REACH SAINT GEORGE ON
SATURDAY MIDDAY...ABOUT THE SAME TIME THE FIRST LOW MOVES INLAND.

AFTER SATURDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO OFFER DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS...
THOUGH IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN RUNS FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION WILL BE OVER THE BERING
SEA AND/OR OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH NEXT WEEK...FOR CONTINUED
WET WEATHER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 120.
         GALE WARNING 121 125 129 130 132 155 170 172 175 176 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG OCT 06